TOPIC: "Ghosting" a run for Treasure - Changed at GenCon?

jedibcg wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:
I don't think there is any evidence that people are buying out runs to ghost, and I think the main objection to ghosting comes from the fear of denying other players limited slots.

And I'll tell you, you're wrong. I know there are people who are planning on buying out runs with the intent of ghosting for the loot, not playing. I don't get around much, and I know of at least three. And every new TE only makes it more attractive.

And I'll confess, I've decided to do it, too. I've given up fighting this battle. Everyone has told me for years I was being paranoid, so I can't help chuckling a little as I read this thread.

But whatever the rules are for ghosts, they should be the same as for minions. If you buy someone's ticket and they give you all their loot, then they are just a ghost with a body and should be treated the same way as a ghost without one.

But how do you tell a mercenaries from folks like Harlax's son and friends? Well, that's the tricky part, isn't it?

Brad I agree with now in in the past the more TE tokens could lead to a bad state.

I do however question though that there are currently 3 farmers. The biggest token sellers chad, kirk, matthew, ed and mike seem to be buying lots of tokens from TD to sell or just doing lots of runs. Of course I don't know what anyone else is doing but I find it suspect that anyone is buying tickets solely for loot. Again you may know but it seems suspect to me.

There's never been any token farming on our runs. In all our years of True Dungeon going all the way back to 2003, we've only had one or two "ghost" slots total, and those were because people cancelled at the last minute and we weren't able to replace them.

jedibcg wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:
I don't think there is any evidence that people are buying out runs to ghost, and I think the main objection to ghosting comes from the fear of denying other players limited slots.

And I'll tell you, you're wrong. I know there are people who are planning on buying out runs with the intent of ghosting for the loot, not playing. I don't get around much, and I know of at least three. And every new TE only makes it more attractive.

And I'll confess, I've decided to do it, too. I've given up fighting this battle. Everyone has told me for years I was being paranoid, so I can't help chuckling a little as I read this thread.

But whatever the rules are for ghosts, they should be the same as for minions. If you buy someone's ticket and they give you all their loot, then they are just a ghost with a body and should be treated the same way as a ghost without one.

But how do you tell a mercenaries from folks like Harlax's son and friends? Well, that's the tricky part, isn't it?

Brad I agree with now in in the past the more TE tokens could lead to a bad state.

I do however question though that there are currently 3 farmers. The biggest token sellers chad, kirk, matthew, ed and mike seem to be buying lots of tokens from TD to sell or just doing lots of runs. Of course I don't know what anyone else is doing but I find it suspect that anyone is buying tickets solely for loot. Again you may know but it seems suspect to me.

The only times I am aware of where people have bought out a run without intending to go on it is when a run is about to expire and is un-sold. Here either Jeff/Lori get money or they get nothing. I think that is a reasonable and beneficial arrangement.

The only time I have bought out an entire run I have plans on filling it or doing a thematic run (Nightmare Solo).

I think until we see numerous unscheduled GM breaks (because people have bought the run and are not on it) we are trying to develop a solution to a predicted problem.

Ed

jedibcg wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:
I don't think there is any evidence that people are buying out runs to ghost, and I think the main objection to ghosting comes from the fear of denying other players limited slots.

And I'll tell you, you're wrong. I know there are people who are planning on buying out runs with the intent of ghosting for the loot, not playing. I don't get around much, and I know of at least three. And every new TE only makes it more attractive.

And I'll confess, I've decided to do it, too. I've given up fighting this battle. Everyone has told me for years I was being paranoid, so I can't help chuckling a little as I read this thread.

But whatever the rules are for ghosts, they should be the same as for minions. If you buy someone's ticket and they give you all their loot, then they are just a ghost with a body and should be treated the same way as a ghost without one.

But how do you tell a mercenaries from folks like Harlax's son and friends? Well, that's the tricky part, isn't it?

