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TOPIC: Relative Value of Trade Goods for 2023

Relative Value of Trade Goods for 2023 3 months 1 week ago #25

Endgame wrote:

Dave Autzen wrote: I am in that “get joy from pulling treasure” camp. I hope to someday pull a legendary though I know the odds are very against that. But pulling something like a Wish Ring, 25K bar, or even a relic would be amazing. Again, I know the odds are long but it’s the thrill of it. Almost like gambling, but you are certain to end up with something, even it is just destined to be turned into a trade good.

Given the map cost, you're better to directly buy a $185 wish ring or a $300 25k bar over spending money buying maps and crossing fingers, right?

The odds of drawing a wish ring are pretty low. Based on the treasure draw shared sheet for 2022, it is in the range of 1 or 2 in 10,000 or so (I've drawn 2 in 10 years.) Relics are more common at about 1 in 2,000. UR's have been at about 1 in every 150 or 200. Added to those, you have 1K bars, trade goods, etc along with regular UC-R draws.

Someone did an analysis of the relative value of a treasure draw a few years ago. I can't recall who did it but it assumed resale of everything at current market pricing. I tried to recreate that below.

Let's assume you did 1,000 draws using the distribution from 11b reported on the shared sheet and you paid $50 per for 20 draws. That would mean spending $2,500 to get 1,000 draws.
It would have yielded:
39% Rares
34% Uncommons
14% MB's
0.65% UR's
.2% 1K bars
.08% Non-Turkey Leg Relics
.04% Turkey leg relics
.12% Rings of the 5th Circle
.4% exalted and enhanced
1.5% Greaves
1% Eelward Amulets
2.8% Tinker bits
1% 3x pulls
2.85% trade 1
plus smatterings of other stuff at very low probability draws

If we assume all the rares and uc's are being mulched, roughly 4 rares or 8 UCs = 1 trade good. To incorporate Trade 2 and Aragonite, let's say those goods are worth $3 each. That yields a value of rares at $0.75 each and UC's at $0.32 each.

Let's then pricing the UR's at $85 each, the 1K bar at $13, the MB's at $3 each, turkey leg relics at $50, relics at $300, enhanced/exalted at $5 each, Rings of the 5th circle at $75 each, Greaves at $1 each, Eelward amulets at $0.75 each, tinker bits at $10 each (below market but I'm guessing slow to sell), and the trade goods at $2 each. The 3x draws is difficult but let's say you just get UC's and Rares from those so maybe $2 for it.

Here are your yields:
Type drop rate draws value Totals
Rare 0.39 1000 390 0.75 292.5
UC 0.34 1000 340 0.32 108.8
MB 0.14 1000 140 3 420
UR 0.0065 1000 6.5 85 552.5
1K 0.002 1000 2 13 26
Relic 0.0008 1000 0.8 300 240
Turkey Relic 0.0004 1000 0.4 50 20
Ring 5th 0.0012 1000 1.2 85 102
Exalted/Enhanced 0.004 1000 4 5 20
Greaves 0.015 1000 15 1 15
Eelward Amulets 0.01 1000 10 1 10
Tinker 0.028 1000 28 10 280
3x Treasure 0.01 1000 10 2 20
Trade 1 0.0285 1000 28.5 2 57

Your 1,000 draws would be worth just over $2,100 - you would have paid $2,500 at $50 per map. If you can get the map cost down to $2/draw, you would be ahead (so $40 per map). Break even would be $43.26 per map based on v11b results. This is before any shipping costs, etc..

All the math takes the fun out of the draws, though. Personally, I enjoy opening them up to see what I got and collecting pieces to complete things like the totem or the 2023 mystery transmute.

What do we want? Evidence based science! When do we want it? After peer review!

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