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TOPIC: Treasure Inflation

Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #109

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Beertram wrote:

Jamie Campbell wrote: I will say, I am disappointed with the notion of inflation. My group’s hope was that we could buy CoAs and then “work” for the rest. With the draw of UR drops down so badly, we quickly realized “working” for it wasn’t efficient even though between us we were doing 100 draws a run...as a result, we joined the ranks of auction buying to achieve.

Know this, whether you like or not, the current CoA was the method to stop pay to play...but with the mix changes, we unwound the effect and are right back to pay to play. Meaning, to get tokens you must buy them from 8Ks or secondary market if older.

I can say We as a group made some choices:
If we found UR at 1% draws...then we had no problem spending 5 people running and buy all the dungeons. Even so far as we were going to play nightmare and gruel through it instead of playing a ton of normals...(not fun)
The drop rate was not even close to 1%

So, now that we see from our runs that 1D100 doesn’t work on treasure draws...we had to reassess

It made sense to us in the beginning...$250 bought you 30 packs and 1UR choice...$58x5=$290...we thought we would see 1 UR.


Hang in there. I think your group was very wise to go that route -- even if the mix wasn't great this year, your COA's will pay off eventually.


I have seen some truly spectacular things come out of treasure boxes. Someone has to pull that 25k gold bar.
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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #110

Harlax wrote:
I have seen some truly spectacular things come out of treasure boxes. Someone has to pull that 25k gold bar.


It goes higher than the 25k bar. I assume it's only like 1 of each every year, but legendaries are in there.

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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #111

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Aegoce wrote:

Harlax wrote:
I have seen some truly spectacular things come out of treasure boxes. Someone has to pull that 25k gold bar.


It goes higher than the 25k bar. I assume it's only like 1 of each every year, but legendaries are in there.


Yes, I pulled a legendary one year and a relic the next. I have burned all my treasure box karma.
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir

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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #112

Harlax wrote:

Aegoce wrote:

Harlax wrote:
I have seen some truly spectacular things come out of treasure boxes. Someone has to pull that 25k gold bar.


It goes higher than the 25k bar. I assume it's only like 1 of each every year, but legendaries are in there.


Yes, I pulled a legendary one year and a relic the next. I have burned all my treasure box karma.


No legendarys for me, but 3 relics, 1 dragon orb, 1 5K bar, and 1 UR
I seem to have 1 or 2 great pulls a year.

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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #113

Jamie Campbell wrote:

Fred K wrote:

Jamie Campbell wrote: I will say, I am disappointed with the notion of inflation. My group’s hope was that we could buy CoAs and then “work” for the rest. With the draw of UR drops down so badly, we quickly realized “working” for it wasn’t efficient even though between us we were doing 100 draws a run...as a result, we joined the ranks of auction buying to achieve.

Know this, whether you like or not, the current CoA was the method to stop pay to play...but with the mix changes, we unwound the effect and are right back to pay to play. Meaning, to get tokens you must buy them from 8Ks or secondary market if older.

I can say We as a group made some choices:
If we found UR at 1% draws...then we had no problem spending 5 people running and buy all the dungeons. Even so far as we were going to play nightmare and gruel through it instead of playing a ton of normals...(not fun)
The drop rate was not even close to 1%

So, now that we see from our runs that 1D100 doesn’t work on treasure draws...we had to reassess

It made sense to us in the beginning...$250 bought you 30 packs and 1UR choice...$58x5=$290...we thought we would see 1 UR.


1% UR's is probably a good rate for those draws from treasure boxes. It would match what the web site says for 10 packs. New players don't really get the distinction between 10 packs and the treasure box. We had this in the past but it has dropped to less than half of that now. Getting a UR from 10 packs is still cheaper than via runs at 1% of the draws (there aren't runs at $20 per slot where you could apply 21 draws and take 5 slots for $100 invested). Your cheapest runs are probably closer to $45 per slot meaning $225 per UR minus the value of everything else drawn (usually somewhat negligible).

It really does seem to make sense to have more than 1 draw box the more everyone discusses it.
1 box for draws of UC, Rares, relics, URs, and legendaries.
1 box for monster bits, trade goods, map fragments, gold bars, and other random odds and ends.

The second box should cost more to draw (some multiple of draws from the normal box) but not have a ton that is immediately usable for the average player. By comparison, the first box should be nothing but immediately usable draws (no treasure, bits, and even pull out gold if possible) just equipment, potion, scrolls, etc..

