TOPIC: Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity

Brad Mortensen wrote: I think there’s a good chance it will be the 2019s. You’ll need 50% more of them, and we don’t even know what transmutes will be competing for them yet.

That’s why I chose to dump some of my older ones, I’m not even going to try to make as many beads as I’d planned.

I was one of the beneficiaries of Brad's monster bit purge. Very thankful that you got me started on the multi-year bit transmute when I had no idea what I was doing / was just barely buying my first URTE.

Arnold wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote: I think there’s a good chance it will be the 2019s. You’ll need 50% more of them, and we don’t even know what transmutes will be competing for them yet.

That’s why I chose to dump some of my older ones, I’m not even going to try to make as many beads as I’d planned.

I was one of the beneficiaries of Brad's monster bit purge. Very thankful that you got me started on the multi-year bit transmute when I had no idea what I was doing / was just barely buying my first URTE.

I’m glad you listened, for your sake

And just think, in 2020 we get to start all over again!

Wade Schwendemann wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Rob F wrote: I have all the sets I need to make what I want to make plus extra. And I'm guessing I'll have enough 2019 sets as well. I think there's going to be a lot of these Beads out on the market. Time will tell.

I agree with Rob on this. I think initially they will be like icecrag. You will be tripping over them. They will be pulled out of the boxes like crazy. Then over time they will start to dry up.

I think they will be crafted everywhere. I do not think they will be in the boxes like Icecrag were. The mix is different, and the bead is still a relic. I dont expect to see substantially more beads than other relics. I would expect them to remain at the same level as the other relic tokens.

I have no secret insight, it's just what I expect.

I'm also thinking there won't be as many in the box. I think Jeff overestimated how many Icecrag would be transmuted, because so many people used the special treasure boxes in 2013 that didn't have monster tokens in them, so the extras went in the treasure boxes. If anything, I think the amount of Beads transmuted might be underestimated and they might run out until more could be printed.

I do agree there will likely be a LOT of beads transmuted. That might tempt me to do more Golden Fleece for Kilts and less Beads (I'll still do 10 for the group, plus at least 5 or so extras).

Let's hope he doesn't run out of Beads. No doubt there will be an absolute ton transmuted.

My guild is going to make 10 beads. We only recently got UR TEs and a couple of CoAs—we’re certainly not at max treasure. We had plenty of 2018 bits (going to multiple cons really helped), most of the 2017s, and a few of the 2016s. We did a decent amount of buying right after the relic recipe was announced to top off the 2016 and 2017 bits. We’ve got enough 2018 bits left to make GF for the kilts and class-specific relics, but that’s about it. The first 60 2019 monster bits we get are going straight into the beads (assuming we can make trades for even distribution). After that, we’ll be saving up for more GF and whatever 2020 3- and 4-point transmutes look useful. My guess is that we’ll get enough 2019 bits for our needs among Origins, GenCon, and GHC, but I doubt we’ll be swimming in extras, especially because not all 10 of us can make it to every con.

8 max for my group, though realistically that number may dip as low as 4 depending of draws this year. There are 6 of us, 3 who care and 3 who are long for the ride.

Brad Mortensen wrote: You’re not accounting for increased demand from new players and older newbies moving up the collector ladder.

"Older newbies moving up the collector ladder" describes our guild perfectly. (None of us have an old Level 7 badge holder, but some of us will get the new one this season, with a few folks not far behind.)

Only thing I don't like about this transmute is that it's the Bead slot. Jeff just added this slot a few years ago and now we'll probably have slot lock for a while. Kind of the same with the Eldritch Kilt but I think we had another year or so of pants slot. Not a fan of BIS Tokens popping up right out of the gate in new slots. But that's just me.

Rob F wrote: Only thing I don't like about this transmute is that it's the Bead slot. Jeff just added this slot a few years ago and now we'll probably have slot lock for a while. Kind of the same with the Eldritch Kilt but I think we had another year or so of pants slot. Not a fan of BIS Tokens popping up right out of the gate in new slots. But that's just me.

Or - everyone might transmute tons of Beads, and in a year or two a new Bead will make this obsolete. It won't be hard to do a new bead that beats +2 saves and Free Movement. Just making a +2 Bead of Focus would do that for many spellcasters.

Rob F wrote: Only thing I don't like about this transmute is that it's the Bead slot. Jeff just added this slot a few years ago and now we'll probably have slot lock for a while. Kind of the same with the Eldritch Kilt but I think we had another year or so of pants slot. Not a fan of BIS Tokens popping up right out of the gate in new slots. But that's just me.

I was having the same thoughts...

Jeff has previously spoken about (as I recall) the possibility of being able to have more than one bead. Maybe that will get tied to INT, WIS, and/or CHA.

jedibcg wrote: Jeff has previously spoken about (as I recall) the possibility of being able to have more than one bead. Maybe that will get tied to INT, WIS, and/or CHA.

Hmm... I thought I recalled him saying INT for tome slots and WIS for bead slots. But that may be my memory playing tricks.