TOPIC: Monster Trophies at Origins - Can we get an official response before Gen Con?

Justice wrote: I can understand everyone’s stances on the subject but I +1 Laz’s point that we just need to come together. There is still much of the 2019 season left and a small sample size of a small sample size of data recorded.

Remember for those that may have pulled poorly there are others who may have pulled great. Use our community and it’s reach and put it to good use.

I have made my beads for the year and will still be going to gencon and GHC. I’m looking to be part of the solution instead of adding to the pandemonium people can feel free to look me up.

I agree. I also agree with the prior post of making sure value is commensurate. I could see giving someone a full set of rares (all slots) for a monster bit. If anything, I’ve gone on the other side of trading items new players don’t want for low value URs or 3 point relics like the whetstone, etc..

isauteikisa wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: 1. You said this will "lower the amount of monster bit tokens drawn from treasure this year". It depends on what you mean by "amount." If you mean "the percentage" then that is correct.

However TD explicitly said they have the same number of bits this year as last year. The total number of bits in circulation should be about the same.

This is not a commentary on whether the changing percentage is good or bad, just attempting to clarify that the total number of monster bits drawn by all players should be about the same as last year.

That only works under the assumption that the entire 2019 treasure pool will be drawn eventually - that's not necessarily a safe assumption to make.

No more or less safe than assuming the entire 2018 pool was drawn.

Justice wrote: I can understand everyone’s stances on the subject but I +1 Laz’s point that we just need to come together. There is still much of the 2019 season left and a small sample size of a small sample size of data recorded.

Using www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm calculator, and using the data JediBC has collected (sample size 3923, 10.15% bits, and assuming the loot was mixed thoroughly) there is a 99% confidence that the actual bit probability is 10.15 + or - 1.22%. I think that’s enough data to make a decision.

And the longer we wait, the harder it will be and the more people will be affected. Saying “let’s wait” is the same as saying “let’s do nothing,” IMO

Bad news doesn’t get better with time, as Shelly likes to say.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

isauteikisa wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: 1. You said this will "lower the amount of monster bit tokens drawn from treasure this year". It depends on what you mean by "amount." If you mean "the percentage" then that is correct.

However TD explicitly said they have the same number of bits this year as last year. The total number of bits in circulation should be about the same.

This is not a commentary on whether the changing percentage is good or bad, just attempting to clarify that the total number of monster bits drawn by all players should be about the same as last year.

That only works under the assumption that the entire 2019 treasure pool will be drawn eventually - that's not necessarily a safe assumption to make.

No more or less safe than assuming the entire 2018 pool was drawn.

When I left Origins there was still 2018 treasure. I had a lot of 2018 pulls I waited to use and used them there. Henwy was still dumping buckets full of 2018 treasure into the boxes. I wonder what happens to the left over treasure?

Rob F wrote: I wonder what happens to the left over treasure?

The stuff that won’t go out of date might get pulled out, but the rest goes to the landfill

There are 3 of the 2019 bits on eBay, listed by a greedy person. Asking $40 each Buy-It-Now.

I wonder if they will sell at that price?

Dave Autzen wrote: There are 3 of the 2019 bits on eBay, listed by a greedy person. Asking $40 each Buy-It-Now.

I wonder if they will sell at that price?

I honestly don't see that as greedy when I think the market right now is that high for them. As it currently stands, 2019 bits are very hot. If they are overpriced they won't sell. I'm betting they sell. And more power to the seller. If I was smart I'd sell mine at $40 apiece and buy a bead with money left over.

$40 seems like a lot to me as well, but...supply and demand. Less bits in the market right now coupled with their higher scarcity in the treasure box results in a higher price and people wanting it "now". Plus, it's just the first Con. If you wait until after GenCon there will be more in the market flowing around and prices will drop somewhat. Just don't wait too long to pick them up before the bigger collectors start gathering them up to make their 30 beads.

If the 2019 monster tokens do end up being the limiting factor for the beads, and it certainly seems like they will be, then I expect they'll retain a high value. I'm not sure if it will be $40, Chad was correct when he said the first ones to go on sale often go for the highest prices, and they tend to settle down after that.

I think I set mine for $40/ea, so I may be a contributing factor. But that is intentionally on the high side because I have no idea what to price them at. The downside to being a popular shopping site for buying and pricing tokens is if I list something at too low of a price they will sell out in as little as an hour. So in this case I think it's prudent to error on the high side.

As a point of interest I have sold zero at that price, even with some customers getting up to 11% off through the rewards program. So I think that puts the current market price solidly below $35ea.

My eBay auction has a complete set of 6. It’s at 90$ so 15$ each

Also, its Ebay, so people are probably waiting to snipe.

I think that bits will end up going for about 20 to 25 apiece

I also dont think a lot of people check the forums and know what they can buy a completed bead for here.