TOPIC: Proposed Breakdowns for 2024 Condensed

These are the breakdowns for Trade & Reserve tokens we're looking at using for 2024. Please take a look and let us know if there are any egregious errors.
1K Condensed
3 -- Alchemist's Parchment
5 -- Darkwood Plank
2 -- Distilled Healing
9 -- Dwarven Steel
1 -- Enchanter's Munition
5 -- Minotaur Hide
6 -- Mystic Silk
3 -- Philosopher's Stone
1,000 -- GP

8K Super Condensed
35 -- Alchemist's Ink
53 -- Alchemist's Parchment
12 -- Aragonite
115 -- Darkwood Plank
16 -- Distilled Healing
72 -- Dwarven Steel
10 -- Elven Bismuth
25 -- Enchanter's Munition
40 -- Minotaur Hide
134 -- Mystic Silk
10 -- Oil of Enchantment
93 -- Philosopher's Stone
44,000 -- GP

Please bear in mind this is just math plus a little bit of rounding. If something "feels" off to you, that isn't math. We'll need to see the arithmetic to support your claim.

Wow, that is almost a 1/3 drop in the quantity of Alchemist Inks from 2023. Based on current auction prices, this would result in about a 3.7% drop in the value of TGs from this year to next year.

To help others who probably were doing the same as me, here are the numbers with this year and last year:

1K Condensed

2024
3 -- Alchemist's Parchment (+1)
5 -- Darkwood Plank (+2)
2 -- Distilled Healing (-2)
9 -- Dwarven Steel (+1)
1 -- Enchanter's Munition
5 -- Minotaur Hide (-1)
6 -- Mystic Silk
3 -- Philosopher's Stone
1,000 -- GP

2023
2× Alchemist's Ink
3× Alchemist's Parchment
4× Darkwood Plank
8× Dwarven Steel
1× Enchanter's Munition
6× Minotaur Hide
6× Mystic Silk
3× Philosopher's Stone
1× 1,000 GP Gold Bar

8K Super Condensed

2024
35 -- Alchemist's Ink (-16)
53 -- Alchemist's Parchment
12 -- Aragonite
115 -- Darkwood Plank (+8)
72 -- Dwarven Steel (+8)
10 -- Elven Bismuth (-4)
25 -- Enchanter's Munition (+5)
40 -- Minotaur Hide (-8)
134 -- Mystic Silk (+17)
10 -- Oil of Enchantment
93 -- Philosopher's Stone (-12)
44,000 -- GP

2023
51× Alchemist's Ink
53× Alchemist's Parchment
12× Aragonite
107× Darkwood Plank
64× Dwarven Steel
14× Elven Bismuth
20× Enchanter's Munition
48× Minotaur Hide
117× Mystic Silk
10× Oil of Enchantment
105× Philosopher's Stone
44,000 GP

Just a thought. This isn't supported by the math. And I don't think it materially alters the total value. But if the numbers were more even (a wherever possible divisible by 4), it would probably help those that like to pool money together for an 8k order.

Proposal:

8K Super Condensed
36 -- Alchemist's Ink
52 -- Alchemist's Parchment
12 -- Aragonite
116 -- Darkwood Plank
16 -- Distilled Healing
72 -- Dwarven Steel
10 -- Elven Bismuth
24 -- Enchanter's Munition
40 -- Minotaur Hide
136 -- Mystic Silk
10 -- Oil of Enchantment
92 -- Philosopher's Stone
44,000 -- GP

Again, just a thought.

1k Condensed looks spot on to me.

8K has a little bit of variance based from my calculations. For reference, the arithmetic I'm using is as follows:
1. Determine counts of each good type by rarity. Example: Darkwood Plank has 6/6/7 tokens at Common/Uncommon/Rare respectively.
2. Multiply the counts for each rarity by the number of points it's worth in a transmute. 1/3/6 for points-based goods; 1 point for strict quantity goods. This gives us the number of "points" that's in each rarity's full set of 40 tokens.
3. Multiply each rarity's points by the number that rarity's tokens in a 10 pack. 7/2/1 for Common/Uncommon/Rare. This gives us the expected value of points for each rarity if you assumed even distribution and had 40 packs that provided 1 of each Rare.
4. Add the expected values of each good together, then multiply the sum by 3 to get 120 packs from a 1k order with perfect distribution (3 sets of all 40 Rares and Commons/Uncommons all perfectly distributed so you got 6 sets of all 40 Uncommons and 21 sets of all 40 Commons)
5. Divide non-GP trade good point values by 25 to convert points into trade goods.
6. Multiply Trade Goods by 8 (since an 8k order has 8*120 packs)

