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TOPIC: Treasure Inflation

Treasure Inflation 2 months 2 weeks ago #73

Jamie Campbell wrote: perfect. now that we agree on exception....and everyone on this forum is probably the exception....

does the PLAYER (not on the forum)...think about their token build? what is the player journey in those player's minds? once we understand their journey...the sooner we get a datapoint on if there really is inflation...


WHAT? no that won't tell us if there is treasure inflation. Only if we know what is in the treasure boxes would know if the boxes are inflating or not. I think you may be using the term completely different that I understand it and that the original poster mentioned.
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Treasure Inflation 2 months 2 weeks ago #74

jedibcg wrote:

Jamie Campbell wrote: ...


I will say it again. I don't know that we have enough data to know if there is treasure inflation. At the UR level only I would say there is a trend for the 3 data points we have. The fourth data point we don't know if it valid or not. At OTHER (non pack rares, non pack uncommon, non monster bits). The 3 valid point show NO trend.


Jedi - I'll clarify a bit as I both agree and disagree with you.
What we know:
1. We know that the percent of UR's and similarly higher value items is lower than it has been in the past. The data gathered very clearly demonstrates that change over the past 4 years.
Just looking at GenCon:
2019 .30% on 7417 draws (a 25% decrease from the prior year)
2018 .41% on 5604 draws (a 36% decrease from the prior year)
2017 .64% on 9554 draws (a 63% decrease from the prior year)
2016 1.65% on 5507 draws

- My guess is the 2016 the UR rate was higher than TD intended as it is such as big variance from other years. We probably shouldn't treat that as a norm. It is also the first year we appear to have tracked the data. The UR rates are generally slightly higher at non GenCon conventions but the change delta for where we have a lot of data (Origins and GenCon) remains similar.

2. We know, from Jeff, that the total amount of treasure distributed is more (in terms of raw number of tokens given out as treasure) than it has been going from 2018 to 2019. We don't know if that is a function of more players or from the TE's.
-We can infer it is a mix of both. We know that most veterans are now getting more treasure pulls on each run. It is possible that vets have decreased the number of runs or ghosts they have, though. We also know more tickets for runs sold each year since 2016 (with one year somewhat flatlining because of fewer runs at GenCon than the prior year).

3. The percent of treasure that is only uncommons and rares has increased by 11% and 12% respectively (Uncommons: 35.26% to 39.70% and Rares: 35.54% to 39.98%). The prior 2 years, I believe (please correct me if I am recalling the data incorrectly), saw similar increases in the uncommons/rares as an overall percent of treasure (though, by smaller % increases).
4. Monster bit rates have floated a bit since 2016 from 23% to 34% with 2019 being an outlier at 17% that was an accident. It is also likely that 2018 was an outlier because we had more different monster bits that year than was normal probably resulting in that increase.

Trying to avoid derailing the original intent of the thread going into too much depth on what is really good for new players to get versus what vets want, we know that the percent of the lowest value items has increased of the overall draws. The odds of a new player (or anyone else) getting a UR has dropped by more than half in 2 years.

The draw inflation is a simple fact. Vets have more TE's. New players getting into UR's are getting more TE's than other tokens (they are the biggest sellers). The maximum draws by vets has increased by 4 over 3 years. We know more draws are done per run than have been done historically unless a huge swath of the vet base has left and not been replaced - there is no evidence that hundreds of vets have quit over the past 3 years. Dozens perhaps but we also see new players jumping in at the UR level in the forums as well.

Heading back to the original point - with the relative value of typical draws being diluted, new players are less likely to get a really valuable token and vets are more likely to get tokens that we'll mulch for trade goods and have more to mulch than in the past in gross amount terms.

I like the idea of capping TE's. I was incorrect at 25 before, 23 is a more likely number because of the next Ioun Stone (unless the transmute Jeff mentioned using AoTF further expands treasure - in which case, 25 may be a good cap). Stick with that cap long-term and let new players have other ways to get to that cap with new tokens. A suggestion was made of a new CoA recipe that might be slotless or slightly better - that's a great idea and may actually drive vets to switch.
-Capped TE's means TD will have a predictable model of how much treasure will be drawn and can balance percentages much more easily of what should be included.

One refrain keeps coming back frequently in this thread. New players should draw something immediately useful for them. There is a great case for having a newer player draw box that only has UCs, Rares, URs, Relics, and Legendaries with no other tokens (no monster bits, no gold UCs or Rares or gold bars, etc.) Every token drawn should be potentially usable in their next run. Maybe even seed it more with rare armor and weapons, healing potions, and scrolls.

