TOPIC: Anticipating Treasure Pulls

I always wondered why anyone would transmute a trophy instead of 80gp. 250 GP made more sense to me, but even that means they're worth about $6. Neither is even close to $10.

You're basically refering to the "4C" speculation.

I agree it is the only reason a monster bit could command more than 250gp in value.

This year I used monster trophies because I had so many of them and no one wanted them. I turned 5 or 6 into GF and another 15 or so into transmutes.

jedibcg wrote: I think most of us assume that the 2013 will all be required for something based on the past. I don't believe Jeff has said that is the case (I accept that I may be mistaken regarding this).

In a nutshell I cannot put a value on anything pulled until I have more information.

Correct. We have not seen anything for certain that this year marks the start of a new 4C token. I am hoping it will, and aim to get a set of ingredients, but no 100.% official word.

I wouldn't expect to see a 4c start until next year if we use the draco charm as a model and assume there will be one when the three year arc rounds out. That said the 2015 leveling ring may be taking that spot so it could be off this time around, but thats only speculation.

I believe that the golden fleece requirement for the plus level ring is what is currently taking place of the 4C item. When the formula was being discussed the golden fleece was added to it so that the monster bits that a normal person doing one run of each dungeon would acquire 10 bits over the next three years.

Alvin Oliver wrote: I believe that the golden fleece requirement for the plus level ring is what is currently taking place of the 4C item. When the formula was being discussed the golden fleece was added to it so that the monster bits that a normal person doing one run of each dungeon would acquire 10 bits over the next three years.

I'm not so sure. Without the 4c, there should be much less interest in chasing ingredients for the next few years. Any ten monster parts is easy to assemble... Three years worth of eight specific components, well, that's what makes the 4c so special.

WaterSomePlants wrote:

Alvin Oliver wrote: I believe that the golden fleece requirement for the plus level ring is what is currently taking place of the 4C item. When the formula was being discussed the golden fleece was added to it so that the monster bits that a normal person doing one run of each dungeon would acquire 10 bits over the next three years.

I'm not so sure. Without the 4c, there should be much less interest in chasing ingredients for the next few years. Any ten monster parts is easy to assemble... Three years worth of eight specific components, well, that's what makes the 4c so special.

This year there is only 4 monster parts. If that trend continues we will have 12 bits over the next three years and needing one fleece per ring and the transmutes for some of the three star relics plus fleece per legendary each year puts a good demand on bits. This of course is all speculation.

Good golly, that's right. I'm thinking back to the years that each dungeon had three or so separate ingredients each.

Still, I'm hoping for the Ring of Heroism, plus a 4c.... we'll see, I suppose (but if there isn't any real need for ingredients to make a 4c, I'm betting the Treasure-heavy box will be hammered).

((with a Hammer of Foss Altus))

With Golden Fleeces usually priced at around $100, I was surprised at the low price of last year's monster bits. I did end up transmuting two for Shirts of, uh, Anti-Retribution Damage, but plan to use gold for future shirts.

I still place treasure draws in the $4-$5 range because of the chance of getting gold, the value of Oil of Enchantment and Argonite etc. If monster bits were consistently worth $10 each, then I think that would make treasure draws solidly worth $5.

Frankly, it might be easier to just offer to purchase (offsite) all of the tokens from someone who isn't interested in playing again after they've used their draws. Say a flat rate of $10-$20 depending.

GF have been going for a lot less than 100 though. I am selling a couple at 60 and had no takers.

Course, there haven't been alot of common sinks for Golden Fleeces yet. I expect their value to increase when the Ring of Heroism is transmutable.