TOPIC: Vaccine and masking debate, trying to shift this off the gencon update thread

balthasar wrote:

Fred K wrote: Even if you aren’t a baseball fan, you should pay attention to what just happened with the Yankees. 8 players just tested positive for Covid. All 8 had been vaccinated. 1 even had caught Covid previously and recovered. None got seriously ill because they were vaccinated (and in amazing health - professional athletes and all.)

www.nytimes.com/2021/05/13/sports/baseball/gleyber-torres-yankees-covid.html

It isn’t good news. Breakthrough cases were supposed to be exceedingly rare. These happening means Covid can continue to infect and, more importantly, mutate. Each generation of serious mutations brings us closer to the vaccines not working. As is, you can still catch Covid while vaccinated and get seriously ill. It looks like some people have died from breakthrough cases. That data should start being reported next week.

I saw the article and it just took the wind out of my sails about going to GenCon. I went from 90% likely to go and stay masked (fully vaccinated with Pfizer) to maybe 50/50. If we get the Indian variant here, that drops to maybe 20%.

Fred

I believe it was only one player that contracted Covid, but this is still an example of vaccinated people contracting, and most likely spreading, the virus. I was okay with how things were going until the CDC came out and said vaccinated people are fine indoors without masks. People are just going to lie and say they got the shot/s and go unmasked, creating more chances for transmission. We will see variants in the US between now and September, so I am hoping Gen Con sticks with the mask requirement.

You are right, only 1 of the 8 who contracted Covid was a player.

The piece that is baffling is breakthrough transmission is supposed to be exceedingly rare. In this case, it was 8 people out of what, 75? (I have no idea how many staff support a baseball team - the team itself is something like 25 players.)

Even 8 out of 75 is higher than what was expected. The new variants are much more infectious than prior versions.

And, yes, there will be dishonest people who claim to be vaccinated and wander without masks. I have definitely had my eyes open3d regarding how many terrible people are in this country. Naively, I thought maybe 5% or 10% of the population would resist masks and vaccines and that they would drop it when they saw everyone else was doing it. Nope. I have definitely walked away from people who I considered casual friends that I will never associate with again because they demonstrated a profound lack of consideration for other humans.

Fred K wrote: The piece that is baffling is breakthrough transmission is supposed to be exceedingly rare. In this case, it was 8 people out of what, 75? (I have no idea how many staff support a baseball team - the team itself is something like 25 players.)

Even 8 out of 75 is higher than what was expected. The new variants are much more infectious than prior versions

I'll admit up front, I've not followed things nearly as closely as you have Fred and you have a lot more knowledge on this than I do. So I'm a bit curious. You mention that breakthrough transmission is supposed to be exceedingly rare, but I thought the J&J vaccine is only 66% efficacy. Doesn't that mean that there's a 33% chance you'll still get Covid with the vaccine? In that case the numbers don't seem out of line to me. The vaccine still appears to be useful since all 8 were asymptomatic. Seeking knowledge since it sounds like maybe I'm misunderstanding.

Fiddy wrote:

Fred K wrote: The piece that is baffling is breakthrough transmission is supposed to be exceedingly rare. In this case, it was 8 people out of what, 75? (I have no idea how many staff support a baseball team - the team itself is something like 25 players.)

Even 8 out of 75 is higher than what was expected. The new variants are much more infectious than prior versions

I'll admit up front, I've not followed things nearly as closely as you have Fred and you have a lot more knowledge on this than I do. So I'm a bit curious. You mention that breakthrough transmission is supposed to be exceedingly rare, but I thought the J&J vaccine is only 66% efficacy. Doesn't that mean that there's a 33% chance you'll still get Covid with the vaccine? In that case the numbers don't seem out of line to me. The vaccine still appears to be useful since all 8 were asymptomatic. Seeking knowledge since it sounds like maybe I'm misunderstanding.

That was my understanding also. It made it less likely that you would get COVID, but almost certain that you wouldn't get seriously ill or die.

Not going to gencon. Not vaccinated but will continue to wear mask.

I find the news associated with the NY Yankees very positive news. 7 of 8 were asymptomatic and the 8th recovered quickly. All 8 had received the vaccine.

jpotter wrote:
I appreciate you answering my questions because it lets me see your point of view better. I'm guessing you have some libertarian leaning ideals, and we should never discuss politics together. Still love ya though, Picc , ya crackpot. this is a joke!

Thanks, I also want to say I respect your position and where it's coming from. And no hard feeling, I know I'm a crackpot, my wife tells me so quite often XD

jpotter wrote: I agree with the bottom part of your post in that people should be given information and allowed to express their concerns. I also totally agree it should be done in a safe manner and people shouldn't feel attacked. I'm sorry about the accusatory tone of my post. That was not cool. I'm glad you yourself got the vaccine and that you were able to come to that conclusion.

I was really taken aback reading some of these posts at the amount of apologizing people were doing for anti-vaxxers. I see a lot of people are doing this from a place of trying to respect people's personal choices.

I am of the opinion that if your personal choices endanger our society, you should probably not make them. I see people talking about smoking and driving cars. Those things can result in deaths, and so we have regulated them. You can't smoke indoors and impose your second-hand smoke on me. The problem here is I can't see who has covid. In many cases they don't even know they have it. But their choice not to get vaccinated will impact me and the community.

I suppose I'm getting a little frustrated that in an age where all of the information is very readily apparent and available, people are still getting their health advice from Joe Rogan instead of Anthony Fauci.

I 100% agree wit you here. Everyone with concerns should be talking to their doctor and not taking advice from youtubers no matter how good it sounds at the time.

