TOPIC: Please Read This - Jeff Talks About 2024 Recipes and Such

What’s the cost to make Relsa’s or Pharacus vs the cost to buy it? I suspect the calculation varies dramatically by legendary. The old ones are a lot less TG, so if you’re going to build one, the oldest ones are where you should start.

Daniel White wrote: Rob, I agree with you on that last point. It's been a long time since legendary and TG prices have been close. That's how long TG prices have been out of whack for.

I remember when...

Aragonite was $30, Fleece was $70, GP was $20 for 1K and Oil and Bismuth were around $20 and DS and MH were half of what they are right now.

Daniel White wrote:

Currently, the "optimal" approach to the market (ignoring effort and transaction costs) would simply be to sell all your TG and buy any relics or legendries you need.

If this is the "optimal" approach, who is going to be making the relics and legendries to sell?

Grizwald wrote:

Daniel White wrote:

Currently, the "optimal" approach to the market (ignoring effort and transaction costs) would simply be to sell all your TG and buy any relics or legendries you need.

If this is the "optimal" approach, who is going to be making the relics and legendries to sell?

The people who have so many TG they can’t possibly sell them all? Or maybe no one makes them and the entire market supply is what comes out of treasure?

Wow...thank you all for very detailed feedback. I am lucky to have your input on these matters.

There was a lot of analysis given here -- but as we all know coming up with the right data set is a tough task. We will have to just disagree on what price points should be used.

We both can be right if we use differing data -- and we also both can be wrong. I am absolutely sure everyone is acting in good faith and honest intent. We just have a different idea of what measurements to use.

The TD HQ Crew is meeting tomorrow (Monday) to finalize the recipes, and we will go through your input once more -- and then we will post the final recipes soon.

Thank you all again for the input.

Thanks for having a look.

Obviously, there's data I don't have on this end, such as the change in volume of orders placed directly to TDA, but I'm hopeful you'll at least find the analysis that could be done with what I have to be useful.

Grizwald wrote:

Daniel White wrote:

Currently, the "optimal" approach to the market (ignoring effort and transaction costs) would simply be to sell all your TG and buy any relics or legendries you need.

If this is the "optimal" approach, who is going to be making the relics and legendries to sell?

Bullseye. This is a very very good question. And there's a few possible answers some people might not like to hear. If it doesn't make financial sense to burn TG's to craft a Legendary (which I agree with Daniel, it doesn't) but there's still enough of them out there then they can only be coming from a) Players who don't care they are losing money by crafting them and use their TG's to craft them anyways. b) Treasure boxes and GT goodie bags. c) Folks who are stealing them (from transmuting rooms at the Cons, counterfeiting, etc.).

People never want to believe #3 but those who disregard it are naive. These things are basically cash and if TD doesn't have good controls in place it's only a matter of time before someone takes advantage of them.

Rob F wrote:

Grizwald wrote:

Daniel White wrote:

Currently, the "optimal" approach to the market (ignoring effort and transaction costs) would simply be to sell all your TG and buy any relics or legendries you need.

If this is the "optimal" approach, who is going to be making the relics and legendries to sell?

Bullseye. This is a very very good question. And there's a few possible answers some people might not like to hear. If it doesn't make financial sense to burn TG's to craft a Legendary (which I agree with Daniel, it doesn't) but there's still enough of them out there then they can only be coming from a) Players who don't care they are losing money by crafting them and use their TG's to craft them anyways. b) Treasure boxes and GT goodie bags. c) Folks who are stealing them (from transmuting rooms at the Cons, counterfeiting, etc.).

People never want to believe #3 but those who disregard it are naive. These things are basically cash and if TD doesn't have good controls in place it's only a matter of time before someone takes advantage of them.

I think your first option is where most of them will be coming from. There are a ton of Trade Item Tokens entering circulation every year through token sales and treasure box loot. The only things to do with them other than just hoard them is either sell them directly or transmute them. There are likely a lot of people that would rather transmute tokens than sell the trade item tokens directly either because they enjoy doing it and/or because they don't want to take the time and effort to sell the hundreds/thousands of trade item tokens individually. If a ton of people that used to transmute decided to sell trade item tokens directly instead, that would probably flood the market and tank the value of trade item tokens (it would be self-correcting in other words).

Regarding #3, it seems like TD has made it pretty hard to counterfeit Legendary tokens, but I can't rule it out. It seems very unlikely there is theft from the transmuting rooms though. First, they all seem like great people. Second, it seems pretty easy for TD to know if there were any theft and then address it if there were. As long as they know for each token how many they start with, how many were transmuted, and how many were left at the end of transmuting (all easy data to know) they can know for certain if any are missing.