It should have a cap on how many draws you can do (maybe 3 per wrist-band?) and a higher percent of URs+ than other boxes. Vets may draw from it some but, without monster bits or similar, they wouldn't do so exclusively.

Solving for the problem of vets getting massive poundage of draws, have the ability for us to save up our treasure draws and just give those to TD in lots of 25 or 100 or some large number for a bag with fewer tokens but similar value (ie trade goods instead of UCs and Rares) where 100 draws might equate to 5 or 10 tokens but would be ones we wouldn't have to transmute. It wouldn't even need to happen at the epilogue. Having this would mean TD would need fewer tokens for conventions (by a pretty significant amount - likely 20% or 30% fewer) and epilogues would go faster (and we'd not have to spend time and effort doing unnecessary transmutes).

Fred
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Treasure Inflation 2 months 2 weeks ago #75

Fred K wrote: One refrain keeps coming back frequently in this thread. New players should draw something immediately useful for them. There is a great case for having a newer player draw box that only has UCs, Rares, URs, Relics, and Legendaries with no other tokens (no monster bits, no gold UCs or Rares or gold bars, etc.) Every token drawn should be potentially usable in their next run. Maybe even seed it more with rare armor and weapons, healing potions, and scrolls.

It should have a cap on how many draws you can do (maybe 3 per wrist-band?) and a higher percent of URs+ than other boxes. Vets may draw from it some but, without monster bits or similar, they wouldn't do so exclusively.

Fred

I still don't necessarily think this answer is the best one. It involves maintaining multiple treasure boxes, and tracking number of draws from the different boxes. The rares and uncommons in the box are actually fine for newer players and often times go into builds if my group (and sub groups) are typical for newer groups. My only comment treasure box wise is it would be nice is if more than the current year's rares and uncommons were in the box, since a single year doesn't necessarily cover all the slots. Staple items (Beryl Prism, +2 Cloak of Resistance, etc) would be nice to see in the box.

I still think the best answer is to increase the usefulness of the completion token, and do away with the generally subpar uncommon completion tokens. Make them all rare, and have them be in line with the Jasper Ellipsoid, Earcuff of the Sacred, Amulet of Shock, and Charm of the Elk - all completion tokens that are better than normal rares (sometimes significantly so). Let new players build better characters just from running the dungeons, and let the treasure box be a nice little perk, but not the main event.

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Treasure Inflation 2 months 2 weeks ago #76

Fred K wrote:
3. The percent of treasure that is only uncommons and rares has increased by 11% and 12% respectively (Uncommons: 35.26% to 39.70% and Rares: 35.54% to 39.98%). The prior 2 years, I believe (please correct me if I am recalling the data incorrectly), saw similar increases in the uncommons/rares as an overall percent of treasure (though, by smaller % increases).


Rares and Uncomons (pack only rares) year to year that we have data on.
2016 37.95% Rare 38.28% Uncommon
2017 37.35% Rare 38.74% Uncommon
2018 33.15% Rare 31.98% Uncommon
2019 43.04% Rare 39.41% Uncommon* You cannot treat this data as normal. We know there should have been at least double the amount of monster bits in the box perhaps more because we don't know exact what Jeff meant by he ordered the same amount. Whatever the increase it would decrease the percentage of Rares and Uncommons. I have also suggested there might have been OTHER lower than expected we don't know this but it seems likely to me.

So from where I view the data we have 3 known valid points. In those 3 valid points we do have a decrease in UR+ HOWEVER we do not have increase in Rare and Uncommon. 2018 was the lowest of the 3 years. The other 2 are very close. If you only double the number of Monster Bits for 2019. Rares goes to 39.36% for Gen Con. I admit this is an increase from 2018, and the two closer 2017 and 2016 data points, but is closer to those other two. If OTHER were doubled as well (which is the theory I keep suggesting) Rare becomes 36.61%, again an increase from 2018 but really in line with the other two years. So yes I don't know that 2019 should have had more OTHER. But we don't know that it shouldn't have. Either way adding in the monster bits it should have had brings it closer to being inline with the others.

For Monster bits I doubled the total number of pulled. That number however would be higher if Jeff actually meant he should have order the same number of each monster bit.
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Last edit: by jedibcg.

Treasure Inflation 2 months 2 weeks ago #77

Fred K wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Jamie Campbell wrote: ...


