TOPIC: 2020 Transmute Recipes, From the QTR

Endgame wrote:

Rob F wrote: I think all of the increases in trade good Tokens are fine. EM might be a tad high though but let's face it there's probably still a boat load of goods out there in the market. Even with the increases I don't see prices on the secondary market changing much for any if the Goods.

I disagree entirely. There can't be enough trade goods out there to absorb this kind of increase. The cost has gone up dramatically over the last couple of years as well, even using auction prices.

For the following items, I'm using weighted average prices from the last 3 auctions.

2017 Redoubt Shield
55 Trade goods. Price of trade goods 238.72

2018 +3 Throwing Hammer of Smiting
61 Trade goods (10% increase). Price of trade goods - 278.06

2019 Lute of Free Fury
65 Trade goods (18% increase from 2017). Price of Trade goods 299.62

Necklace of the Drake
119 trade goods (214% increase from 2017!). Price of Trade goods 364.76

Year on year it looks like the number of trade goods need was increasing around 10%, which was fine. Now we suddenly get a huge jump - almost double in quantity in from 2019, and 4x to 10x+ increases on some trade goods that seem to still generally be in demand. Most recipes didn't need Munitions, now they need 10. Dwarven steal goes from the 5(ish) range to 20.

I get there is a desire to create a sink for Stone / Plank ./ Silk, but the new recipes sometimes don't even increase the count at all (10x stones for Necklace of the Drake vs 12 needed for the +3 throwing hammer), and when it does increase, it only doubles.

I predict that these recipes will cause bottlenecks on some or all of: Enchanter's Munitions, Dwarven Steel, Minotaur Hide, and possibly Parchment. If the recipes are bottlenecked anywhere, fewer will be made and there will be no sink for Stone / Plank / Silk, so those prices will fall even further.

Where are you getting your data on trade good prices from years past? I think the cost of trade goods on the secondary market has went DOWN over the last 5 years. Oil used to go for $20. GP $20. I remember paying $5 for Steel and more for Silk/Stone. Etc. If the prices are coming down, it's because there's more supply.

Flik wrote: Completely agree that the jump in goods needed this year is bordering on extreme. I agree with everyone when PS/DP/MS need to be soaked but why not just raise their requirement (even if by a ton) and lower the others? Keep the relative price of the craftable the same by adding more lower level ones?

I agree with this, and could provide some suggestions, such as reusing recipie like the lute of free fury, remove the golden fleece, and add 10 plank / stone / silk.

However, if the goal is to really have a sink for trade goods, its probably better to have a 4* transmute that is something like:
IS Berl Prism + 5 Plank + 5 stone + 5 silk = Ioun Stone Black Hole - +1 all saves, +3HP. No bits, no gold, just a rare and a place to dump trade goods. I would make one of these for every member of my party for sure.

Flik wrote: I am not looking forward to trade good cost if the recipes aren't reigned back in. MS/DP/PS will be the only affordable goods. EM will skyrocket due to what others have said. I've been playing seriously for two years now, spent a couple thousand from the store proper, and have only been able to transmute like 2x EM.

I could have transmuted a EM this year, but I'm pretty sure my Bard used a +1 keen bolt each time he fired his crossbow on E2 and E3... That could end up being some really expensive unnecessary damage buffs.

Rob F wrote: I think all of the increases in trade good Tokens are fine. EM might be a tad high though but let's face it there's probably still a boat load of goods out there in the market. Even with the increases I don't see prices on the secondary market changing much for any if the Goods.

EM go for $2 or less and are difficult to move/not highly desired on auctions. Had to spend a lot of time and effort to get takers over the last year+.

Rob F wrote: Where are you getting your data on trade good prices from years past? I think the cost of trade goods on the secondary market has went DOWN over the last 5 years. Oil used to go for $20. GP $20. I remember paying $5 for Steel and more for Silk/Stone. Etc. If the prices are coming down, it's because there's more supply.

Per my post, I calculated cost for all items on the rolling average of the last 3 auctions.

