TOPIC: 2020 Transmute Recipes, From the QTR

edwin wrote:

Michael Ernst wrote:

edwin wrote:

Michael Ernst wrote:

Harlax wrote:

Rob F wrote: I think all of the increases in trade good Tokens are fine. EM might be a tad high though but let's face it there's probably still a boat load of goods out there in the market. Even with the increases I don't see prices on the secondary market changing much for any if the Goods.

When a 2k order isn’t enough to ensure the ability to make a Relic, that’s a problem.

As a relatively new transmuter, I would like to express some concern about what this does as far as barrier to entry. If you think about these crafting costs in terms of $1K condensed packs, I think 2019 relics are roughly one such pack plus a golden fleece (Based on Trade Good Yields Spreadsheet) . In 2020, relics are roughly two such packs if you ignore enchanter's munition and five to ten such packs if you include it, though no longer requiring a golden fleece.

As a second, purely personal aside. Is there a recommended path for getting into transmuting? This change in recipes seems to represent a dramatic shift from last year and so makes it less clear the most natural way for my adventuring party to transmute relics.

Two primary routes are procuring tokens via auctions from folks parting out 8K orders or purchasing from TD directly and doing the transmute with the other procuring relics already transmuted that you want.

Relics typically are in the $350ish range if you buy them already transmuted.. So you definitely don't need to spend $1K or $2K to make.

If you want Ultra Rares and other tokens then it might be a better deal to spend more money with TD to get the goods to transmute for a relic along with the other tokens you want. Or it might be better to selectively purchase from an auction.

It is just the shift that throws me off. We have built some of the 2019 relics, and did so by buying directly from TD and an accumulation of a few years of packs. For these recipes that won't be realistically possible because the distribution of materials do not match the distribution of materials in our intake much at all.

I don't think this is necessarily bad. I can see the goal of relic recipes to be focused on the secondary market and longer term players.

Just pointing out options on intake.

I appreciate it. It helps us figure out what do to for 2020.

So I entered all relics into a spreadsheet with their needed components. I will link to at the end if anyone wants to look it over and see if I am any mistakes (likely did). I didn't include special formula relics (Bead of Lucky Traveler, Charm of Heroism, Draco-Lich Claw), basically if it required tokens that could not be obtained from standard packs, or more than 1 UR.


On average relics from 2012-2019 required
2.6 Tokens besides trade goods and the UR.
ink 3.3
parchment 6.3
Aragonite 1.6
planks 9.6
steel 8.5
bismuth 1.1
munitions 1.4
fleece 0.1 (last years' being the exception)
3.6
silk 7.4
oil 1.1
stone 6.6
gold 3952

So maybe those aren't fair numbers to compare as recipes have had drastic changes over the years. Let's instead look at 2018-2019.
1.2 Tokens besides trade goods and the UR.
ink 5.8
parchment 6.2
Aragonite 1
planks 12.4
steel 6.4
bismuth 1
munitions 1
fleece 0.2 (last years' being the exception)
hide 3.6
silk 3.6
oil 1
stone 11.4
gold 5000

2020 are
0 Tokens besides trade goods and the UR.
ink 11.25 (almost double)
parchment 10 (almost double)
Aragonite 1 (slightly lower)
planks 21.21 (more than double)
steel 17.5 (almost triple)
bismuth 1 (slightly lower)
munitions 12.5 (more than triple)
fleece 0 (lower obviously)
hide 12.5 (almost triple)
silk 20 (double)
oil 1 (slightly lower)
stone 14.25 (more than double)
gold 5000 (even)

I understand the gult of planks, silk and stones. I don't understand the tripling of steel, munition and hide. Maybe a double on them seems more appropriate in my opinion.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WyCJ1oGUyTVz-inZWZQJt7n1sSLUlUdTdhNoRU3JKDM/edit?usp=sharing

jedibcg wrote: munitions 12.5 (more than triple)

I think your wording here is quite generous - more than triple could imply a change from 1 to 3.4, where this is in fact an order of magnitude higher than 2019.

Cliff wrote:

jedibcg wrote: munitions 12.5 (more than triple)

I think your wording here is quite generous - more than triple could imply a change from 1 to 3.4, where this is in fact an order of magnitude higher than 2019.

You are correct I was looking at the wrong column when I said that.

Endgame wrote:

Rob F wrote: Where are you getting your data on trade good prices from years past? I think the cost of trade goods on the secondary market has went DOWN over the last 5 years. Oil used to go for $20. GP $20. I remember paying $5 for Steel and more for Silk/Stone. Etc. If the prices are coming down, it's because there's more supply.

Per my post, I calculated cost for all items on the rolling average of the last 3 auctions.