Brad I agree with now in in the past the more TE tokens could lead to a bad state.

I do however question though that there are currently 3 farmers. The biggest token sellers chad, kirk, matthew, ed and mike seem to be buying lots of tokens from TD to sell or just doing lots of runs. Of course I don't know what anyone else is doing but I find it suspect that anyone is buying tickets solely for loot. Again you may know but it seems suspect to me.

You would also have problems of:

1. Token buyer buys full slot of tickets
2. Offers tickets to newbies for half price if the token buyer gets all the tokens

This is good for the token buyer. Good for the newbies.
Probably neutral or even good for TD generally speaking.
For very bad for the token economy.

Not to mention, once half price is acceptable, you have the slippery slope of what the limit is (newbie pays 75%? 80%? 95%?) and at what point are newbies being exploited (and at what point are you providing a beneficial service to them).

Incognito wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:
I don't think there is any evidence that people are buying out runs to ghost, and I think the main objection to ghosting comes from the fear of denying other players limited slots.

And I'll tell you, you're wrong. I know there are people who are planning on buying out runs with the intent of ghosting for the loot, not playing. I don't get around much, and I know of at least three. And every new TE only makes it more attractive.

And I'll confess, I've decided to do it, too. I've given up fighting this battle. Everyone has told me for years I was being paranoid, so I can't help chuckling a little as I read this thread.

But whatever the rules are for ghosts, they should be the same as for minions. If you buy someone's ticket and they give you all their loot, then they are just a ghost with a body and should be treated the same way as a ghost without one.

But how do you tell a mercenaries from folks like Harlax's son and friends? Well, that's the tricky part, isn't it?

Brad I agree with now in in the past the more TE tokens could lead to a bad state.

I do however question though that there are currently 3 farmers. The biggest token sellers chad, kirk, matthew, ed and mike seem to be buying lots of tokens from TD to sell or just doing lots of runs. Of course I don't know what anyone else is doing but I find it suspect that anyone is buying tickets solely for loot. Again you may know but it seems suspect to me.

You would also have problems of:

1. Token buyer buys full slot of tickets
2. Offers tickets to newbies for half price if the token buyer gets all the tokens

This is good for the token buyer. Good for the newbies.
Probably neutral or even good for TD generally speaking.
For very bad for the token economy.

Not to mention, once half price is acceptable, you have the slippery slope of what the limit is (newbie pays 75%? 80%? 95%?) and at what point are newbies being exploited (and at what point are you providing a beneficial service to them).

In your scenario, is the token buyer going on the run with them? If so, I really don't see any problem with that arrangement, as long as both parties are OK with it. And maybe it creates some long-term TD fans from those newbies playing at a discount. I'm curious, how do you see that as very bad for the token economy?

Incognito wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:
I don't think there is any evidence that people are buying out runs to ghost, and I think the main objection to ghosting comes from the fear of denying other players limited slots.

And I'll tell you, you're wrong. I know there are people who are planning on buying out runs with the intent of ghosting for the loot, not playing. I don't get around much, and I know of at least three. And every new TE only makes it more attractive.

And I'll confess, I've decided to do it, too. I've given up fighting this battle. Everyone has told me for years I was being paranoid, so I can't help chuckling a little as I read this thread.

But whatever the rules are for ghosts, they should be the same as for minions. If you buy someone's ticket and they give you all their loot, then they are just a ghost with a body and should be treated the same way as a ghost without one.

But how do you tell a mercenaries from folks like Harlax's son and friends? Well, that's the tricky part, isn't it?

Brad I agree with now in in the past the more TE tokens could lead to a bad state.

I do however question though that there are currently 3 farmers. The biggest token sellers chad, kirk, matthew, ed and mike seem to be buying lots of tokens from TD to sell or just doing lots of runs. Of course I don't know what anyone else is doing but I find it suspect that anyone is buying tickets solely for loot. Again you may know but it seems suspect to me.