Looking at conversation history with the Bard in my party, I spent $264.16 on trade goods for the Lute of Free Fury (current auction price $299.62). I also built a Blessed Redoubt Helm for $253.21 in trade goods (currently $271.66) so last year the auction prices for trade goods appears to be lower than this year.

I have no data on prices before August 2018, as that is when I started actually looking at transmutes and trade goods.

Harlax wrote:

Rob F wrote: I think all of the increases in trade good Tokens are fine. EM might be a tad high though but let's face it there's probably still a boat load of goods out there in the market. Even with the increases I don't see prices on the secondary market changing much for any if the Goods.

When a 2k order isn’t enough to ensure the ability to make a Relic, that’s a problem.

As a relatively new transmuter, I would like to express some concern about what this does as far as barrier to entry. If you think about these crafting costs in terms of $1K condensed packs, I think 2019 relics are roughly one such pack plus a golden fleece (Based on Trade Good Yields Spreadsheet) . In 2020, relics are roughly two such packs if you ignore enchanter's munition and five to ten such packs if you include it, though no longer requiring a golden fleece.

As a second, purely personal aside. Is there a recommended path for getting into transmuting? This change in recipes seems to represent a dramatic shift from last year and so makes it less clear the most natural way for my adventuring party to transmute relics.

Michael Ernst wrote:

Harlax wrote:

Rob F wrote: I think all of the increases in trade good Tokens are fine. EM might be a tad high though but let's face it there's probably still a boat load of goods out there in the market. Even with the increases I don't see prices on the secondary market changing much for any if the Goods.

When a 2k order isn’t enough to ensure the ability to make a Relic, that’s a problem.

As a relatively new transmuter, I would like to express some concern about what this does as far as barrier to entry. If you think about these crafting costs in terms of $1K condensed packs, I think 2019 relics are roughly one such pack plus a golden fleece (Based on Trade Good Yields Spreadsheet) . In 2020, relics are roughly two such packs if you ignore enchanter's munition and five to ten such packs if you include it, though no longer requiring a golden fleece.

As a second, purely personal aside. Is there a recommended path for getting into transmuting? This change in recipes seems to represent a dramatic shift from last year and so makes it less clear the most natural way for my adventuring party to transmute relics.

Two primary routes are procuring tokens via auctions from folks parting out 8K orders or purchasing from TD directly and doing the transmute with the other procuring relics already transmuted that you want.

Relics typically are in the $350ish range if you buy them already transmuted.. So you definitely don't need to spend $1K or $2K to make.

If you want Ultra Rares and other tokens then it might be a better deal to spend more money with TD to get the goods to transmute for a relic along with the other tokens you want. Or it might be better to selectively purchase from an auction.

Rob F wrote: I think all of the increases in trade good Tokens are fine. EM might be a tad high though but let's face it there's probably still a boat load of goods out there in the market. Even with the increases I don't see prices on the secondary market changing much for any if the Goods.

How many EM do you have?

Could you make even 2 relics and 1 legendary without buying some?

Who will be selling?

I remember some discussion about this last year with regards to recipes (I feel like I brought it up then too, but I don't remember 100% and don't want to take credit for someone else's idea), but one way to try and balance excesses of particular trade goods without trying to target any individual one specifically would be to add some sort of "misc" number of trade goods to recipes.

So, for example, instead of like:
20x DP
20x MS
15x EM

You could instead do something like:
15x DP
15x MS
10x EM
15x Additional trade goods of choice.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Rob F wrote: I think all of the increases in trade good Tokens are fine. EM might be a tad high though but let's face it there's probably still a boat load of goods out there in the market. Even with the increases I don't see prices on the secondary market changing much for any if the Goods.

How many EM do you have?

Could you make even 2 relics and 1 legendary without buying some?

Who will be selling?

There is a current 8K auction that just started a day or two ago.

truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=584&id=250469

TD forum stores currently have them, example

truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=583&id=173718

Etc.

edwin wrote:

Michael Ernst wrote:

Harlax wrote:

Rob F wrote: I think all of the increases in trade good Tokens are fine. EM might be a tad high though but let's face it there's probably still a boat load of goods out there in the market. Even with the increases I don't see prices on the secondary market changing much for any if the Goods.