I will say it again. I don't know that we have enough data to know if there is treasure inflation. At the UR level only I would say there is a trend for the 3 data points we have. The fourth data point we don't know if it valid or not. At OTHER (non pack rares, non pack uncommon, non monster bits). The 3 valid point show NO trend.


Jedi - I'll clarify a bit as I both agree and disagree with you.
What we know:
1. We know that the percent of UR's and similarly higher value items is lower than it has been in the past. The data gathered very clearly demonstrates that change over the past 4 years.
Just looking at GenCon:
2019 .30% on 7417 draws (a 25% decrease from the prior year)
2018 .41% on 5604 draws (a 36% decrease from the prior year)
2017 .64% on 9554 draws (a 63% decrease from the prior year)
2016 1.65% on 5507 draws

- My guess is the 2016 the UR rate was higher than TD intended as it is such as big variance from other years. We probably shouldn't treat that as a norm. It is also the first year we appear to have tracked the data. The UR rates are generally slightly higher at non GenCon conventions but the change delta for where we have a lot of data (Origins and GenCon) remains similar.

2. We know, from Jeff, that the total amount of treasure distributed is more (in terms of raw number of tokens given out as treasure) than it has been going from 2018 to 2019. We don't know if that is a function of more players or from the TE's.
-We can infer it is a mix of both. We know that most veterans are now getting more treasure pulls on each run. It is possible that vets have decreased the number of runs or ghosts they have, though. We also know more tickets for runs sold each year since 2016 (with one year somewhat flatlining because of fewer runs at GenCon than the prior year).

3. The percent of treasure that is only uncommons and rares has increased by 11% and 12% respectively (Uncommons: 35.26% to 39.70% and Rares: 35.54% to 39.98%). The prior 2 years, I believe (please correct me if I am recalling the data incorrectly), saw similar increases in the uncommons/rares as an overall percent of treasure (though, by smaller % increases).
4. Monster bit rates have floated a bit since 2016 from 23% to 34% with 2019 being an outlier at 17% that was an accident. It is also likely that 2018 was an outlier because we had more different monster bits that year than was normal probably resulting in that increase.

Trying to avoid derailing the original intent of the thread going into too much depth on what is really good for new players to get versus what vets want, we know that the percent of the lowest value items has increased of the overall draws. The odds of a new player (or anyone else) getting a UR has dropped by more than half in 2 years.

The draw inflation is a simple fact. Vets have more TE's. New players getting into UR's are getting more TE's than other tokens (they are the biggest sellers). The maximum draws by vets has increased by 4 over 3 years. We know more draws are done per run than have been done historically unless a huge swath of the vet base has left and not been replaced - there is no evidence that hundreds of vets have quit over the past 3 years. Dozens perhaps but we also see new players jumping in at the UR level in the forums as well.

Heading back to the original point - with the relative value of typical draws being diluted, new players are less likely to get a really valuable token and vets are more likely to get tokens that we'll mulch for trade goods and have more to mulch than in the past in gross amount terms.

I like the idea of capping TE's. I was incorrect at 25 before, 23 is a more likely number because of the next Ioun Stone (unless the transmute Jeff mentioned using AoTF further expands treasure - in which case, 25 may be a good cap). Stick with that cap long-term and let new players have other ways to get to that cap with new tokens. A suggestion was made of a new CoA recipe that might be slotless or slightly better - that's a great idea and may actually drive vets to switch.
-Capped TE's means TD will have a predictable model of how much treasure will be drawn and can balance percentages much more easily of what should be included.

One refrain keeps coming back frequently in this thread. New players should draw something immediately useful for them. There is a great case for having a newer player draw box that only has UCs, Rares, URs, Relics, and Legendaries with no other tokens (no monster bits, no gold UCs or Rares or gold bars, etc.) Every token drawn should be potentially usable in their next run. Maybe even seed it more with rare armor and weapons, healing potions, and scrolls.

It should have a cap on how many draws you can do (maybe 3 per wrist-band?) and a higher percent of URs+ than other boxes. Vets may draw from it some but, without monster bits or similar, they wouldn't do so exclusively.

Solving for the problem of vets getting massive poundage of draws, have the ability for us to save up our treasure draws and just give those to TD in lots of 25 or 100 or some large number for a bag with fewer tokens but similar value (ie trade goods instead of UCs and Rares) where 100 draws might equate to 5 or 10 tokens but would be ones we wouldn't have to transmute. It wouldn't even need to happen at the epilogue. Having this would mean TD would need fewer tokens for conventions (by a pretty significant amount - likely 20% or 30% fewer) and epilogues would go faster (and we'd not have to spend time and effort doing unnecessary transmutes).

