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TOPIC: Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls

Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #97

The clear bags weren't tamper proof like the felt ones that were zip tied. Not saying tampering occurred, however it seems possible based on how bad everyone is saying the contents of the clear bags were.

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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #98

Steve wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

jedibcg wrote: I have said it before and I will say it again the 50 bags are from the same mix. At least 900 maybe 950 of my pulls were from the bags both blue and clear. I spoke to Chandler who made the 50 clear bags. They were 50 tokens from the mix. He didn't look what went in them but did notice lots of colors. I pulled the first 2 clear bags (arpund 130pm) and last 3 on Saturday (around 6pm not certain if they made more). If it seems the box was hotter it is a perception. If someone pulls 3 to 19 from the box and gets something good you will hear about it. You don't hear from everyone that that doesn't an UR or better from there 3 to 19 pulls. You do hear about bad 50 bags.


My 50 bag results were far worse than any of the results I've seen on the spreadsheet so far (although I haven't looked today). Out of 700 tokens from 14 bags, I got no Relics or higher tokens, and only one UR. I plan on getting all my tokens in the future from the treasure boxes.


Between mike and myself we account for 33 of the 50 clear bags, and to get a single UR (or higher) out of 1650 pulls is ridiculously low. I'm 100% prepared to believe that they came from the same mix, but as I have been personally privy to treasure-box shenanigans from volunteers in the past (in this instance they would 'look in the box to see what is in there' and move any high value over to a corner for their kid/partner to draw from ; yes .. it was already reported .. no .. they don't volunteer anymore.) I'm more inclined to believe that it would be easier to have something like that happen ..

I think one UR , and nothing higher in 1650 pulls is low.


Let's Math!

First off, Mike - was 14 bags all your bags, or did you have 1 or 2 good bags and 14 bad ones?

Let's assume there were 33 clear bags which between them had only 1 ur or better.

Let's assume the average rate of >= URs in the mix is as implied from Jedi's sheet: 0.64%.

Odds of drawing 1650 tokens and getting exactly 0 UR or better: 0.9936^1650 ~= 1/40,000

Odds of drawing 1650 tokens and getting exactly 1 UR or better: 1650*0.0064*0.9936^1649 ~= 1/3750

Therefore the odds of getting 1 or fewer URs with a uniform random distribution are ~= 1/3,430.

This is unlikely. It's unlikely enough that if you were publishing a scientific paper on the hypothesis that "The mix was different" you'd get published :).

But it's not so unlikely that it absolutely couldn't have happened.

For myself, I got 2 clear bags and found 1 UR in one.

If we add in my 2 bags for 35 total and look at the odds of getting 2 or fewer URs it becomes 1/1000.

Anyone else have bags they care to add to the mix?


By the way, I empathize, last year I had ~400 draws and got 1 UR and 1 Relic (Ice Crag Hero Earcuff). I estimated my average draw to be worth around 2.50, with the average overall draw around 4.50.

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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #99

I added a tab at the end with some guesstimates as to the average value of tokens at various rarities, and the overall average value of a pull this year, which I put around $3.14 from the sheet.

It's not synced with the main sheet, so it won't stay up to date - but I saw someone asking about it so I put together something quick.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1g1lb5GgfnL0xW5IzZV9VUvsJCzvPU9endLbWoIfmZvI/edit#gid=1996682456

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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #100

mike coon wrote: I had one sealed felt bag, and one sealed clear bag.

In the non clear bag, I had a UR, Relic Robes, Belt of Constitution, ring of the hallowed, and the shin guards.
24 Rares, 14 uncommons, 7 monster bits

In the clear bag, I had a belt of constitution.... that is it....
21 rares, 12 uncommon and 16 monster bits...

If we are going to have clear bags in the future, we just need the volunteer to pull them out by handfuls in front of the player until 50 are in the bag. It will slow down the procedure at token grabbing, but the mixes in the clear bags from what I heard later were really bad... So that makes me think that something fishy may have been going on...

I for one will never have an issue getting a sealed felt bag, but I don't think I will ever get the sealed clear bags again.


To be fair, you had pretty good luck in the non-clear bag.

Odds of getting a UR or better appear to be around 1/180.

Odds of getting 2 such things in 50 tries are not great - worse than 1/10.


Your outcome on your two bags is about twice as good as you could have expected.

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Last edit: by Matthew Hayward.

Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #101

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Steve wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

jedibcg wrote: I have said it before and I will say it again the 50 bags are from the same mix. At least 900 maybe 950 of my pulls were from the bags both blue and clear. I spoke to Chandler who made the 50 clear bags. They were 50 tokens from the mix. He didn't look what went in them but did notice lots of colors. I pulled the first 2 clear bags (arpund 130pm) and last 3 on Saturday (around 6pm not certain if they made more). If it seems the box was hotter it is a perception. If someone pulls 3 to 19 from the box and gets something good you will hear about it. You don't hear from everyone that that doesn't an UR or better from there 3 to 19 pulls. You do hear about bad 50 bags.


My 50 bag results were far worse than any of the results I've seen on the spreadsheet so far (although I haven't looked today). Out of 700 tokens from 14 bags, I got no Relics or higher tokens, and only one UR. I plan on getting all my tokens in the future from the treasure boxes.


Between mike and myself we account for 33 of the 50 clear bags, and to get a single UR (or higher) out of 1650 pulls is ridiculously low. I'm 100% prepared to believe that they came from the same mix, but as I have been personally privy to treasure-box shenanigans from volunteers in the past (in this instance they would 'look in the box to see what is in there' and move any high value over to a corner for their kid/partner to draw from ; yes .. it was already reported .. no .. they don't volunteer anymore.) I'm more inclined to believe that it would be easier to have something like that happen ..

I think one UR , and nothing higher in 1650 pulls is low.


Let's Math!

First off, Mike - was 14 bags all your bags, or did you have 1 or 2 good bags and 14 bad ones?

Let's assume there were 33 clear bags which between them had only 1 ur or better.

Let's assume the average rate of >= URs in the mix is as implied from Jedi's sheet: 0.64%.

Odds of drawing 1650 tokens and getting exactly 0 UR or better: 0.9936^1650 ~= 1/40,000

Odds of drawing 1650 tokens and getting exactly 1 UR or better: 1650*0.0064*0.9936^1649 ~= 1/3750

Therefore the odds of getting 1 or fewer URs with a uniform random distribution are ~= 1/3,430.

This is unlikely. It's unlikely enough that if you were publishing a scientific paper on the hypothesis that "The mix was different" you'd get published :).

But it's not so unlikely that it absolutely couldn't have happened.

For myself, I got 2 clear bags and found 1 UR in one.

If we add in my 2 bags for 35 total and look at the odds of getting 2 or fewer URs it becomes 1/1000.

Anyone else have bags they care to add to the mix?


By the way, I empathize, last year I had ~400 draws and got 1 UR and 1 Relic (Ice Crag Hero Earcuff). I estimated my average draw to be worth around 2.50, with the average overall draw around 4.50.


I had no good bags. I had 14 total bags of tokens, all clear, and one UR total in them. I am wishing that I'd taken the time on Thursday or Friday to cash in for some of the felt bags before they were all gone. Lesson learned. :)

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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #102

I hasten to add, the conclusion here isn't "bags will always be worse" but that "treasure doesn't follow a uniform distribution."

Which I think we already know, based on anecdotal tales of folks at TDC pulling like 6 URs out of 15 pulls.

It's becoming increasingly clear to me that there are "hot spots" in the treasure, and that whatever physical procedure is used to mix the treasure doesn't create a uniform distribution.

Elsewhere on the forums someone was posting about getting a relic and a UR in the same bag.

So - by all means switch to the boxes next year.... with all likelyhood their roles will be reversed.

I think the only strategy here is either:

Wait till a box looks hot and then start drawing (hard to do with a line), or spread your draws over the con and over multiple sources to try to even out the highs and lows.

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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #103

I entered my pulls for the year - I seem to have about followed suit. Last year I had great luck pulling at the higher end of the misc. items - this year was back to normal levels.

I pulled one 50 bag (clear) - and that included 12 monster bits, my UR Shaed, and a trade item (alchemist ink). So I did better on that than my other pulls from the boxes where I pulled one trade item (dwarven steel), a Greaves and a Ring of the Hallowed.

Although I know one in my group had much better luck with the boxes - pulling 2 or 3 Rings of Greater Holly and another 3 or 4 Greaves on day one - then followed up with the Relic Robes later in the week.

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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #104

Matthew Hayward wrote: It's becoming increasingly clear to me that there are "hot spots" in the treasure, and that whatever physical procedure is used to mix the treasure doesn't create a uniform distribution.

And I will add there will never be a way to get a uniform distribution. It just doesn't happen in reality. Look out how galaxies are distributed - they recently found a gap so large between some galaxies it should be statistically impossible. It's just the way things work.

On another note the 50s entries I made were 1 bag of felt (came with 1 3-point enhanced item and a trade 1 item) and 1 plastic bag (had the 2 hallowed rings and 2 greaves). My overall value was $1.67 average for 50s and $1.15 average for pulls.

I need to find someone a lot luckier than me to do my pulling.

