TOPIC: Endgame 2019 Transmuted Recipes

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Aothos wrote:

Xavon wrote: That's a lot of Fleece, especially considering its a Story transmute year and extra especially on the Kilt.

Apparently we only cater to the token hoarders these days; further alienating the newer players.

The falling price of a trade good is just part of the open market system.
It should not be Jeff's prerogative to secure the market price of any token.
At best the kilt should only require a single fleece.

I disagree:

True Adventues controls the supply of monster bits / fleece by deciding what the treasure mix is.

True Adventures controls the demand of fleece by deciding what recipes are.

If the price of bits/fleece goes to 0, the value of a treasure pull declines by:
old_price*odds_of_getting_bit

As treasure pulls get devalued:

A. Total effective cost to play the Dungeon increases
B. Demand for URTEs would be predicted to decline
C. Demand for PyPs and tokens would be predicted to decline

Under basic economic assumptions.


It is good business for TD to monitor the value of a treasure pull, and managing the value of monster bits is an effective way of doing it, as player behavior changes in token purchases don’t impact the supply of bits.

Then this process is still forgetting about the free market's basic ability to correct itself. Its simple really;

1. Price drops, players that couldn't outright buy them before can now purchase them more easily.
2. New player base has access to cheap trade goods, they buy them with the intent to use them.
3. Jeff creates a few recipes that are accessible to new players that now have cheap fleeces.
4. Fleeces filter out of circulation.

The problem isn't that high end transmutes need to require more fleeces. Its that fleeces need to be used in lower transmutes by new players. Then once the fleeces filter out after a year or two of low level transmutes containing fleeces, the price will go back up as long as TD chokes bits out a bit more on TPs.

i.e. Change the Belt of Ogre Mage Power from 10× Mystic Silk to 1× Golden Fleece.
Idk about everyone else, but I don't know any silk weaving ogres, but I can definitely see one using a sheep's pelt to hold its clothing together.

I think people that had complained about too many monster bits may be forgetting what happened to the prices on some monster bits the last time we did a story arc token.

And I suspect that if these recipes stay as they are that we'll see some monster bit prices adjust above what happened in 2015/2016.

The Falcon wrote: 6 months ago
People were complaining that
GF are everywhere, maybe now they
Will go up in value a bit.

This logic only encourages people who aren't hoarding to scream louder.

Do we really have to tell people who have 100+ pulls to "shut up" now? Not everyone was complaining about GF being accessible.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Aothos wrote:

Xavon wrote: That's a lot of Fleece, especially considering its a Story transmute year and extra especially on the Kilt.

Apparently we only cater to the token hoarders these days; further alienating the newer players.

The falling price of a trade good is just part of the open market system.
It should not be Jeff's prerogative to secure the market price of any token.
At best the kilt should only require a single fleece.

I disagree:

True Adventues controls the supply of monster bits / fleece by deciding what the treasure mix is.

True Adventures controls the demand of fleece by deciding what recipes are.

If the price of bits/fleece goes to 0, the value of a treasure pull declines by:
old_price*odds_of_getting_bit

As treasure pulls get devalued:

A. Total effective cost to play the Dungeon increases
B. Demand for URTEs would be predicted to decline
C. Demand for PyPs and tokens would be predicted to decline

Under basic economic assumptions.


It is good business for TD to monitor the value of a treasure pull, and managing the value of monster bits is an effective way of doing it, as player behavior changes in token purchases don’t impact the supply of bits.

If you're worried about the value of your treasure pull, sell your gold treasure chips. Don't complain about an increased supply of bits.

AFAIK, the value of the pulls themselves has never dropped. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Aothos wrote:

Xavon wrote: That's a lot of Fleece, especially considering its a Story transmute year and extra especially on the Kilt.

Apparently we only cater to the token hoarders these days; further alienating the newer players.

The falling price of a trade good is just part of the open market system.
It should not be Jeff's prerogative to secure the market price of any token.
At best the kilt should only require a single fleece.

I disagree:

True Adventues controls the supply of monster bits / fleece by deciding what the treasure mix is.

