TOPIC: Monster Trophies at Origins - Can we get an official response before Gen Con?

Druegar wrote: Dathum, you should read Jeff's whole post, as referenced by jedibcg, but here's a clip:

Jeff Martin wrote: Please remember I want these Relic/Legendary tokens to be a mini-quest within the game for the player. Except for some rare players, most players won't come "naturally" to all the necessary ingredients. I want them to have to search out, trade, and acquire these items--and feel a sense of accomplishment when they transmute their new awesome token.

The ship has sailed on how many monster trophies we have this year. I'm sorry if that's a bitter pill to swallow, but it is what it is. All I can suggest at this point is to take an active part in the token creation and recipe tweaking for the 2020 print run when that process happens later this year.

The main point is not the number of monster bits but the scarcity.

There is always a need to balance the power of a token with its cost. That is why legendary tokens are more powerful than their relic counterparts. Legendary tokens also cost more to make.

Most people have a pretty good idea of the going rate of existing tokens. I would bet most people on the bead recipe input expected the monster bits to be inline with 2016/2017/2018 percentages.

So how do you balance the power and cost of a transmute token when you don't know one of the input costs? In this case, the scarcity of the 2019 monster bits.

You can't.

No amount of discussion or active participation is going to change that. We cannot see into the future.

The fix is very simple. No recipes should include a future token unless its scarcity is known (Ex. UR/PYP).

Rob F wrote: Well I wouldn't call announcing treasure pulls a "rule". Was the exact percentage of the mix announced in the past? I don't remember TD giving exact percentages but my memory sucks so I could be wrong. Plus Jeff did say the monster bit mix wouldn't change and maybe it hasn't? I never keep track of any of my pulls and maybe this pull spreadsheet does not have a large enough sampling size to be statistically significant. But I don't think there's any way to know that unless we know total pulls. Even if the mix is announced someone's pulls still may not hit the average and be on the low side of what they expected. So to me, if anyone is expecting to get a certain number of a certain number of Tokens they'll always have a good chance of being disappointed. And if TD has announced any percentages in the past I think they should stop. Treasure is supposed to be a surprise IMO.

There has been at least 1 year that Jeff announced what the exact percentages were. Granted we haven't been on those percentages for for awhile. I don't know that anyone complained. Jeff explicitly stated that he was not changing the monster bits percentages till 2020. Even though per the data they have increase each year slightly for the last few. Last year there were a bit above 20% this year for Origins only they are at just over 10%. Last at Origins we drew 1819 total tokens at Origins on the spreadsheet, this was enough to predict the treasure monster bits (22.54% Origins vs 22.58% for the entire season). Currently there are 3923 total draws from Origins. If it is the same mix for all the cons (and maybe it isn't), I feel very confident that it is enough to predict what was in the mix. Someone much smarter than I can tell how realiable 3923 draws on various total draw sizes is. I feel 95% confident it predicts the total Origins mix. If Jeff said that 3923 draws was just bad draws and the mix was 15% at Origins I would accept that we have bad data (unlucky pulls), but without any evidence counter to that 10% mix at Origins seems accurate.

Again not looking for him to fix anything. If it is 10% it is 10%. If it only 10% at Origins then it is only 10% at Origins. Having this data for all is the best way to make sure no one is taken advantage of.

If everyone from Origins was quite about the 10% and were trading for at the past rarity with those that didn't know they were rarer I feel it would not be fair.

If you don't want to know the treasure mix you don't have to know. If you like it being a secret you don't have to follow any discussions about it. Personally I want to know if I am going to be paying $5 for a 2019 Monster Bit or $25.

jedibcg wrote: Personally I want to know if I am going to be paying $5 for a 2019 Monster Bit or $25.

Like it or not, TD has created an economy around the game. That has resulted in a market around trading tokens. People trust markets when there’s transparency. If they don’t trust the market, they stay away.

The NYSE doesn’t keep secrets about how many shares are available or trading hands at what prices. Don’t you want to be surprised about how AAPL did last year before you buy shares? But they insist on publishing earnings and whatnot to take all the fun and mystery out of investing...

And yes, sitting on a few dozen bits for years is “investing.” Next year, the new mix won’t be a problem because it’ll be year one of the new cycle. Telling people they just need to buy triple the tickets this year to finish the Beads they’ve been saving up to do for the last three years - at best it feels like bait-and-switch, and at worst it feels like betrayal.

And it all seems to be based on a single metric - the price of Fleece - without thinking through all the ramifications.

I know it’s not personal, but it’s just one more Gotterdammerung thing.

Sorry, adulting is hard.

But after 300 pulls, I’m not buying another bit at any price

You do 16 runs,
Whaddya get?
48 uncommons but no monster bits yet
Odin don't ya call me cause I can't go,
I owe my soul to the True Dungeon Store


(this is not a complaining post - I sang this during a run, and thought it was appropriate to this thread)

jpotter wrote: You do 16 runs,
Whaddya get?
48 uncommons but no monster bits yet
Odin don't ya call me cause I can't go,
I owe my soul to the True Dungeon Store


(this is not a complaining post - I sang this during a run, and thought it was appropriate to this thread)

I sang Baby Shark

I saw some 20 bags opened. I saw one that had 10 monster bits. so that is 50%.
I saw a few others that seemed high(not 10 high)

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: I saw some 20 bags opened. I saw one that had 10 monster bits. so that is 50%.
I saw a few others that seemed high(not 10 high)

I had one with zero

my last 2 20's had 1 each.

Brad Mortensen wrote:

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: I saw some 20 bags opened. I saw one that had 10 monster bits. so that is 50%.
I saw a few others that seemed high(not 10 high)

I had one with zero

had quite a few with zero

I opened 1 50 count bag and had 0 MB
Pulled 32 tokens from treasure box and had 4 MB
Opened 10 - 20 count bags
1 had 4 MB
2 had 3 MB
2 had 2 MB
3 had 1 MB
2 had 0 MB

Thanks for giving me a good platform to talk about this.

I had no plans to make the Monster Bits less frequent this year. In fact, I ordered the same number as last time. However, what I screwed up was the fact that we were making a LOT more random treasure in 2019, and I should have increased the number of Monster Bits...instead of ordering the same. So, either fortunately or unfortunately (depending on the camp you are in) there is a smaller percentage of Monster Bits in the random treasure. The rates you saw at Origins will be the same at all other Cons in the 2019 season.

Thanks for jumping in with an answer Jeff!

While it may not be the answer we were hoping for, it does give us what were were looking for, information to use going forward.

Now, if only you could give us some information on these relic recipe fragments......


EDIT: If anyone is planning to make fleece from 2019 bits, please PM me first