You would also have problems of:

1. Token buyer buys full slot of tickets
2. Offers tickets to newbies for half price if the token buyer gets all the tokens

This is good for the token buyer. Good for the newbies.
Probably neutral or even good for TD generally speaking.
For very bad for the token economy.

Not to mention, once half price is acceptable, you have the slippery slope of what the limit is (newbie pays 75%? 80%? 95%?) and at what point are newbies being exploited (and at what point are you providing a beneficial service to them).

For the record I have never done any runs solely to get treasure, but I have done some runs with fewer than 10 people and taken advantage of ghosting for the extra treasure. I don't get a significant source of my store inventory from dungeon runs either way.

On the other hand I did offer a newbie run this year for half price and kept 13 of their 16 treasure draws (alternatively I offered for them to pay full price and keep all 16 treasure draws which 3 people did). I did it to introduce new players, but obviously the treasure was nice too.

Even if somebody did this for the purpose of getting treasure, I think it is OK since newbies are getting dungeon runs. As long as the player is making the experience pleasant for them.

I don't know that it has a big effect on the token economy. If you assume an average of 5 draws per ticket sold, that's about 40,000 tokens. By my estimation, token sales each year amount to somewhere over 1/2 million tokens (assuming no condensed packs). So I'd say that treasure draws are no more than about 10% of the economy. Although with this year's treasure draws they were more valuable by far than the token purchases so I guess that is a bigger concern.

More treasure pulls means each token has less value, as there are more introduced into circulation.
Unless demand also goes up from these new players wanting to buy their own tokens.

Incognito wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:
I don't think there is any evidence that people are buying out runs to ghost, and I think the main objection to ghosting comes from the fear of denying other players limited slots.

And I'll tell you, you're wrong. I know there are people who are planning on buying out runs with the intent of ghosting for the loot, not playing. I don't get around much, and I know of at least three. And every new TE only makes it more attractive.

And I'll confess, I've decided to do it, too. I've given up fighting this battle. Everyone has told me for years I was being paranoid, so I can't help chuckling a little as I read this thread.

But whatever the rules are for ghosts, they should be the same as for minions. If you buy someone's ticket and they give you all their loot, then they are just a ghost with a body and should be treated the same way as a ghost without one.

But how do you tell a mercenaries from folks like Harlax's son and friends? Well, that's the tricky part, isn't it?

Brad I agree with now in in the past the more TE tokens could lead to a bad state.

I do however question though that there are currently 3 farmers. The biggest token sellers chad, kirk, matthew, ed and mike seem to be buying lots of tokens from TD to sell or just doing lots of runs. Of course I don't know what anyone else is doing but I find it suspect that anyone is buying tickets solely for loot. Again you may know but it seems suspect to me.

You would also have problems of:

1. Token buyer buys full slot of tickets
2. Offers tickets to newbies for half price if the token buyer gets all the tokens

This is good for the token buyer. Good for the newbies.
Probably neutral or even good for TD generally speaking.
For very bad for the token economy.

Not to mention, once half price is acceptable, you have the slippery slope of what the limit is (newbie pays 75%? 80%? 95%?) and at what point are newbies being exploited (and at what point are you providing a beneficial service to them).

I offer new people free tickets. Since I keep most of the tokens I pull I don't see how it would hurt the token economy, well except monster bits which I trade. I admit it mifht be lowering the value of moster bits because I do not need 40 of each and value them low.

jedibcg wrote: I offer new people free tickets. Since I keep most of the tokens I pull I don't see how it would hurt the token economy, well except monster bits which I trade. I admit it mifht be lowering the value of moster bits because I do need 40 of each and value them low.

Simple.

When treasure tokens go to the casual, newbie players, essentially they are "out of circulation." When treasure tokens get heavily consolidated by run organizers, that is a massive influx of Rares, monster trophies, even UR's/Relics.