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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #105

Matthew Hayward wrote: I added a tab at the end with some guesstimates as to the average value of tokens at various rarities, and the overall average value of a pull this year, which I put around $3.14 from the sheet.

It's not synced with the main sheet, so it won't stay up to date - but I saw someone asking about it so I put together something quick.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1g1lb5GgfnL0xW5IzZV9VUvsJCzvPU9endLbWoIfmZvI/edit#gid=1996682456


Not meaning to derail the thread, but is $3 for ring of the hallowed accurate? I can see $8 for the new greaves, but the ring is far more rare; was that supposed to be $30?

Also, i dont have exact counts on my uncommon vs rare pulls, but i know my total and the specials i drew; should i add what i know and then split the remainder 50/50 for rares/UC?
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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #106

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Matthew Hayward wrote: I hasten to add, the conclusion here isn't "bags will always be worse" but that "treasure doesn't follow a uniform distribution."

I think the only strategy here is either:

Wait till a box looks hot and then start drawing (hard to do with a line), or spread your draws over the con and over multiple sources to try to even out the highs and lows.


The second one is my strategy. Although with volunteering full time and the compressed schedule, it's a bit harder to do as thoroughly as I have in the past.
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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #107

At some point it would be nice to see a direct comparison of the previous season to the current season on the spreadsheet. While overall percentages seem to be about the same I think the greater than or equal to an UR percent is down dramatically. This would probably lead to a lesser average value for a treasure chip and for treasure enhancers overall.

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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #108

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Matthew Hayward wrote:

Steve wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

jedibcg wrote: I have said it before and I will say it again the 50 bags are from the same mix. At least 900 maybe 950 of my pulls were from the bags both blue and clear. I spoke to Chandler who made the 50 clear bags. They were 50 tokens from the mix. He didn't look what went in them but did notice lots of colors. I pulled the first 2 clear bags (arpund 130pm) and last 3 on Saturday (around 6pm not certain if they made more). If it seems the box was hotter it is a perception. If someone pulls 3 to 19 from the box and gets something good you will hear about it. You don't hear from everyone that that doesn't an UR or better from there 3 to 19 pulls. You do hear about bad 50 bags.


My 50 bag results were far worse than any of the results I've seen on the spreadsheet so far (although I haven't looked today). Out of 700 tokens from 14 bags, I got no Relics or higher tokens, and only one UR. I plan on getting all my tokens in the future from the treasure boxes.


Between mike and myself we account for 33 of the 50 clear bags, and to get a single UR (or higher) out of 1650 pulls is ridiculously low. I'm 100% prepared to believe that they came from the same mix, but as I have been personally privy to treasure-box shenanigans from volunteers in the past (in this instance they would 'look in the box to see what is in there' and move any high value over to a corner for their kid/partner to draw from ; yes .. it was already reported .. no .. they don't volunteer anymore.) I'm more inclined to believe that it would be easier to have something like that happen ..

I think one UR , and nothing higher in 1650 pulls is low.


Let's Math!

First off, Mike - was 14 bags all your bags, or did you have 1 or 2 good bags and 14 bad ones?

Let's assume there were 33 clear bags which between them had only 1 ur or better.

Let's assume the average rate of >= URs in the mix is as implied from Jedi's sheet: 0.64%.

Odds of drawing 1650 tokens and getting exactly 0 UR or better: 0.9936^1650 ~= 1/40,000

Odds of drawing 1650 tokens and getting exactly 1 UR or better: 1650*0.0064*0.9936^1649 ~= 1/3750

Therefore the odds of getting 1 or fewer URs with a uniform random distribution are ~= 1/3,430.

This is unlikely. It's unlikely enough that if you were publishing a scientific paper on the hypothesis that "The mix was different" you'd get published :).

But it's not so unlikely that it absolutely couldn't have happened.

For myself, I got 2 clear bags and found 1 UR in one.

If we add in my 2 bags for 35 total and look at the odds of getting 2 or fewer URs it becomes 1/1000.

Anyone else have bags they care to add to the mix?


By the way, I empathize, last year I had ~400 draws and got 1 UR and 1 Relic (Ice Crag Hero Earcuff). I estimated my average draw to be worth around 2.50, with the average overall draw around 4.50.

Let's only use the data that supports that the clear bags were bad or tampered with. C'mon guys you cannot only use the 'bad' clear bags as a data points. I have said multiple times that my clear bags were on par with my blue bags. True I cannot only use my pulls to extrapolate all the clear, but others have said they got stuff out of the clear bags as well.

Lastly we don't know what Jeff thought of the Greaves and Ring. Most of us are counting them under a UR because their value is less than that, however since they are more limited in ways of obtaining them Jeff may have considered them more of a premium item.
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