When a 2k order isn’t enough to ensure the ability to make a Relic, that’s a problem.

As a relatively new transmuter, I would like to express some concern about what this does as far as barrier to entry. If you think about these crafting costs in terms of $1K condensed packs, I think 2019 relics are roughly one such pack plus a golden fleece (Based on Trade Good Yields Spreadsheet) . In 2020, relics are roughly two such packs if you ignore enchanter's munition and five to ten such packs if you include it, though no longer requiring a golden fleece.

As a second, purely personal aside. Is there a recommended path for getting into transmuting? This change in recipes seems to represent a dramatic shift from last year and so makes it less clear the most natural way for my adventuring party to transmute relics.

Two primary routes are procuring tokens via auctions from folks parting out 8K orders or purchasing from TD directly and doing the transmute with the other procuring relics already transmuted that you want.

Relics typically are in the $350ish range if you buy them already transmuted.. So you definitely don't need to spend $1K or $2K to make.

If you want Ultra Rares and other tokens then it might be a better deal to spend more money with TD to get the goods to transmute for a relic along with the other tokens you want. Or it might be better to selectively purchase from an auction.

It is just the shift that throws me off. We have built some of the 2019 relics, and did so by buying directly from TD and an accumulation of a few years of packs. For these recipes that won't be realistically possible because the distribution of materials do not match the distribution of materials in our intake much at all.

I don't think this is necessarily bad. I can see the goal of relic recipes to be focused on the secondary market and longer term players.

Michael Ernst wrote:

edwin wrote:

Michael Ernst wrote:

Harlax wrote:

Rob F wrote: I think all of the increases in trade good Tokens are fine. EM might be a tad high though but let's face it there's probably still a boat load of goods out there in the market. Even with the increases I don't see prices on the secondary market changing much for any if the Goods.

When a 2k order isn’t enough to ensure the ability to make a Relic, that’s a problem.

As a relatively new transmuter, I would like to express some concern about what this does as far as barrier to entry. If you think about these crafting costs in terms of $1K condensed packs, I think 2019 relics are roughly one such pack plus a golden fleece (Based on Trade Good Yields Spreadsheet) . In 2020, relics are roughly two such packs if you ignore enchanter's munition and five to ten such packs if you include it, though no longer requiring a golden fleece.

As a second, purely personal aside. Is there a recommended path for getting into transmuting? This change in recipes seems to represent a dramatic shift from last year and so makes it less clear the most natural way for my adventuring party to transmute relics.

Two primary routes are procuring tokens via auctions from folks parting out 8K orders or purchasing from TD directly and doing the transmute with the other procuring relics already transmuted that you want.

Relics typically are in the $350ish range if you buy them already transmuted.. So you definitely don't need to spend $1K or $2K to make.

If you want Ultra Rares and other tokens then it might be a better deal to spend more money with TD to get the goods to transmute for a relic along with the other tokens you want. Or it might be better to selectively purchase from an auction.

It is just the shift that throws me off. We have built some of the 2019 relics, and did so by buying directly from TD and an accumulation of a few years of packs. For these recipes that won't be realistically possible because the distribution of materials do not match the distribution of materials in our intake much at all.

I don't think this is necessarily bad. I can see the goal of relic recipes to be focused on the secondary market and longer term players.

Just pointing out options on intake.

I haven't read through the comments, but here is my initial thoughts.

The Gem of Last Hope recipe seems a bit weak, given that it duplicates a UR.

I'm surprised the Golden Fleece requirements are so much lower than last year. Even with the lower percentage of monster bits this year and increased Golden Fleece requirements the price is holding steady at around $60. Reducing the Fleece in recipes might result in another glut.

Can the +2 Holy Great Sword be an alternate ingredient for the +3 Holy Avenger?

The Aragonite, Oil, and Bismuth requirements for Legendaries seems too light, maybe double them? They should each be 2x at least.

Thanks,
Mike