TOPIC: QTR 2021 Beta

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: When will these be live to transmute?

New Transmutes generally become available around Spring--after we receive the new tokens and have had a chance to ship all the pre-orders. I'm not saying it will definitely be that way this year, but it's likely.

Druegar wrote:

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: When will these be live to transmute?

New Transmutes generally become available around Spring--after we receive the new tokens and have had a chance to ship all the pre-orders. I'm not saying it will definitely be that way this year, but it's likely.

OK cool.

Thought they might already be on hand to transmute due to the trickle of Reavers hitting treasure box pulls but that makes sense.

Feedback on recipes:

I analyze relic / legendary recipes two ways:

1. How many 1k orders would someone have to fully transmute to get enough materials.

2. What is the market value of the ingredients.

I'm going to compare only the 2020 and 2021 recipes, as the 2020's were a large step up from prior Relic/Legendries in terms of ingredients.

Analysis 1: How many 1k orders would you need to make these?

E.g. if a 1k order for a year averages 5 Alchemist Parchment, and a recipe calls for 10 AP, you would need to mulch 2 entire 1k orders worth of scrolls to transmute one.

Relics: 2020 vs 2021:

The Mage Medallion looks to consume too many ingredients, the others are line with 2020.

Mage Medallion requires 3.2 1k orders worth of AP. The largest number of 1k orders needed for any 2020 relic for any ingredient was 2.8. The largest number of 1k orders needed for any other 2020 Relic for any ingredient is 3.

I'd drop the Mage Medallion AP requirement down to 15 AP.


Legendaries: 2020 vs 2021:

Ashenne's Arch-Made Medallion looks to consume too many ingredients.

Ashenne's requires 4 1k orders worth of Minotaur hide. The largest number of 1k orders needed for any 2020 Legendary for any ingredient was 3.4. The largest number of 1k orders needed for any other 2021 Legendary for any ingredient is 2.5.

I'd drop Ashenne's MH requirement down to 10 MH.

Analysis 2: What is the Market Value of these ingredients.

For market value I take the median value of the last 3 successful 2020 8k auctions I ran.

These values are:
AI: $3
AP: $3.77
AG: $25
DP: $1
DS: $3.10
EB: $12
EM: $2
MH: $2.25
MS: $1.76
OE: $13
PS: $1.5
GP: $14 per 1k

Under these prices the transmute costs of the 2021 Relics and Legendaries are (Excluding C/UC/R/UR and GF ingredients, and assuming Legendary Wish Ring cost is the same as GP for the 15,000 GP requirement):

Amulet of Noble Might: $381
Mage Medallion: $414
Sacred Necklace: $361

Ashenne's: $968
Druegar's: $964
Viv's: $958

The 2020 Relic ranged from $337-$360. The 2020 Legendaries ranged from $916-967.

I have no recommendation here - it's just for TBTP to consider.

Data:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y0VRh27TDMPhIEJoVTcQnShjIpsnX2MO_OtVRURBRA4/edit?usp=sharing

The Cavadar Recipe adds a Golden Fleece and 1,000 GP to the recipe as compared with the Rod of Seven Parts recipe. I don't think that is necessary, in particular the Golden Fleece but also the GP. The Recipe already includes 7 URs (with a market value of around $1,500 or more) and one of each non GF Trade Item Token, which should be more than sufficient as recipe ingredients.

Unlike last year, I don't think that Monster Ingredient Tokens are in a glut status which would lead to a GF being needed in this recipe. I had large amounts of Monster Ingredient Tokens offered to me a year ago for $5 each, this year I didn't have a single person willing to sell at even $6 each, which shows that supply and demand are more in balance.

Also, I'm not sure of the numbers, but it seems like there will be fewer monster tokens entering circulation this year (less supply) due to VTD versus in-person conventions (Jeff's comments about the amount of treasure tokens left over due to the lack of in-person conventions seems to support this). Fewer monster tokens entering supply should support GF being left off of this recipe.

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: I would hope to see a version of the transmute that gives a much larger value to the original printing of the (Mad Evoker's Charm) token.

I would also like to see an alternate recipe here.

Maybe knock 5 AP and 5 AP off the Relic recipe if you trade in an original version.

Druegar wrote: The recipes for Mage Medallion and Ashenne's Arch-Mage Medallion have been adjusted.

Are those live in the doc? I just reloaded it and they look the same to me?

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: I would hope to see a version of the transmute that gives a much larger value to the original printing of the (Mad Evoker's Charm) token.

I would also like to see an alternate recipe here.

Maybe knock 5 AP and 5 AP off the Relic recipe if you trade in an original version.

There is an exchange for the old version even if you get the new version plus a bonus (similar to LoDS). Isn't that motivation enough to exchange the old one?

jedibcg vuvuzela hater wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: I would hope to see a version of the transmute that gives a much larger value to the original printing of the (Mad Evoker's Charm) token.

I would also like to see an alternate recipe here.

Maybe knock 5 AP and 5 AP off the Relic recipe if you trade in an original version.