The confused and disappointed look from newer players drawing oil of enchantment then hearing it can't be used in-game says it all. The disappointed look from vets drawing 80 UCs and rares, 3 monster bits, and an enchanter's whetstone is as equally telling (it's "sigh, do I have time during the con to transmute this so I'm not carrying an extra 5# of tokens home...)

Fred


Fred,

I read this first part a few times. Getting 100 10 packs...$825. Now with $80*10...cost of full run...200 pulls...someone should see a UR making this 0.5%.

I used the pulls spreadsheet to get the idea of UR pull rates. I am responding on my phone, but the theory is this:

If I spend $580 (10 slots) and 20 pulls each...200 pulls...I would expect to see 2 URs to match up to what I would do with two $250 orders (60 10paks and 2UR choices)

I got an Oil of Enchantment...nice to get...

Gen Con Only UR+ percentages
2019 .30% on 7417 draws
2018 .41% on 5604 draws
2017 .64% on 9554 draws
2016 1.65% on 5507 draws
...thanks Jedi posting

So...in the end...I think the idea they have done is to make it such that a full run of CoA. One draw WILL be the UR. (Probabilities of course)

But this means simply the spend doesn’t match up. $250 for a UR. Or $580 for same UR. ..and other things sure and “fun”. But not at 2x the price


My mistake on the 1%. I was thinking 1% of all tokens purchased in 10 packs, not 1% of 10 packs would have an UR. Brain fart on my part there. Yes, 100 - 10 packs would be $800 and a much worse deal than either a $250 purchase or doing runs. The 1% correlation doesn't fit, you are right there.

Keep in mind, I do runs for the fun of it. I like doing the same run more than once to either 1) figure out the puzzles I couldn't get the first (or fifth time - stupid skull-gem puzzle) or 2) to catch things I missed the first run - both dungeon details but also alternate NPC interactions. Sometimes, we do a run more than once just for enjoying the company of other friends who haven't done it before (I tend to go support roles in those runs).

My primary argument isn't to make runs profitable. That's a recipe for problems. Assuming ~20 pulls per slot purchased and $50 as the lowest price point for a slot, that works out to $2.5 per draw. If 100 draws costs $250 and nets a UR 1% of the draws, that is likely too high a percent as it makes it better than a $250 purchase from TD while blocking slots for players (since you'll get monster bits, etc..) Maybe something like .75% or .6% would work better if everything remained the same as it is today.

Even better, have the two box solution I presented (with a slightly higher UR percent than we saw this year.) Something that helps newer players with more immediately usable tokens would be helpful. If it isn't a separate box - maybe a trade-in for monster bits or similar in exchange for a certain number of rares the player could choose from that year? For the large draws, we could also have an option for players to get a "condensed" draw set for every 100 tokens that doesn't include any rares or uncommons (presented as post-transmuted trade goods). TD already has bags of 100 set aside for people with 100+ pulls - why not just have those be post-transmute? If people are interested in non-transmuted, they could just do the draws.

My goal is to recommend ways to help new players get cool things they really want and to minimize the hassle of pounds of tokens destined to be transmuted and mulched.

Fred
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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #114

I am going to start a new thread for pulls because sounds like people want to talk about what they have pulled and it is off topic.
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #115

Let’s put it this way. Nothing stops your party from getting your party card, telling your coach you have nothing but TEs to record, then waltzing straight to the epilogue desk to collect your loot. A well oiled party of five farmers could probably pull that three to five times AN HOUR. (At least until they figure out how to stop it, and then it will just get abused some other way.) If the day ever comes when you knew that the average value of your treasure would equal or exceed the cost of the ticket, TD is dead. Farmers would snap up all the tickets and newbies and casual players would be frozen out. Without new players, the community stagnates and dies. The end.

So that is why we either have to cap the treasure or dilute the loot as people are able to draw more and more each game. Or, stop raising the cap, but there are too many people who simply will not accept that answer. Or they can jack up ticket prices, but none of us want that, either.

Regardless, TD has to do one of the four to ensure the average value of a ticket’s worth of loot is always less than the price of the ticket. It is not hyperbole to say that just leaving the mix the same as more URTEs are released would eventually kill TD altogether.

Whatever TD decides to do will tick off one group of players or another, but they have to do something.
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Last edit: by Brad Mortensen.

Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #116

Brad Mortensen wrote: Let’s put it this way. Nothing stops your party from getting your party card, telling your coach you have nothing but TEs to record, then waltzing straight to the epilogue desk to collect your loot. A well oiled party of five farmers could probably pull that three to five times AN HOUR. (At least until they figure out how to stop it, and then it will just get abused some other way.) If the day ever comes when you knew that the average value of your treasure would equal or exceed the cost of the ticket, TD is dead. Farmers would snap up all the tickets and newbies and casual players would be frozen out. Without new players, the community stagnates and dies. The end.