I look at the outbreak with the Yankees as being somewhat positive news in the 7 out of 8 where asymptomatic and the 8th case being mild. I believe the current CDC focus is on breakthroughs resulting in hospitalization or death.

www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

Because of the time it takes for the body to mount a defense against SARS-CoV-2 infection I think it was always expected that some people would show symptoms and possibly pass on the virus. What matters is that all 3 vaccines are highly effective at preventing hospitalization and death.

Regarding the Yankees and their COVID outbreak, here's a good read:

www.nj.com/yankees/2021/05/yankees-covid-outbreak-sports-epidemiologist-explains-breakthrough-cases-of-coronavirus.html

Fiddy wrote:

Fred K wrote: The piece that is baffling is breakthrough transmission is supposed to be exceedingly rare. In this case, it was 8 people out of what, 75? (I have no idea how many staff support a baseball team - the team itself is something like 25 players.)

Even 8 out of 75 is higher than what was expected. The new variants are much more infectious than prior versions

I'll admit up front, I've not followed things nearly as closely as you have Fred and you have a lot more knowledge on this than I do. So I'm a bit curious. You mention that breakthrough transmission is supposed to be exceedingly rare, but I thought the J&J vaccine is only 66% efficacy. Doesn't that mean that there's a 33% chance you'll still get Covid with the vaccine? In that case the numbers don't seem out of line to me. The vaccine still appears to be useful since all 8 were asymptomatic. Seeking knowledge since it sounds like maybe I'm misunderstanding.

Yes, Fiddy. That is exactly how the J&J vaccine works. It has a much higher chance of you getting COVID, but extremely low chance (they say it's 0%) of your symptoms requiring hospitalization. While the other 2 require two shots and have a much higher efficacy rate, but does not guarantee reduced symptoms.

Blaine Miller wrote:

Fiddy wrote:

Fred K wrote: The piece that is baffling is breakthrough transmission is supposed to be exceedingly rare. In this case, it was 8 people out of what, 75? (I have no idea how many staff support a baseball team - the team itself is something like 25 players.)

Even 8 out of 75 is higher than what was expected. The new variants are much more infectious than prior versions

I'll admit up front, I've not followed things nearly as closely as you have Fred and you have a lot more knowledge on this than I do. So I'm a bit curious. You mention that breakthrough transmission is supposed to be exceedingly rare, but I thought the J&J vaccine is only 66% efficacy. Doesn't that mean that there's a 33% chance you'll still get Covid with the vaccine? In that case the numbers don't seem out of line to me. The vaccine still appears to be useful since all 8 were asymptomatic. Seeking knowledge since it sounds like maybe I'm misunderstanding.

Yes, Fiddy. That is exactly how the J&J vaccine works. It has a much higher chance of you getting COVID, but extremely low chance (they say it's 0%) of your symptoms requiring hospitalization. While the other 2 require two shots and have a much higher efficacy rate, but does not guarantee reduced symptoms.

The biggest advantage to J&J vaccine is it’s easier to get people to take 1 shot than 2.

Wayne Rhodes wrote:

Blaine Miller wrote:

Fiddy wrote:

Fred K wrote: The piece that is baffling is breakthrough transmission is supposed to be exceedingly rare. In this case, it was 8 people out of what, 75? (I have no idea how many staff support a baseball team - the team itself is something like 25 players.)

Even 8 out of 75 is higher than what was expected. The new variants are much more infectious than prior versions

I'll admit up front, I've not followed things nearly as closely as you have Fred and you have a lot more knowledge on this than I do. So I'm a bit curious. You mention that breakthrough transmission is supposed to be exceedingly rare, but I thought the J&J vaccine is only 66% efficacy. Doesn't that mean that there's a 33% chance you'll still get Covid with the vaccine? In that case the numbers don't seem out of line to me. The vaccine still appears to be useful since all 8 were asymptomatic. Seeking knowledge since it sounds like maybe I'm misunderstanding.

Yes, Fiddy. That is exactly how the J&J vaccine works. It has a much higher chance of you getting COVID, but extremely low chance (they say it's 0%) of your symptoms requiring hospitalization. While the other 2 require two shots and have a much higher efficacy rate, but does not guarantee reduced symptoms.

The biggest advantage to J&J vaccine is it’s easier to get people to take 1 shot than 2.

It's also worth noting that the JJ and AZ trials took place later in the fall then the Pizer/Moderna trials. The later time period had a higher base transition rate in the areas where the trials were conducted so 67% efficacy on viral vaccines v.s 97% efficacy on MRNA isnt a fair comparison.

Odds are good that if the trials had been more similar the results would have been closer as well but given the compressed timelines etc

End of the day you are statistically better off with either shot then without but it really isnt possible to say one is "better than" the other until a proper meta analysis is done.

Also, neither vaccine is an inoculation that renders you immune. They all just help your immune system reduce your chances of building up enough viral load to get visibly sick or have severe symptoms, basically all vaccines work that way as I understand it.

Once we make life hard for the virus we will still need to be careful for a few months to really break its hold on the population. I'm honestly concerned that people will get the jab assume they are immune and go back fo business as usual.

Next winter once every has the shot and infection rates jump in cold and flue season is going to be the really telling period. Personally I feel like any large gatherings before that are kind of irresponsible if we take the virus (or more importantly its mutations) as a credible threat.

September and October will be the time to see if we truly out of the woods, as that is usually the start of the cold/flu season, and it was the beginning of the worst Covid wave here in the US last year. I am really hoping Gen Con just sticks with requiring masks.