There is an exchange for the old version even if you get the new version plus a bonus (similar to LoDS). Isn't that motivation enough to exchange the old one?

The change to LoDS != the destruction to the MEC. The 'errata' changes it from a $400 token to only worth using as a transmute bit.

LoDS is still usable, MEC is not

Fiddy wrote: I suggest reducing the number of Alchemist Parchment for the Mage Medallion. Reasoning: By my calculations the cost of building Mage Medallion is significantly more costly to make than the other two class Relics in 2021. I realize that it really depends on what numbers you plug in as the values for the different trade goods, but it seems like AP has the largest numeric difference between the three compared to other goods, and AP tends to be at the top end of the Trade 1 tier in value.

I would suggest reducing AI rather than AP, as I think AI is currently the scarcest level 1 trade good.

Mike Steele wrote: The Cavadar Recipe adds a Golden Fleece and 1,000 GP to the recipe as compared with the Rod of Seven Parts recipe. I don't think that is necessary, in particular the Golden Fleece but also the GP. The Recipe already includes 7 URs (with a market value of around $1,500 or more) and one of each non GF Trade Item Token, which should be more than sufficient as recipe ingredients.

Unlike last year, I don't think that Monster Ingredient Tokens are in a glut status which would lead to a GF being needed in this recipe. I had large amounts of Monster Ingredient Tokens offered to me a year ago for $5 each, this year I didn't have a single person willing to sell at even $6 each, which shows that supply and demand are more in balance.

Also, I'm not sure of the numbers, but it seems like there will be fewer monster tokens entering circulation this year (less supply) due to VTD versus in-person conventions (Jeff's comments about the amount of treasure tokens left over due to the lack of in-person conventions seems to support this). Fewer monster tokens entering supply should support GF being left off of this recipe.

I don't think there will be fewer entering circulation this year than last. There may be fewer total runs being completed (I don't know for certain) but there are almost certainly a higher percentage of runs with full TE than ever before due to the virtual nature of the events.

The recipe doesn't include 7 URs, it includes the 7 teeth (premium tokens).

I think it's reasonable to expect that over 7 years, recipes will get at least a little more expensive. The ring of heroism required a golden fleece. Every relic for the last few years has required a golden fleece.

Arcanist Kolixela wrote:
The change to LoDS != the destruction to the MEC. The 'errata' changes it from a $400 token to only worth using as a transmute bit.

LoDS is still usable, MEC is not

Part of that 'loss' in value is that it is being reprinted though not just the nerf. I believe LoDS was near $400 before its reprint as well and is not that again.

jedibcg vuvuzela hater wrote: I recommend that the relics, Legendary and Skull of Cavadar go back to 0 Golden Fleece and 1 Golden Fleece for 2021. My rational behind this is that 2020 Monster Bits were half of what they should have been. Monster bits of VTD series are in an odd state, in which we have 6 which will be in V1a, V1b, V2a, V2b, V3a and V3b then change for the next 4 "VTD4a and beyond, we will modify the treasure stock so lots of the high value tokens (like Monster Bits, Ultra Rares, Relics, Legendaries, Transmutes) will convert over to 2021 Treasure Tokens in the Treasure Mix." The 6 dungeons of 1000 to 1200 tickets does not seem like enough dungeons to get a large number of these 2020 monsters bits into hands that the increase in monster bits seems to warrant. Gen Con alone is 8000 tickets worth of monster bits, not counting Origins, GHC, PAX that was used to justify the increase in the GF at relic and legendary.

I don't care too much (it will benefit me if your proposal is adopted), but...

1. GF is still selling for under $70 (recent eBay sales are $69, $61.69, and less than $74.95 (that was the listing price and we know a lower 'best offer' was accepted). This means demand for MBs is not high compared to historic values - there have been years long periods were GF was ~$90.

2. It's possible A LOT of monster bits are sitting on the sidelines about to become useless for anything other than GF. Bead of the Lucky Traveler and Orion's Belt have not proven very popular (BoTLT can be had for under $130 - it requires 18 MBs to craft). Due to the extension of the crafting deadlines. I personally thing this is the case.

Of course the extension of recipes for BotLT and BoO mean these may sit on the sidelines through next year as well.

3. Only TPTB know how much treasure is going out in the VTD series relative to physical conventions - but I would be entirely unsurprised if much more MBs are getting into circulation due to higher incidents of high treasure adventurers in VTD.

jedibcg vuvuzela hater wrote:

Arcanist Kolixela wrote:
The change to LoDS != the destruction to the MEC. The 'errata' changes it from a $400 token to only worth using as a transmute bit.

LoDS is still usable, MEC is not

Part of that 'loss' in value is that it is being reprinted though not just the nerf. I believe LoDS was near $400 before its reprint as well and is not that again.

IIRC it was 250-300

And yes, the reprint is part of that loss.

But if the token errata stayed and the reprint was removed the value of the MEC would not recover to $400 EVER. It's a MASSIVE CHANGE.

I don't expect the new MEC will EVER breach $150 in cost, even 10 years from now, given how terrible the change is