So that is why we either have to cap the treasure or dilute the loot as people are able to draw more and more each game. Or, stop raising the cap, but there are too many people who simply will not accept that answer. Or they can jack up ticket prices, but none of us want that, either.

Regardless, TD has to do one of the four to ensure the average value of a ticket’s worth of loot is always less than the price of the ticket. It is not hyperbole to say that just leaving the mix the same as more URTEs are released would eventually kill TD altogether.

Whatever TD decides to do will tick off one group of players or another, but they have to do something.


I don’t think you can skip the dungeon and go straight to the epilogue room, so I think at best a group can get a set of pulls every 2 hours.

Next with the price of tickets going up at a higher pace than treasure pulls I don’t think we need to worry about pulls being profitable any time soon. A player may have good enough pulls to make a con profitable, but on average most of us loses money on runs.

Runs are now $68 at cons other than gencon and $80 at gencon. So statistically I’ll lose money on most run just not a lot. Then there is hotel cost, parking, food, and badge for the con. We are a long way from making money on this.

TEs give the game replay ability by effectively lowering cost.

I think ghosting is fine because TD still gets the money and no one gets exploited IMO.

I feel if someone wants to play on a run with me using one of my ticket intended for a ghost (not paying me anything for the ticket) and me keeping the loot with that understanding before the run, then that’s ok.

The only thing I’m in favor of changing is eliminating players loaning out TEs to players and asking for half the loot back in return. Note that I’m talking about players that payed for there own ticket being the one being asked to give half the loot to the person loaning the TEs. That’s the only way I see doing runs profitable and I also think it’s exploitation of new players.

Everything else seems within the spirit of the way TEs were intended when first produced.

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Last edit: by Wayne Rhodes.

Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #117

Wayne Rhodes wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote: Let’s put it this way. Nothing stops your party from getting your party card, telling your coach you have nothing but TEs to record, then waltzing straight to the epilogue desk to collect your loot. A well oiled party of five farmers could probably pull that three to five times AN HOUR. (At least until they figure out how to stop it, and then it will just get abused some other way.) If the day ever comes when you knew that the average value of your treasure would equal or exceed the cost of the ticket, TD is dead. Farmers would snap up all the tickets and newbies and casual players would be frozen out. Without new players, the community stagnates and dies. The end.

So that is why we either have to cap the treasure or dilute the loot as people are able to draw more and more each game. Or, stop raising the cap, but there are too many people who simply will not accept that answer. Or they can jack up ticket prices, but none of us want that, either.

Regardless, TD has to do one of the four to ensure the average value of a ticket’s worth of loot is always less than the price of the ticket. It is not hyperbole to say that just leaving the mix the same as more URTEs are released would eventually kill TD altogether.

Whatever TD decides to do will tick off one group of players or another, but they have to do something.


I don’t think you can skip the dungeon and go straight to the epilogue room, so I think at best a group can get a set of pulls every 2 hours.

Next with the price of tickets going up at a higher pace than treasure pulls I don’t think we need to worry about pulls being profitable any time soon. A player may have good enough pulls to make a con profitable, but on average most of us loses money on runs.

Runs are now $68 at cons other than gencon and $80 at gencon. So statistically I’ll lose money on most run just not a lot. Then there is hotel cost, parking, food, and badge for the con. We are a long way from making money on this.

TEs give the game replay ability by effectively lowering cost.

I think ghosting is fine because TD still gets the money and no one gets exploited IMO.

I feel if someone wants to play on a run with me using one of my ticket intended for a ghost (not paying me anything for the ticket) and me keeping the loot with that understanding before the run, then that’s ok.

The only thing I’m in favor of changing is eliminating players loaning out TEs to players and asking for half the loot back in return. Note that I’m talking about players that payed for there own ticket being the one being asked to give half the loot to the person loaning the TEs. That’s the only way I see doing runs profitable and I also think it’s exploitation of new players.

Everything else seems within the spirit of the way TEs were intended when first produced.


I completely agree that we shouldn't ask for a cut for loaning out TEs. When I loan them out whatever people get is theirs. It doesn't feel comfortable otherwise - just a shady feel to it.

Fred
What do we want? Evidence based science! When do we want it? After peer review!