Based on that process, I have the following variances from the 8K super condensed proposed breakdowns:
Alchemist's Parchment: I predict 49 instead of 53
Dwarven Steel: I predict 74 instead of 72
Elven Bismuth: I predict 12 instead of 10
Enchanter's Munition: I predict 18 instead of 25
Philosopher's Stone: I predict 96 instead of 93

The following match my arithmetic exactly:
Alchemist's Ink
Aragonite
Darkwood Plank
Distilled Healing
Minotaur Hide
Mystic Silk
Oil of Enchantment
GP

EDIT: I had an error in my arithmetic for Alchemist's Ink based on last year's Distilled Healing exclusion calculations. After I adjusted I matched Druegar's numbers.

Beertram wrote: Wow, that is almost a 1/3 drop in the quantity of Alchemist Inks from 2023. Based on current auction prices, this would result in about a 3.7% drop in the value of TGs from this year to next year.

Values will change every year based on the new mix. If there's less Ink then Ink prices in auctions will rise.

Could we get an option for Condensed but without the Distilled Healing? So more Ink to replace the Distilled Healing?

I don't have the totals for years prior to 2023 in front of me, but the DS versus MH split might be off. For 2023, there was 25% more DS (64) than MH (48). For 2024, this looks to increase to 45% more DS (72) than MH (40). I'm not sure if that was due to a different mix of common weapons versus armor.

Beertram is correct that is is a substantial reduction in AI. Total MS went up (not necessarily a good thing - we seem to be drowning in MS the past few years.)

The Elven Bismuth amounts drops from 14 to 10. Several years ago, that would have been a big deal but values for EB and OI have dropped considerably since VTD started.

A lot of this is just driven based on which tokens are printed - some years we have more potions, common armor, etc.. That may be the only driver here.

I'm not certain the net trade good secondary market value is different from 2023, though. MH v DS seems a wash since the total is the same. Fewer EB is a net change of about -$20 but more MS (+17) makes that a wash. 16 fewer AI, at today's market rates (around $7), means $112 lower value there. EM was increased by 5 yielding another $20-$25 in value, PS dropped by 12 - so decline in about $36 there. So the net math works out to $125 or so in lower secondary market value for an 8K order based on today's values. This changes over time (I can recall AI being $1 years ago rather than $8 and Aragonite at $25 rather than $10.)

The challenge in changing these amounts is I'm sure Druegar is doing the calculation based on the actual tokens printed distribution and what would really appear in 10 packs. It makes sense for the $8K order to reflect what people would get if they did it in $250 orders, otherwise, it discourages anyone from doing $250 orders rather than the auctions.

If the amounts can be adjusted, adjusting the AI would resolve most of the issue.

Fred

2023 had 2 additional Common potions. That's:
2 points of AI
14 points per set of 40 packs
42 points per 1k order
336 points per 8k order
13.44 expected AI per 8k.

As I understand it, these numbers are based on the actual 2024 token pool -- so comparing it to the 2023 numbers isn't relevant unless you are arguing that a different method is used to determine the condensed trade good values.

Now, if the math is wrong, that's a different issue. I think there are two ways to think of an $8k super-condensed:

(1) It is 8x $1k condensed, plus the pre-transmuted uncommons and rares
(2) It is simply $8k worth of commons, uncommons, and rares, pre-transmuted

Option (1) requires rounding twice (once at the $1k level and again at the $8k level), where option (2) only rounds once, and therefore gives you different results.

You don't need to round twice if you don't round at the condensed step. Just multiply the non-rounded numbers by 8

Marc D wrote: You don't need to round twice if you don't round at the condensed step. Just multiply the non-rounded numbers by 8

Agreed, but whether it makes more sense to do it that way is debatable.

In other words, if I buy $8k and go normal condensed, and then I transmute everything else, then you would need to double-round the numbers to get the same thing.

If you only round the numbers at the end, then what I get from an $8k super-condensed is NOT the same as I would get with going standard condensed. But it IS what you get if you bought $8k of 10-packs and then transmuted everything.