TOPIC: 2020 Transmute Recipes, From the QTR

Endgame wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Thanks for dropping the EM.

I join the chorus of people who were fine with increased DS, DP, MH, MS, PS (or maybe a subset of those). Maybe split the difference between this version and the prior version on them?

It's really sad to see auctions running and trade tokens not cracking $1.50 or whatever - I think things are more healthy when trade tokens are in the 2.50 - 5 range.

One way to raise the prices could be to run fewer auctions... I think pyp is driving the auction sales, and trade goods are just along for the ride

You're right that that would change the prices, but that won't happen.

You're right that a lot of the money going into TD is to get PyPs, not trade goods though. But since the demand is around the PyPs, that many PyPs are getting bought - auctions or no. That will introduce a corresponding amount of trade goods.

Harlax wrote:

Endgame wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Flik wrote:

Endgame wrote: Oof. I think my group is out of the race for relics if this is going to be the prices.

The change on the Necklace of the spirit drake:

+1 Argonite
-10 Plank
-10 Steel
+2 Bismuth
-8 Munitions
+1 Fleece

Previous Auction price: 364.76 + UR
New Auction Price: 389.14 + 1 fleece ($70?) + UR

Not sure why prices got more expensive after the update. Maybe people not posting on the forums thought relics were too cheap or something.

If the fleece wasn’t tacked on I think it would be okay. 10 steel is worth an aragonite, maybe more than one. 18 other goods can be worth the 2x EB. Not sure why a $60+ fleece was added. Didn’t take away and cost for it...

Prices won't get more expensive if the cost of the trade goods keep falling. IMO the new recipes are fine, except I think Plank still needs to go up, and Stone/Silk. I also like the 2 Golden Fleece, helps reward those who play more then just buy Tokens.

How many runs does it take to get a fleece?

More than it used to. In recent years the percentage of monster bits drawn was around 20%. This year it’s more like 10%

With the current percentage, 5 runs on average. Assuming COA and two nuggets.

Exactly - with around 1500 in TEs, its 5 runs to get a fleece. In response to what i was quoting, I wouldn't say that fleece so much rewards those that play more, but that it acts as an entry level barrier where you have to buy a significant amount of TE for it to allow you to naturally generate them. Otherwise, you're stuck buying from 3rd parties.

I would prefer the 2020 relics not become less accessible - i can handle 10 extra silk / plank / stone, but extra fleece, argonite, etc is tougher to come by.

You're right that a lot of the money going into TD is to get PyPs, not trade goods though. But since the demand is around the PyPs, that many PyPs are getting bought - auctions or no. That will introduce a corresponding amount of trade goods.

That is more or less my point. Since auctions are being driven by PyPs and trade goods are a non optional part of that, the price is being driven down. This in turn makes Relics more accessible to make, as long as we don't see massive jumps in trade good requirements. I would generally say that is a good thing, as it's likely getting more relics in more people's hands.

As an aside, with the increasing number of goods being required nearing 100, is it time to print 5x and 25x trade good tokens? Darkwood Plank, Darkwood Bundle, Darkwood Cord?

Harlax wrote:

Rob F wrote: I think all of the increases in trade good Tokens are fine. EM might be a tad high though but let's face it there's probably still a boat load of goods out there in the market. Even with the increases I don't see prices on the secondary market changing much for any if the Goods.

When a 2k order isn’t enough to ensure the ability to make a Relic, that’s a problem.

Second. Maybe 3k with inflation at some point, my first relic was two 1k orders to make over two years and I had to trade some to make it happen.

Endgame wrote: [
As an aside, with the increasing number of goods being required nearing 100, is it time to print 5x and 25x trade good tokens? Darkwood Plank, Darkwood Bundle, Darkwood Cord?

I quite like this idea.

Harlax wrote:

Endgame wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Flik wrote:

Endgame wrote: Oof. I think my group is out of the race for relics if this is going to be the prices.

The change on the Necklace of the spirit drake:

+1 Argonite
-10 Plank
-10 Steel
+2 Bismuth
-8 Munitions
+1 Fleece

Previous Auction price: 364.76 + UR
New Auction Price: 389.14 + 1 fleece ($70?) + UR

Not sure why prices got more expensive after the update. Maybe people not posting on the forums thought relics were too cheap or something.

If the fleece wasn’t tacked on I think it would be okay. 10 steel is worth an aragonite, maybe more than one. 18 other goods can be worth the 2x EB. Not sure why a $60+ fleece was added. Didn’t take away and cost for it...

