TOPIC: Anticipating Treasure Pulls

During my first treasure pulls, I didn't care about monster trophies. In fact, I was disappointed when I pulled one. Healing and other "useful" tokens were also not that cool.

What excited me the most were simply uncommon or rare tokens that I had not seen before. Back when all I knew about were some of the current year's tokens, pulling a rare weapon that was 2 years old gave me a hint of a vast world behind the scenes. Sigh. A feeling that is easily lost, but one I treasure.

Picc wrote: Also need to remember that formites do not represent the typical TD player behavior. Even the least hardcore of us are usually more hardcore then the average player. There are lots of folks who just don't care about optimizing treasure pulls or farming monster bits and their going to be pulling from the other boxes if only because they sound fun. Granted with treasure pull items formites are likely still going to pull the same amount of tokens as the larger casual population but I trust Jeff and co to have a good idea of how much treasure their going to need to have on hand.

when I was new and not addicted, I drew a monster trophy..and then traded it away for much better stuff(at the time)
that got me trading and into TD

Still hoping to pull a purp from a treasure box. I've gotten 00 bags, but never an UR from a treasure pull.

bpsymington wrote: Still hoping to pull a purp from a treasure box. I've gotten 00 bags, but never an UR from a treasure pull.

i have pulled two..never 00 bag..

I have a feeling that all the boxes will have monster bits in them. The boxes you pull from will probably be based on ratios. If you go to the monster bit trader you'll get a higher chance of getting a monster trophy but you could still get a rare weapon or gold. I cannot imagine a box with only monster bits in it. That would be silly.

Rafiq

P.S. But it would probably make Incognito's day!

Rafiq wrote: I have a feeling that all the boxes will have monster bits in them. The boxes you pull from will probably be based on ratios. If you go to the monster bit trader you'll get a higher chance of getting a monster trophy but you could still get a rare weapon or gold. I cannot imagine a box with only monster bits in it. That would be silly.

Rafiq

P.S. But it would probably make Incognito's day!

I am hoping treasure boxes from each dungeon(like before) but extra treasure draw places for other things(which I prob wont use)

Well, it is all speculation until Jeff chimes in to let us know what he plans on doing with the treasure boxes in more detail.

Rafiq

Rafiq wrote: I have a feeling that all the boxes will have monster bits in them. The boxes you pull from will probably be based on ratios. If you go to the monster bit trader you'll get a higher chance of getting a monster trophy but you could still get a rare weapon or gold. I cannot imagine a box with only monster bits in it. That would be silly.

Rafiq

P.S. But it would probably make Incognito's day!

This is what was implied previously and makes the most sense.

I've never drawn a purp or gotten a 00 bag. Of course, I've only ever had like... 20 bags? ish?

A good friend of mine who is volunteering part time for TD this year just pulled a 00.

She only had enough money to buy two packs of tokens. A whole $16 spent. She pulled an AoW out of one of the packs. I advised her to hang on to that sucker!

Just wondering what people are valueing treasuer pulls at.

Forgive me I'm in a numbers mood apparently.


The avg person is wandering out with 1-2, The decently token prepared is coming out with 8-10 and the fully decked out are hitting 16+ so I suspect the value is going to range a bit.

This might help give a relative value if we said the avg person here might have 8 and value them at the cost of their run so $5.5 per chip.

Is the draw worth that? Many folks here are shooting for monster bits and the highest monster bit usually has a GP replacement value of 250gp that puts the value close at $6.25 The only reason a monster bit would be worth more than that is if it didn't have a replacement gp. All the ones last year did, but the year before had a 4C and no replacement so those were highly valued.

What happens if you don't draw this though? The box seems to have uncommons+ in it. You're sad if you draw an uncommon, indeferent to the rare in most cases and happy with anything else?

If we say in general most uncommons have a value of $2 and rares $4 your avg draw is going to be worth $3. Even the odd purp is going to have a hard time increasing your value, If your drawing 1 purp per 50 your avg increases $1. So now you're hoping rares are the avg in the box.

I think interesting to speculate.
One thing I forgot to account for is the value of the "other things" that are making an appearance this year. All the other things you can do with your chips might lead to some value.

Last year I put the value per pull at about $10. That was based on $38 - the $8 starter pack, less some value for the completion token devided by 3.

The $10 was a little high relative probable actual value of any given pull since most of what you got would either be a monster bit, or rare (valued closer to $5 on average) but there is also the less tangible value assigned to the chance of getting an UR/reserve bar/something else super cool.

The value I would say depends on the rarity of the items being pulled. Last year I believe monster trophies where being pulled between 25% and 30% of of the pulls. I don't have hard data on this just based on my group pulls (28%) and the anecdotal numbers given on the forum. I believe (perhaps very falsely) that this is a higher percent than the past couple years. This drove down the price of the monster bits as we all had more. Again this is my speculation. If monster bits become easier to get by those that want them. The supply goes up and unless the demand goes up as well the value would go down as well. Until we know what is getting pulled out I think it is difficult to put a value it. Again this what I value them at. It will also depend (referring to monster bits) if there things that will require them in next year's transmutes. All the 2011 trophies were required for the highly sought Claw Charm. There was not a similar demand for all the 2012 trophies. I think most of us assume that the 2013 will all be required for something based on the past. I don't believe Jeff has said that is the case (I accept that I may be mistaken regarding this).

In a nutshell I cannot put a value on anything pulled until I have more information.