Welcome, Guest
Username: Password: Remember me

TOPIC: Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins

Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins 6 months 2 weeks ago #49

Wade Schwendemann wrote:

Adam Guay wrote: The ones made ahead of time have always turned out good and with a nice mix.....the ones made later that I have pulled have been very full of uncommons and light on monster bits.


My end of PAX bags were awesome.


Same here I got a relic hammer :)

I will always take 50s if possible, just way easier. The treasure wand is a PITA for large quantities. I trust Druegar that the distribution is the same.
Classes Played: Barbarian (21 times), Monk (15), Rogue (10), Cleric (9), Fighter (9), Ranger (8), Dwarf Fighter (7), Paladin (5), Druid (5), Elf Wizard (2), Wizard (2).

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins 6 months 2 weeks ago #50

  • jedibcg
  • jedibcg's Avatar
  • Away
  • 8th Level
  • Supporter
  • What is personal text?
  • Posts: 7937

Druegar wrote:

Picc wrote: I too have noticed that the {predrawn} bags seem to be more evenly distributed then those generated during the con.

What is your sample size?

I realize some folks may think I'm biased, but I am not kidding when I say your odds of pulling the "good stuff" from a bag or the box are exactly same. How do I know this? Because they come the Exact. Same. Source! Pulling one or two "crappy" bags is not evidence that the bags have less of a chance of being "good". And conversely, pulling one or two "awesome" bags is not evidence that the bags have less of a chance of being "crappy". I totally get that it might look that way to the bag holder, but if you examine the outcomes of both over time, the odds are the same.

Honestly, I don't care if you draw from the box or get a bag. I'm merely trying to encourage rational thinking. I'm crazy for trying, I know, but I gotta try.

Thank you, I have been saying this for years.
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins 6 months 2 weeks ago #51

  • Picc
  • Picc's Avatar
  • Away
  • 8th Level
  • Supporter
  • Remember when we were explorers?
  • Posts: 5760

jedibcg wrote:

Druegar wrote:

Picc wrote: I too have noticed that the {predrawn} bags seem to be more evenly distributed then those generated during the con.

What is your sample size?

I realize some folks may think I'm biased, but I am not kidding when I say your odds of pulling the "good stuff" from a bag or the box are exactly same. How do I know this? Because they come the Exact. Same. Source! Pulling one or two "crappy" bags is not evidence that the bags have less of a chance of being "good". And conversely, pulling one or two "awesome" bags is not evidence that the bags have less of a chance of being "crappy". I totally get that it might look that way to the bag holder, but if you examine the outcomes of both over time, the odds are the same.

Honestly, I don't care if you draw from the box or get a bag. I'm merely trying to encourage rational thinking. I'm crazy for trying, I know, but I gotta try.

Thank you, I have been saying this for years.


100% Granted I haven't seen enough bags to draw a representory sample.

That said, I would speculate that the bags made in carbondale probably come out of a large subset of treasure mix. Those made at the con would be necessity come from mix that is at the lease already devided into buckets, and at worst might have already been drawn from in treasure generators just because its what's on hand.

If it's the prior, that initial subdivision might already affect the variance. Though again granted not in a meaningful or predictable way.

If it's the latter, the odds would definitely be different based on what had or hadn't already come out of the generators. Again not predictable.

Over all I agree your odds are the same wherever you draw from (relative the entire treasure pool). However it still feels like you could have hot or cold bags/buckets relative a sub set.

IMO if your really trying to maximize your odds and you head about how hot sub source of treasure was it would be best to avoid it as (assuming even distribution) that source has already paid out. It's kind of like basic +- face card counting in blackjack, what's come out of a source thus far tells you something about what's likely to be left in it.
Semper Gumby, Always flexible.

Sartre sits in in a coffee shop and asks for a coffee without cream. The barista apologizes “Sorry, we don't have any cream. Can I offer you a coffee without milk instead?”

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Last edit: by Picc.

Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins 6 months 2 weeks ago #52

i prefer the bags...because I dont open them right away. then when I am missing TD I open a bag. i try to spread them out between cons to help with the no con blues

I have seen them all done. I can tell you. everything is random....except the one rogue box my wife drew out of on the GT run. That had just one token in it for room 7.
delpchad.blogspot.com/

First solo Nightmare survivor-2014 Viper pit

Allergic to Lori

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins 6 months 2 weeks ago #53

  • jedibcg
  • jedibcg's Avatar
  • Away
  • 8th Level
  • Supporter
  • What is personal text?
  • Posts: 7937

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: i prefer the bags...because I dont open them right away. then when I am missing TD I open a bag. i try to spread them out between cons to help with the no con blues

I have seen them all done. I can tell you. everything is random....except the one rogue box my wife drew out of on the GT run. That had just one token in it for room 7.


I call shenanigans. She wasn't your wife when she drew that token, correct?
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins 6 months 2 weeks ago #54

jedibcg wrote:

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: i prefer the bags...because I dont open them right away. then when I am missing TD I open a bag. i try to spread them out between cons to help with the no con blues

I have seen them all done. I can tell you. everything is random....except the one rogue box my wife drew out of on the GT run. That had just one token in it for room 7.


I call shenanigans. She wasn't your wife when she drew that token, correct?

if I dont mention her as wife in any context now, that is bad news for me
delpchad.blogspot.com/

First solo Nightmare survivor-2014 Viper pit

Allergic to Lori

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins 6 months 2 weeks ago #55

  • jedibcg
  • jedibcg's Avatar
  • Away
  • 8th Level
  • Supporter
  • What is personal text?
  • Posts: 7937

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: if I dont mention her as wife in any context now, that is bad news for me


lol fair enough.

This year will be interesting with the 20 bags. I am not certain if we will crack them right away or I will just wait till I get them home and do so. Probably need to crack them right away to get the Monster Bits to make the Lucky Traveler Beads. There I attempted to bring us back.
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Last edit: by jedibcg.

Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins 6 months 2 weeks ago #56

I will always pull from the treasure boxes with the wand. Just seems more old school fun to me. And my kids will always pull from the treasure boxes. They love it. And once or twice I think they got 2 tokens stuck on the wand and the guy monitoring the boxes let them have both tokens. They thought that was awesome, two-for-the-price-of-one
"Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." - Albert Einstein

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins 6 months 2 weeks ago #57

I have found the box and the bags to be about the same.
I have had a smaller sample size of bags compared to normal pulls.
I’m looking forward to the 20 bags to, just for speed and convenience in the epilogue room

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Last edit: by Wayne Rhodes.

Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins 6 months 2 weeks ago #58

Will there still be 50 count bags available?
Fall down......Go boom!

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins 6 months 2 weeks ago #59

  • Druegar
  • Druegar's Avatar Topic Author
  • Away
  • 9th Level
  • Supporter
  • Enjoy Your Burrito
  • Posts: 8729
The plan is for both 20 and 50 bags to be available.
Have you looked it up in the TDb ?
Please post TDb corrections/suggestions in this thread .
If I write something in teal, it should not be taken seriously.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins 6 months 2 weeks ago #60

"Picc” wrote: ...that initial subdivision might already affect the variance.


It does. If there’s only one legendary, one subset has it and the other doesn’t. If you want the Hammer, draw from the subset that has it. But...

Though again granted not in a meaningful or predictable way.


...there’s no way of knowing where it is. The people who might know aren’t talking.

If it's the latter, the odds would definitely be different based on what had or hadn't already come out of the generators. Again not predictable.


You might know which subset DID have it, if you’re keeping track of all the draws. Retroactive predictions are 100% accurate. :)

(Shelly found an Aren’s in a 50-bag at Origins.)
barkley.neo.rr.com -->see my trade thread HERE , my eBay store HERE or my web store HERE
"Ceci n'est pas une pipe" - Magritte

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Time to create page: 0.197 seconds