Fred


Another Unintended consequence is going to be the creation or draw of vultures. If new players are getting a better token draw then vets the unscrupulous will be standing by waiting to take those off their hands. Not every new player is going to return and play as well as many new players just have no clue what they’re getting. And sometimes it takes a while to figure that out. So by creating a disparate draw people are going to attempt to take advantage of that in any way they can
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Last edit: by Bob Chasan.

Treasure Inflation 2 months 2 weeks ago #78

jedibcg wrote:

Jamie Campbell wrote: perfect. now that we agree on exception....and everyone on this forum is probably the exception....

does the PLAYER (not on the forum)...think about their token build? what is the player journey in those player's minds? once we understand their journey...the sooner we get a datapoint on if there really is inflation...


WHAT? no that won't tell us if there is treasure inflation. Only if we know what is in the treasure boxes would know if the boxes are inflating or not. I think you may be using the term completely different that I understand it and that the original poster mentioned.


True. I think Friday afternoon beer distracted me here
Jamie
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Treasure Inflation 2 months 2 weeks ago #79

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Bob Chasan wrote: Another Unintended consequence is going to be the creation of draw of vultures. If new players are getting a better token draw then vets the unscrupulous will be standing by waiting to take those off their hands. Not every new player is going to return and play as well as many new players just have no clue what they’re getting. And sometimes it takes a while to figure that out. So by creating a disparate draw people are going to attempt to take advantage of that in any way they can


That exact thing happened in 2013 when we had the Wertz treasure box.
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Last edit: by Harlax.

Treasure Inflation 2 months 2 weeks ago #80

I'm sure the vulturing will happen. It happens today but I suspect less. The question is just what level of change would there be?

Another important change today, though, is that the draws are usually done after the run in epilogue rather than in the general area (ie only people right after runs are there). TD does a pretty good job of shoo-ing people away once they are done with their run.

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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #81

Endgame wrote: ...it would be nice if more than the current year's rares and uncommons were in the box, since a single year doesn't necessarily cover all the slots. Staple items (Beryl Prism, +2 Cloak of Resistance, etc) would be nice to see in the box.


It would be simply amazing to have a "core set" of build staples always "in print" via the treasure boxes. It would go a long way towards the goal of having something immediately useful, especially with the limited space in each year's collection.

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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #82

Marcques Domask wrote:

Endgame wrote: ...it would be nice if more than the current year's rares and uncommons were in the box, since a single year doesn't necessarily cover all the slots. Staple items (Beryl Prism, +2 Cloak of Resistance, etc) would be nice to see in the box.


It would be simply amazing to have a "core set" of build staples always "in print" via the treasure boxes. It would go a long way towards the goal of having something immediately useful, especially with the limited space in each year's collection.


It would be neat for some out of print key tokens to be included in the treasure boxes each year, but maybe with the current (or some variant) year symbol, so they would be of value to newer players and neat collectibles for collectors.

I'd love to see something like another set of Artisan tokens as well - maybe with quantities in the 10-25 each range, so it would be a real challenge for someone to collect them all.

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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #83

Mike Steele wrote:

Marcques Domask wrote:

Endgame wrote: ...it would be nice if more than the current year's rares and uncommons were in the box, since a single year doesn't necessarily cover all the slots. Staple items (Beryl Prism, +2 Cloak of Resistance, etc) would be nice to see in the box.


It would be simply amazing to have a "core set" of build staples always "in print" via the treasure boxes. It would go a long way towards the goal of having something immediately useful, especially with the limited space in each year's collection.


It would be neat for some out of print key tokens to be included in the treasure boxes each year, but maybe with the current (or some variant) year symbol, so they would be of value to newer players and neat collectibles for collectors.


+1

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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #84

TD isn’t solitaire. Jeff has made decisions in the past to specifically encourage people to interact and trade with each other, and that’s one of the things that has made out community what it is, for better or worse.

With the average player drawing 3 chips per run, I don’t think salting the loot with off-year tokens is going to help the people who need it.

And IMO, between Transmorph and Fragments and two dozen completion/loot-only tokens per year today, we already have way too many chase tokens. Please, I beg you, no more. In fact I’d rather have less.
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