Looking at conversation history with the Bard in my party, I spent $264.16 on trade goods for the Lute of Free Fury (current auction price $299.62). I also built a Blessed Redoubt Helm for $253.21 in trade goods (currently $271.66) so last year the auction prices for trade goods appears to be lower than this year.

I have no data on prices before August 2018, as that is when I started actually looking at transmutes and trade goods.

In years past the cost of trade goods on the secondary market were much higher then they are today. I remember when you couldn't get any of the Goods for less then 4 bucks, even planks. Silk used to be much higher a few years ago, around 3 to 4 dollars. The prices on ALL the Goods have been coming down over the last 3-5 years. So keep that in mind. Prices on Goods are at an all time low. Which means there are a ton out there. So I have no problem with the requirements being bumped up, by a lot. Even at the proposed requirements I doubt you'll see any spikes in prices.

Rob F wrote:

Endgame wrote:

Rob F wrote: Where are you getting your data on trade good prices from years past? I think the cost of trade goods on the secondary market has went DOWN over the last 5 years. Oil used to go for $20. GP $20. I remember paying $5 for Steel and more for Silk/Stone. Etc. If the prices are coming down, it's because there's more supply.

Per my post, I calculated cost for all items on the rolling average of the last 3 auctions.

Looking at conversation history with the Bard in my party, I spent $264.16 on trade goods for the Lute of Free Fury (current auction price $299.62). I also built a Blessed Redoubt Helm for $253.21 in trade goods (currently $271.66) so last year the auction prices for trade goods appears to be lower than this year.

I have no data on prices before August 2018, as that is when I started actually looking at transmutes and trade goods.

In years past the cost of trade goods on the secondary market were much higher then they are today. I remember when you couldn't get any of the Goods for less then 4 bucks, even planks. Silk used to be much higher a few years ago, around 3 to 4 dollars. The prices on ALL the Goods have been coming down over the last 3-5 years. So keep that in mind. Prices on Goods are at an all time low. Which means there are a ton out there. So I have no problem with the requirements being bumped up, by a lot. Even at the proposed requirements I doubt you'll see any spikes in prices.

Which presumes that the design philosophy should be to support the secondary market versus people who buy directly from TD.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Rob F wrote: I think all of the increases in trade good Tokens are fine. EM might be a tad high though but let's face it there's probably still a boat load of goods out there in the market. Even with the increases I don't see prices on the secondary market changing much for any if the Goods.

How many EM do you have?

Could you make even 2 relics and 1 legendary without buying some?

Who will be selling?

I have 147.

Rob F wrote:
I have 147.

If you are willing to share how does that compare to your Dwarven Steel?


I didn't want to double post so this second part is not related to my question Rob F.
I think an increase in Munitions is order without doubt. They seem to under represented in relic recipes. However attempting to gooble all of them up in one swoops seems terrible for the economy to me. A stable economy is much preferable to one that has drastic changes. Getting enough munitions from a 1k order for 2 relics going to needing 4k to make one seems too drastic to me. I understand that they are out there on the secondary market but it is still going to cost someone more to acquire them. If you order 2k a year you are still likely going to order 2k and then go and spend more on tokens someone else has because they are not in your 2k order on the magnitude that you need.

I don't know all this just makes me wonder if I want to buy any tokens from Jeff and if I just want to deal exclusively with the secondary market, because it seems like this decision is more based on them than token buyers that buy for just for themselves.

Possibly a switch back to requiring an additional Golden Fleece and reducing the number of EMs.

Trade goods have fluxed over the years. You can’t compare 2013 to today. In 2013 MS was 15-20$ each. The only way you can run coat of X relic or legendary is if you have the costs for
Those years.

edwin wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Rob F wrote: I think all of the increases in trade good Tokens are fine. EM might be a tad high though but let's face it there's probably still a boat load of goods out there in the market. Even with the increases I don't see prices on the secondary market changing much for any if the Goods.

How many EM do you have?

Could you make even 2 relics and 1 legendary without buying some?

Who will be selling?

There is a current 8K auction that just started a day or two ago.

truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=584&id=250469

TD forum stores currently have them, example

truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=583&id=173718

Etc.

I would suggest that any prices established before a ~100x increase in demand are unreliable guides.

I won’t be selling any EM until these recipes are settled, and I won’t be charging anything less than $10 for them if these recipes hold up.

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: Trade goods have fluxed over the years. You can’t compare 2013 to today. In 2013 MS was 15-20$ each. The only way you can run coat of X relic or legendary is if you have the costs for
Those years.

Except that only matters to someone buying them on the secondary market. If you are ordering the same amount then it only fluctuates as much as the tokens that make up the order and the recipes themselves have on your own supply and demand.