Mike Steele wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Grizwald wrote:

Daniel White wrote:

Currently, the "optimal" approach to the market (ignoring effort and transaction costs) would simply be to sell all your TG and buy any relics or legendries you need.

If this is the "optimal" approach, who is going to be making the relics and legendries to sell?

Bullseye. This is a very very good question. And there's a few possible answers some people might not like to hear. If it doesn't make financial sense to burn TG's to craft a Legendary (which I agree with Daniel, it doesn't) but there's still enough of them out there then they can only be coming from a) Players who don't care they are losing money by crafting them and use their TG's to craft them anyways. b) Treasure boxes and GT goodie bags. c) Folks who are stealing them (from transmuting rooms at the Cons, counterfeiting, etc.).

People never want to believe #3 but those who disregard it are naive. These things are basically cash and if TD doesn't have good controls in place it's only a matter of time before someone takes advantage of them.

I think your first option is where most of them will be coming from. There are a ton of Trade Item Tokens entering circulation every year through token sales and treasure box loot. The only things to do with them other than just hoard them is either sell them directly or transmute them. There are likely a lot of people that would rather transmute tokens than sell the trade item tokens directly either because they enjoy doing it and/or because they don't want to take the time and effort to sell the hundreds/thousands of trade item tokens individually. If a ton of people that used to transmute decided to sell trade item tokens directly instead, that would probably flood the market and tank the value of trade item tokens (it would be self-correcting in other words).

Regarding #3, it seems like TD has made it pretty hard to counterfeit Legendary tokens, but I can't rule it out. It seems very unlikely there is theft from the transmuting rooms though. First, they all seem like great people. Second, it seems pretty easy for TD to know if there were any theft and then address it if there were. As long as they know for each token how many they start with, how many were transmuted, and how many were left at the end of transmuting (all easy data to know) they can know for certain if any are missing.

I agree that the first option is where a fair amount come from. The new Map Tokens are also probably starting to suck up some additional goods too. As for #3, it wouldn't be hard at all for someone to take a few Legendaries or other Tokens. It would be rather easy from what I've seen. I don't see them auditng the TG's that were taken in and matching that up against the Tokens that were given out. They take the zip lock bags, check the TG's and then dump them into buckets and hand out the transmute. Overall people are great Mike. But there's always a few bad seeds. My wife has been in internal audit and corporate fraud prevention for 30 years. You'd be surprised how many long time "great" people get caught doing not so great stuff. Counterfeiting might be tougher with the RFID chips and serialized Tokens so that's a big improvement but those two safeguards still don't prevent someone from stealing/counterfeiting the ingredients and then transmuting to the higher dollar Tokens. The more valuable the Token (new Mythics coming) the more they need to invest in fraud prevention.

Grizwald's question ignores two important clauses in that sentence, "currently" and "ignoring effort and transaction costs."

Currently is an important word. Things are the way they are now exactly because not everyone is exercising the optimal market behavior under current conditions. If everyone were to start selling TG and buying transmutes, conditions would change. In theory, absent further intervention from TDA, the price of TG would drop low enough to make transmuting worthwhile again, and with changed market conditions, the "optimal" approach would also change. "Currently" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.

"Ignoring effort and transaction costs" is also important. For most of us, tokens are not our full time job. For some folks it will be a reasonable decision, in their personal circumstances, to take a loss on transmutation versus spending the time to sell trade goods. Optimal market behavior is not always optimal life behavior. Markets are imperfect things.

Those clauses were put there for good reasons.

they can only be coming from ... b) Treasure boxes

I'm not sure we're giving enough attention to this item in the list. I'm not denying a and c are possible, but b is very definitely a thing. Any player who pulls a relic or legendary they don't want for themselves will try to either sell or trade it, and once supply significantly exceeds demand then at least some of those people will (quite rationally) offer to sell/trade it more cheaply in order to at least get _something_ useful for it.

(aside: see my trade thread if you're looking for a +3 Turkey Leg of Smiting )

I don't personally consider lower TG values to be inherently bad, but I think anyone who does should be lobbying for way fewer relic+ in treasure boxes, because I don't think many people would intentionally set out to craft a relic+ from TGs and then sell it for way less than the value of the TGs.

Matt wrote: I'm a long invested player (and volunteer) but never a big token spender ($1k a year ish on tickets vs $2-300 ish a year on tokens for reference. Stuff like story relics are my emotional hey i'm rewarded for all the times i've played and saved/collected/traded tokens vs just going out and spending on trade goods and big token orders. So seeing stuff get priced out long past what recipes have historically been hurts some far as hey do i bother or not.

+1 to this