TOPIC: Monster Trophies at Origins - Can we get an official response before Gen Con?

jedibcg wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: This is also not the first time something like this has happened - a few years back - maybe 2015? There was an announced proposed mix. It had monster bits at some percentage.

Then, at the cons according to our tracking spreadheets, it seems the monster bit percentage was considerably lower (I'm talking like a 10% difference).

I think it's wise to temper any expectations about what the mix should be.

i will look but i don’t recall that. nice that we still have the data to look.

I don't have a spreadsheet that goes back further that 2016 so I don't we were tracking back in 2015. That said I compared the data we have for all the cons and within each season the difference for Monster Bits between cons NEVER varies more than 5% (I think it was 3% but I don't have them up any more). Just wanted to clear that up. Though I may have misunderstood what you were saying.

Rob F wrote: And remember, Jeff did say that he ordered the same number of bits as last year so as long as all treasure gets drawn the bits will be out in the market, just might have to hunt a bit more.

That depends.

If he ordered the same number of each trophy, then yes.

If he ordered the same number of total trophies, then 2019 becomes the limiting factor, and the pool will only support 2/3 the Beads that the other three years do.

And it doesn’t change the fact you have to run three times the runs to collect the same number of sets, because arithmetic.

This reminds me a bit of 2012, the last year of the Draco Lich Claw Charm cycle. At GENCON, players could choose to draw from a treasure box that had monster bits or a treasure box that had an unusually high UR count. Most people choose the URs and this in turn made the last 4 monster bits needed to transmute the Draco Lich Claw Charm relatively scarce. Those bits doubled in price (or more) as people scrambled to complete the Charm. It was indeed and epic quest!

I first wanted to chime in as well and thank Jeff for his candor on this topic. It was a very classy move that highlights his character, and commitment to the player base

Not sure if this idea has been explored yet, but a very simple way to fix this without any sort of "cosmic rewind" would be to run the 2019 monster bits again in 2020 at the same average draw rate of 2019. The end result would be the apropriate amount of intended circulated bits. It would take time but it would be a low impact course correct that took iinto consideration player dedication to a 4 year "best in slot" item side quest.

At that point running 2020 monster bits could be an option as well (pethaps at the same rate as the 2019 to attempt to keep total bits consistant with past year percentages)

David Harris wrote: This reminds me a bit of 2012, the last year of the Draco Lich Claw Charm cycle. At GENCON, players could choose to draw from a treasure box that had monster bits or a treasure box that had an unusually high UR count. Most people choose the URs and this in turn made the last 4 monster bits needed to transmute the Draco Lich Claw Charm relatively scarce. Those bits doubled in price (or more) as people scrambled to complete the Charm. It was indeed and epic quest!

That was 2013. The start of the new cycle. Most people missed monster bits because they were greedy.

First, I want to echo all the appreciation for Jeff explaining the situation.

Second, i see some interesting solutions, but I don’t personally see a problem. That's just my opinion, I'm sure others feel differently.

Yes, it was assumed we'd have a similar mix of MB this year. Things happened and that's not the case. We'll adapt. So MB will be harder to come by and may cost more. For a relic level item the bead is still going to be cheap, just not as cheap as people hoped.

Anyway, that's my opinion and I'm fine with how things are. The worst case is that I won't be able to make a bead for each of my friends. They'll live and I really don't expect any of them to be upset.

Dave wrote: For a relic level item the bead is still going to be cheap, just not as cheap as people hoped.

It’ll be very expensive for a UR, which is what I think it is, power-wise, navy-blue token notwithstanding. (See Topaz Trilliant) YMMV

But I agree, I’m glad Jeff cleared things up, and I also agree there’s nothing to do about it now. And, I agree that I just won’t make so many and I agree people will deal. So, four out of five isn’t bad.

David Harris wrote: This reminds me a bit of 2012, the last year of the Draco Lich Claw Charm cycle. At GENCON, players could choose to draw from a treasure box that had monster bits or a treasure box that had an unusually high UR count. Most people choose the URs and this in turn made the last 4 monster bits needed to transmute the Draco Lich Claw Charm relatively scarce. Those bits doubled in price (or more) as people scrambled to complete the Charm. It was indeed and epic quest!

I just mulched 8 sets of 2012 monster bits!

I feel the need to express my disappointment in this.

A lot of people are posting that they will accept this and are happy that we got an explanation. I respect that.

I also think it's important for Jeff to know that there will be a lot of mid-range players to casual players that will be upset at having the expectations and the odds change in the last year of a multi-year cycle. I've been saving bits for three years like everyone else, and with what I can afford in time and money I felt that it was worth putting in the effort to collect what I needed to make this transmute. Now I'm worried that I won't pull what I need, and all that time will have been for nothing. Disagree if you like, but that's the feeling this creates for many people.

While I realize that this was a mistake and was not intended, it would feel a lot better if Jeff could find a way to correct for this.

As it stands this is making me reconsider whether I get enough enjoyment from the game and the token chase to keep spending the same amount of money.

I still enjoy playing, but the treasure chase and the transmute chase may have gone out of reach for me. It might be time to accept that the token side of True Dungeon is just too expensive for me.

Hopefully I'll be able to finish my Bead, to complete the four year journey. I don't know that I will bother with the next one.

No sense in complaining until after pax. There are plenty of people and cons before the E series is done.
So wait and see what happens before you want an alternative
When I get to a computer I will give some great alternative things players can try to trade with new players
It won’t break the bank

bring any extra bits from last year
then add some GP or trade goods (depending how many the new group pulled)
this way, they can go transmute for something cool. They are happy (and learn transmuting)
you get the bits you need

For the love of TD, please don't rip them off. IE trade their complete set of 2019 bits for canteen...that is wrong

I'm glad Jeff was direct about what the reality was in the mix of monster bits in treasure. Really, any change now would be unfair to the people who did a ton of runs at Origins to finish the set out.

With that said, the secondary market for the bead and golden fleece doesn't seem to reflect this problem. Monster bits normally sell at $10-$15 per bit. This transmute requires 18 bits (correct me if I'm wrong) plus a bead of firehold (say that is $1 each). A fully transmuted bead is currently running $175 to $200 - less than if you bought the monster bits individually and did the transmute (likely costing $225-$250 per). It's even less than paying for the runs at max treasure and doing the transmute (assuming 2 bits per run = 9 runs = $400+ (yes, you do get other stuff as well as just enjoying the game)). The general community can just buy a fully transmuted bead for far less effort and expense than making it themselves.

I did 4 golden fleece transmutes at Origins and am kicking myself a bit for it. Using this same set of metrics, golden fleece should cost in excess of $100 each but I've never seen it higher than $75.

The secondary market will likely make up problems in scarcity over the next 1-2 years since so many people did more than 1 bead with plans to sell them. A few years from now, they may jump up quite a bit in price but for players today, this helps offset the scarcity problem.

Fred