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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #118

Fred K wrote:

Wayne Rhodes wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote: Let’s put it this way. Nothing stops your party from getting your party card, telling your coach you have nothing but TEs to record, then waltzing straight to the epilogue desk to collect your loot. A well oiled party of five farmers could probably pull that three to five times AN HOUR. (At least until they figure out how to stop it, and then it will just get abused some other way.) If the day ever comes when you knew that the average value of your treasure would equal or exceed the cost of the ticket, TD is dead. Farmers would snap up all the tickets and newbies and casual players would be frozen out. Without new players, the community stagnates and dies. The end.

So that is why we either have to cap the treasure or dilute the loot as people are able to draw more and more each game. Or, stop raising the cap, but there are too many people who simply will not accept that answer. Or they can jack up ticket prices, but none of us want that, either.

Regardless, TD has to do one of the four to ensure the average value of a ticket’s worth of loot is always less than the price of the ticket. It is not hyperbole to say that just leaving the mix the same as more URTEs are released would eventually kill TD altogether.

Whatever TD decides to do will tick off one group of players or another, but they have to do something.


I don’t think you can skip the dungeon and go straight to the epilogue room, so I think at best a group can get a set of pulls every 2 hours.

Next with the price of tickets going up at a higher pace than treasure pulls I don’t think we need to worry about pulls being profitable any time soon. A player may have good enough pulls to make a con profitable, but on average most of us loses money on runs.

Runs are now $68 at cons other than gencon and $80 at gencon. So statistically I’ll lose money on most run just not a lot. Then there is hotel cost, parking, food, and badge for the con. We are a long way from making money on this.

TEs give the game replay ability by effectively lowering cost.

I think ghosting is fine because TD still gets the money and no one gets exploited IMO.

I feel if someone wants to play on a run with me using one of my ticket intended for a ghost (not paying me anything for the ticket) and me keeping the loot with that understanding before the run, then that’s ok.

The only thing I’m in favor of changing is eliminating players loaning out TEs to players and asking for half the loot back in return. Note that I’m talking about players that payed for there own ticket being the one being asked to give half the loot to the person loaning the TEs. That’s the only way I see doing runs profitable and I also think it’s exploitation of new players.

Everything else seems within the spirit of the way TEs were intended when first produced.


I completely agree that we shouldn't ask for a cut for loaning out TEs. When I loan them out whatever people get is theirs. It doesn't feel comfortable otherwise - just a shady feel to it.

Fred


Of course, the impact to TD of loaning out TE tokens is the same whether the person loaning them gets a cut or not, TD is still out the same number of tokens.

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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #119

Mike Steele wrote:

Fred K wrote:

Wayne Rhodes wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote: Let’s put it this way. Nothing stops your party from getting your party card, telling your coach you have nothing but TEs to record, then waltzing straight to the epilogue desk to collect your loot. A well oiled party of five farmers could probably pull that three to five times AN HOUR. (At least until they figure out how to stop it, and then it will just get abused some other way.) If the day ever comes when you knew that the average value of your treasure would equal or exceed the cost of the ticket, TD is dead. Farmers would snap up all the tickets and newbies and casual players would be frozen out. Without new players, the community stagnates and dies. The end.

So that is why we either have to cap the treasure or dilute the loot as people are able to draw more and more each game. Or, stop raising the cap, but there are too many people who simply will not accept that answer. Or they can jack up ticket prices, but none of us want that, either.

Regardless, TD has to do one of the four to ensure the average value of a ticket’s worth of loot is always less than the price of the ticket. It is not hyperbole to say that just leaving the mix the same as more URTEs are released would eventually kill TD altogether.

Whatever TD decides to do will tick off one group of players or another, but they have to do something.


I don’t think you can skip the dungeon and go straight to the epilogue room, so I think at best a group can get a set of pulls every 2 hours.

Next with the price of tickets going up at a higher pace than treasure pulls I don’t think we need to worry about pulls being profitable any time soon. A player may have good enough pulls to make a con profitable, but on average most of us loses money on runs.

Runs are now $68 at cons other than gencon and $80 at gencon. So statistically I’ll lose money on most run just not a lot. Then there is hotel cost, parking, food, and badge for the con. We are a long way from making money on this.

TEs give the game replay ability by effectively lowering cost.

I think ghosting is fine because TD still gets the money and no one gets exploited IMO.

I feel if someone wants to play on a run with me using one of my ticket intended for a ghost (not paying me anything for the ticket) and me keeping the loot with that understanding before the run, then that’s ok.

The only thing I’m in favor of changing is eliminating players loaning out TEs to players and asking for half the loot back in return. Note that I’m talking about players that payed for there own ticket being the one being asked to give half the loot to the person loaning the TEs. That’s the only way I see doing runs profitable and I also think it’s exploitation of new players.