True Adventures controls the demand of fleece by deciding what recipes are.

If the price of bits/fleece goes to 0, the value of a treasure pull declines by:
old_price*odds_of_getting_bit

As treasure pulls get devalued:

A. Total effective cost to play the Dungeon increases
B. Demand for URTEs would be predicted to decline
C. Demand for PyPs and tokens would be predicted to decline

Under basic economic assumptions.


It is good business for TD to monitor the value of a treasure pull, and managing the value of monster bits is an effective way of doing it, as player behavior changes in token purchases don’t impact the supply of bits.

Yes, supply is going up. You’re ignoring that more cons equals more players equals more demand.

These recipes are totally unreasonable.

The treasure buff is way to expensive for a barely-stackable half a Nugget that’s designed to be thrown away after two years max.

Kilts going from zero to two Fleece is unreasonable, especially since it’s a demonstrable downgrade for DEX users.

I wasn’t making any relics or legendaries this year anyway, but... damn.

And on top of that I’ve been saving up for the Bead for years, and BAM! I need 50% more trophies this year to finish them?

Half a dozen bitter disappointments in the set was bad enough, but I’d finally gotten down off the ledge. Now I’m back.

Fiddy wrote: I think people that had complained about too many monster bits may be forgetting what happened to the prices on some monster bits the last time we did a story arc token.

And I suspect that if these recipes stay as they are that we'll see some monster bit prices adjust above what happened in 2015/2016.

+1

There was a mad scramble for the first year bits for that transmute. I traded two current year sets for a set from the first year and was very happy with that deal. Others paid much more.

Arnold I agree...

I think I know that there are some of us that like to transmute items and cannot afford these vast recipes. I understand that there are hoarders, I have been playing TD for 5 years and cannot afford many of the recipes... It should not be about what many of the vets have in their coffers (no disrespect vets)

It seems like our economy, the rich get richer.

Sadly I have two friends that just started playing TD two years ago that bought the kilts to make one each, under the assumption that the recipes would be similar to that of eldritch items from before.

Don't get me wrong, give all three of those stats a +4 and 2 fleece might be an option. I know someone had said to add fleece, they could not be more wrong...

Please Jeff get rid of the extra fleece on the Eldritch.

I would like to suggest adding widseths lute as an alternative UR to make the bards relic since the path goes to a legendary that bears his name also.

Lordoftherealm wrote: Arnold I agree...

I think I know that there are some of us that like to transmute items and cannot afford these vast recipes. I understand that there are hoarders, I have been playing TD for 5 years and cannot afford many of the recipes... It should not be about what many of the vets have in their coffers (no disrespect vets)

It seems like our economy, the rich get richer.

Sadly I have two friends that just started playing TD two years ago that bought the kilts to make one each, under the assumption that the recipes would be similar to that of eldritch items from before.

Don't get me wrong, give all three of those stats a +4 and 2 fleece might be an option. I know someone had said to add fleece, they could not be more wrong...

Please Jeff get rid of the extra fleece on the Eldritch.

There was never a Fleece on an Eldritch before.

Last year we one of the three relics required one fleece. The new legendaries took two.

Now are are at two on on the relics and three on Legendaries.


This is an over correction.

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Aothos wrote:

Xavon wrote: That's a lot of Fleece, especially considering its a Story transmute year and extra especially on the Kilt.

Apparently we only cater to the token hoarders these days; further alienating the newer players.

The falling price of a trade good is just part of the open market system.
It should not be Jeff's prerogative to secure the market price of any token.
At best the kilt should only require a single fleece.

I disagree:

True Adventues controls the supply of monster bits / fleece by deciding what the treasure mix is.

True Adventures controls the demand of fleece by deciding what recipes are.

If the price of bits/fleece goes to 0, the value of a treasure pull declines by:
old_price*odds_of_getting_bit

As treasure pulls get devalued:

A. Total effective cost to play the Dungeon increases
B. Demand for URTEs would be predicted to decline
C. Demand for PyPs and tokens would be predicted to decline

Under basic economic assumptions.