I guess the analogy I am using is with commemorative coins and state quarters, where the U.S. government has made billions because of coins taken out of circulation.

Incognito wrote:

jedibcg wrote: I offer new people free tickets. Since I keep most of the tokens I pull I don't see how it would hurt the token economy, well except monster bits which I trade. I admit it mifht be lowering the value of moster bits because I do need 40 of each and value them low.

Simple.

When treasure tokens go to the casual, newbie players, essentially they are "out of circulation." When treasure tokens get heavily consolidated by run organizers, that is a massive influx of Rares, monster trophies, even UR's/Relics.

I guess the analogy I am using is with commemorative coins and state quarters, where the U.S. government has made billions because of coins taken out of circulation.

Only if those tokens are going to the secondary market. Mine are used as upgrades and trades to make transmutes to make updgrades. Check what I am selling and look at what I pulled. You won't see the 50k in gold, most of the relics or the lengendary. So they are out of circulation just the same.

I would say having mondter bits in circulation is good for the economy because they only way to get them is from the boxes. If casual players don't trade then then those that do want them cannot get their hands on them.

Brad Mortensen wrote: [
And I'll confess, I've decided to do it, too. I've given up fighting this battle. Everyone has told me for years I was being paranoid, so I can't help chuckling a little as I read this thread.

I wish you good luck! To other entrepreneurs who may be contemplating this, I'll mention that I ghosted 4 slots by accident this year (no shows).

My best estimate is that I lost around $9 on each slot, not counting the value of my time in managing the inventory and bringing it to market, and the risk that prices change substantially before I can liquidate those things (under a FIFO accounting the trade goods from those packs are way deep in my piles).

This also doesn't include any of my expenses in getting to the con, meals, the value of my time at the con, etc..

I know you can do math to show a profit on ghosting based on some reasonable assumptions.

I'd just caution before people get too far out on their skis spending $10,000 on loot tokens and $500 to buy out a run that it's no slam dunk that you'll make money - variance in the value of treasure pulls is substantial, even for people doing hundreds of pulls.

jedibcg wrote:

Incognito wrote:

jedibcg wrote: I offer new people free tickets. Since I keep most of the tokens I pull I don't see how it would hurt the token economy, well except monster bits which I trade. I admit it mifht be lowering the value of moster bits because I do need 40 of each and value them low.

Simple.

When treasure tokens go to the casual, newbie players, essentially they are "out of circulation." When treasure tokens get heavily consolidated by run organizers, that is a massive influx of Rares, monster trophies, even UR's/Relics.

I guess the analogy I am using is with commemorative coins and state quarters, where the U.S. government has made billions because of coins taken out of circulation.

Only if those tokens are going to the secondary market. Mine are used as upgrades and trades to make transmutes to make updgrades. Check what I am selling and look at what I pulled. You won't see the 50k in gold, most of the relics or the lengendary. So they are out of circulation just the same.

I would say having mondter bits in circulation is good for the economy because they only way to get them is from the boxes. If casual players don't trade then then those that do want them cannot get their hands on them.

And if you didn't have those tokens to make upgrades and to make transmutes, then you would probably need to buy more tokens (or do more runs) to get the tokens you needed.

Scenario 1:

You do a run.
Nine newbies pay their ticket price prices, get treasure tokens (that are largely out of circulation)
You need more tokens for transmutes, so you need to buy more tokens or do more runs (paying more money in the process)

Scenario 2:

You do a run, sponsoring the nine newbies who don't pay anything
You have the tokens you need for transmutes



Scenario 1 clearly leads to more revenue for TD.

So I still don't get my options for GHC. I bought out a slot and I have 6 of 10 confirmed for it so far. The problem is we want to play hardcore or nightmare and we don't want newbies on the run because they won't agree to the harder difficulty so I rather ghost the slots instead. I am prebuilding a few extra characters for my friends if they want to play the slot however I rather let the slot go to waste then have a newbie veto our hardcore run.