Everything else seems within the spirit of the way TEs were intended when first produced.


I completely agree that we shouldn't ask for a cut for loaning out TEs. When I loan them out whatever people get is theirs. It doesn't feel comfortable otherwise - just a shady feel to it.

Fred


Of course, the impact to TD of loaning out TE tokens is the same whether the person loaning them gets a cut or not, TD is still out the same number of tokens.


While true, I have argued that I should get all the benefits of tickets I have paid for and TEs I have paid for. Loaning tokens feels ok, asking for something in return feel exploitive.
Also if I did this practice that I’m against say I pay for 1 $68 ticket at pax south on all new player run, loan out 9 CoA, 9 ISSN, 9 ISGN, ask for half in return Giving me 84 pulls for $68 if we round down.
That is the only way I can see to turn a profit on runs currently and it feels very dirty to me. I’ve seen it, don’t know the players names, but I really don’t like it.

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Treasure Inflation 2 months 1 week ago #120

Wayne Rhodes wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Fred K wrote:

Wayne Rhodes wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote: Let’s put it this way. Nothing stops your party from getting your party card, telling your coach you have nothing but TEs to record, then waltzing straight to the epilogue desk to collect your loot. A well oiled party of five farmers could probably pull that three to five times AN HOUR. (At least until they figure out how to stop it, and then it will just get abused some other way.) If the day ever comes when you knew that the average value of your treasure would equal or exceed the cost of the ticket, TD is dead. Farmers would snap up all the tickets and newbies and casual players would be frozen out. Without new players, the community stagnates and dies. The end.

So that is why we either have to cap the treasure or dilute the loot as people are able to draw more and more each game. Or, stop raising the cap, but there are too many people who simply will not accept that answer. Or they can jack up ticket prices, but none of us want that, either.

Regardless, TD has to do one of the four to ensure the average value of a ticket’s worth of loot is always less than the price of the ticket. It is not hyperbole to say that just leaving the mix the same as more URTEs are released would eventually kill TD altogether.

Whatever TD decides to do will tick off one group of players or another, but they have to do something.


I don’t think you can skip the dungeon and go straight to the epilogue room, so I think at best a group can get a set of pulls every 2 hours.

Next with the price of tickets going up at a higher pace than treasure pulls I don’t think we need to worry about pulls being profitable any time soon. A player may have good enough pulls to make a con profitable, but on average most of us loses money on runs.

Runs are now $68 at cons other than gencon and $80 at gencon. So statistically I’ll lose money on most run just not a lot. Then there is hotel cost, parking, food, and badge for the con. We are a long way from making money on this.

TEs give the game replay ability by effectively lowering cost.

I think ghosting is fine because TD still gets the money and no one gets exploited IMO.

I feel if someone wants to play on a run with me using one of my ticket intended for a ghost (not paying me anything for the ticket) and me keeping the loot with that understanding before the run, then that’s ok.

The only thing I’m in favor of changing is eliminating players loaning out TEs to players and asking for half the loot back in return. Note that I’m talking about players that payed for there own ticket being the one being asked to give half the loot to the person loaning the TEs. That’s the only way I see doing runs profitable and I also think it’s exploitation of new players.

Everything else seems within the spirit of the way TEs were intended when first produced.


I completely agree that we shouldn't ask for a cut for loaning out TEs. When I loan them out whatever people get is theirs. It doesn't feel comfortable otherwise - just a shady feel to it.

Fred


Of course, the impact to TD of loaning out TE tokens is the same whether the person loaning them gets a cut or not, TD is still out the same number of tokens.


While true, I have argued that I should get all the benefits of tickets I have paid for and TEs I have paid for. Loaning tokens feels ok, asking for something in return feel exploitive.
Also if I did this practice that I’m against say I pay for 1 $68 ticket at pax south on all new player run, loan out 9 CoA, 9 ISSN, 9 ISGN, ask for half in return Giving me 84 pulls for $68 if we round down.
That is the only way I can see to turn a profit on runs currently and it feels very dirty to me. I’ve seen it, don’t know the players names, but I really don’t like it.


I have been loaned a CoA once and he asked for nothing in return but I honestly wouldn’t have had an issue if he asked for 5 of the treasure draws from it. Both parties make out on the low end I would have gotten 6 draws, why would I be mad at someone saying “hey do you want 6 extra treasure draws?” It’s a win win IMO
If someone wanted to try and profit from the run and buy a single ticket with hopes of loaning out the 9 other TEs I still think that’s too much of a gamble. So I don’t see anyone trying to do it but I would agree that going in with this intent would be shady it would still be beneficial to the 9 other people

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