It is good business for TD to monitor the value of a treasure pull, and managing the value of monster bits is an effective way of doing it, as player behavior changes in token purchases don’t impact the supply of bits.

Yes, supply is going up. You’re ignoring that more cons equals more players equals more demand.

These recipes are totally unreasonable.

The treasure buff is way to expensive for a barely-stackable half a Nugget that’s designed to be thrown away after two years max.

Kilts going from zero to two Fleece is unreasonable, especially since it’s a demonstrable downgrade for DEX users.

I wasn’t making any relics or legendaries this year anyway, but... damn.

And on top of that I’ve been saving up for the Bead for years, and BAM! I need 50% more trophies this year to finish them?

Half a dozen bitter disappointments in the set was bad enough, but I’d finally gotten down off the ledge. Now I’m back.

Amen Brad, was holding a glimmer of hope and now nothing.

At this point the market will 'correct' be curious to see what changes are on ebay and various consignment shops online (Kirk/Trent) far bit and trade good prices.

I'm wondering again with these recipes who the actual desired/target audience is vs who'll actually make them.

Mike Steele wrote: I'm TOTALLY against having Golden Fleece be part of the Kilt Recipe, much less two of them. For those of us that have been buying multiple Kilt URs to transmute multiple Kilts (I have a group of 10, plus I'd like extras), we've been doing that based on the transmute pattern for these Eldritch tokens. If Golden Fleece were going to be required, it should have been stated up front. Requiring 20 Golden Fleece to outfit my group with Kilts is entirely unreasonable, especially in the year the Story Arc token is issued.

I think it's better to add Golden Fleece to transmutes such as Relics and Legendary tokens where it's unlikely someone that outfits an entire group will be transmuting them.

The Kilt Recipe should be consistent with the Eldritch Ring and Boots recipes. If it is going to vary from that, it should have been announced two years ago.

Why would Eldritch Relics be immune to the same general acceleration of recipe cost we've seen at Relic and Legendary?

Relic GP costs have gone from 2000, to 3000, to 5000 and from no fleece to 1.

Legendaries have gone from requiring a Relic, to a Relic and a UR, to a Relic and 2 URs.

Hawk Fingle wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Fiddy wrote:

Hawk Fingle wrote: I'm against any relics needing any Golden Fleece, and any legendaries needing two or more need some serious justification other than "more pulls at the box means more fleece!", especially in a year where there is a recipe requiring 18 monster bits and another recipe requiring 4 bits.

I didn't like it last year, and I doubly don't like it this year.

I blame the maybe half-dozen people complaining about having too many monster bits and lamenting that they couldn't sell them for prices as high as they used to.

Price of Golden Fleece has gone from 80+ to under 40 in about a year, and stayed there.

Monster bits are a substantial value component of each treasure pull.

As a result the value of treasure pulls has dropped substantially, which hurts everyone who pulls treasure.

And yet the price to attend a con and the price to play TD has gone up.

I don't see more bits being available as a valid argument to increase fleece requirements in recipes when the price to gain them in the first place goes up each year.

Relics should not have fleece, legendaries should have 1, and any more than that needs to be debated on a per-recipe basis that is based on the power of the token and not on current speculation of fleece pricing. I understood the reasons for the hammers last year. I didn't agree with it, but I understood it.

This batch of recipes is ridiculous in its bits and fleece requirements, and I'm going to say so.

I think you've got this exactly backwards.

Your cost to run TD is:

Cost = Ticket price - value of treasure pulls - value of completion tokens.

If the value of treasure pull declines, the cost increases.

The value of treasure pulls has been declining due to the booming supply of monster bits (AoTF in 2015, CoA in 2015, ISSN in 2017, Going from 1 con to 4 in the last few years), and pretty much nothing to increase demand for monster bits.

I agree it may be an overcorrection, but it is a step in the right direction, if a step too far.

Matthew Hayward wrote: Why would Eldritch Relics be immune to the same general acceleration of recipe cost we've seen at Relic and Legendary?

For one, something this extreme should have been announced before everyone embarked on saving up for them.

For another, unless you’re a HP user, this one sucks.