Prices won't get more expensive if the cost of the trade goods keep falling. IMO the new recipes are fine, except I think Plank still needs to go up, and Stone/Silk. I also like the 2 Golden Fleece, helps reward those who play more then just buy Tokens.

How many runs does it take to get a fleece?

More than it used to. In recent years the percentage of monster bits drawn was around 20%. This year it’s more like 10%

With the current percentage, 5 runs on average. Assuming COA and two nuggets.

John, you also have to assume perfect distribution. It’s possible to do 5 runs and get zero monster bits.

Re 5 runs to get a fleece, I’ve gotten 20 bits in one 50 bag, 21 I think it was; it was not this year though. Outliers work both ways though.

Looking back at the treasure pull google document, monster bits and relic fragments (which can be used for monster bits) are running around 13% of the reported pulls for 2019.

jedibcg wrote:

Druegar wrote: new recipes within:
QTR 2020.05 Beta

Seriously was this just to fuck with us?
Why drop the numbers on Planks, Silk and Stones? I don't think anyone mentioned there was said anything about the numbers on them. If someone did let me apologize now. And adding golden fleeces back when there was/is about half the number of monster bits in the boxes?

Average difference is
1.25 more Aragonite
10 less planks
6.25 less steel
1.5 more bismuth
11.5 less munitions
1 more fleece
2.5 less silk
3 less stones

If you make all four relics this version is
5 more argonite
40 less planks
25 less steel
6 more bismuth
46 less munitions
4 more fleece
10 less silk
12 less stones

Colorful commentary aside, Jedi has a point, less silk, plank and stone and in the quantities might be a bit rough. The more fleece with the lower drop rate is also questionable. It does come down to who the tokens are for, and what factors are being considered. If relics are for token chasers these might be fine. If relics are for the middle player then how many runs, how many te’s, and how many 1k packs should be considered to create a relic?

2 argonite is not unreasonable.
1 fleece, last year was not unreasonable, we don’t have a half fleece though, so 1 isn’t unreasonable.
5 EM could honestly be reasonable, just like AI and AP, it is a limited resource but one that is clearly undervalued in recipes.
Steel seems high
Bismuth seems high.

Old holy great sword should be usable in some phase of the holy avenger

Oh, I have no spreadsheets to backup my claims, I admit it is mostly gut.

macXdmg wrote: Re 5 runs to get a fleece, I’ve gotten 20 bits in one 50 bag, 21 I think it was; it was not this year though. Outliers work both ways though.

That’s precisely my point. So you essentially got 42% and if MB are running at 10-13% possibly 2-3 other people Have to get zero MB for the overall percentages to remain true.
So you were lucky by definition someone else will be unlucky. If those unlucky players are hoping to get enough trade and MB to create a relic they will be sadly disappointed.

Bob Chasan wrote:

macXdmg wrote: Re 5 runs to get a fleece, I’ve gotten 20 bits in one 50 bag, 21 I think it was; it was not this year though. Outliers work both ways though.

That’s precisely my point. So you essentially got 42% and if MB are running at 10-13% possibly 2-3 other people Have to get zero MB for the overall percentages to remain true.
So you were lucky by definition someone else will be unlucky. If those unlucky players are hoping to get enough trade and MB to create a relic they will be sadly disappointed.

Which is why I said “on average”.

I dont like any of the proposed recipe iterations, for various reasons already mentioned, plus more.

I think the recipes can/should have much bigger differences, not just slight tweaks to the numbers. Rather than each relic having plank, silk, and stone at some variation of 10, 15, and 20; make them wildly different but total up to the same. One relic could be 40 silk, but only 5 stone and plank; another is 50 plank; another is 30... you get the idea.
And apply that principle to other trade goods as well. Encourage trading to get what you need rather than buying the items you are short on. And those of us wanting one of every relic will need the full balance from a large order.

As to specific goods.
Munitions at 10+ was insane. It could go up to 5ish, but i do like the idea of only needing 2 or 3, which could bottom out the price on ammo and convince players to USE ammo in the dungeon.
MH and DS, please dont raise these to the high level of the silk, plank, and stone. They only come from commons, and are thus the ONLY trade goods you will never get from treasure draws.

Plank, stone, and silk; needing more is fine. Maybe do small increases on these each year until things find a balance?

Fleece...we need a better solution. I think requiring 1 fleece for every relic is too much, but without it the market gets flooded. There needs to be another sink for fleece/monster bits that isnt the relics. 2019 seemed to hit the mark just right. I know we all paniced at first, but i think the final numbers worked out...but a big part of that was because we had spare fleece from previous years. If supply and requirements stay at 2019 levels, im screwed.

Updated recipes can be found at the end of the QTR 2020.06 Beta .
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