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TOPIC: Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls

Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #73

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I would like to take a moment to thank everyone that has contributed. We have more folks than last year and more pulls than last year. I expected the later and hopeful for the former.
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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #74

Yeah some nice data here! I guess I win for highest Ring of the Hallowed % :P

Much less Relics, URs, and GP this year it seems. I like that you added the Other >= UR %. 1.65% last Gen Con vs 0.63% this.

Anyone feel like calculating the expected value of 1 pull?
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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #75

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Jeff321 wrote: Yeah some nice data here! I guess I win for highest Ring of the Hallowed % :P

Much less Relics, URs, and GP this year it seems. I like that you added the Other >= UR %. 1.65% last Gen Con vs 0.63% this.

Anyone feel like calculating the expected value of 1 pull?


I feel that is something Matthew usually does. I could not tell you the value of a dragon orb currently.


I (and I think others) felt last year the UR and greater was too heavy. This year it felt too light to me. I would like to go back to the 1%, but that is just my two cents. I would also like to see MB % drop a bit maybe below 15% but not much lower.
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Last edit: by jedibcg.

Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #76

jedibcg wrote: I have said it before and I will say it again the 50 bags are from the same mix. At least 900 maybe 950 of my pulls were from the bags both blue and clear. I spoke to Chandler who made the 50 clear bags. They were 50 tokens from the mix. He didn't look what went in them but did notice lots of colors. I pulled the first 2 clear bags (arpund 130pm) and last 3 on Saturday (around 6pm not certain if they made more). If it seems the box was hotter it is a perception. If someone pulls 3 to 19 from the box and gets something good you will hear about it. You don't hear from everyone that that doesn't an UR or better from there 3 to 19 pulls. You do hear about bad 50 bags.


My 50 bag results were far worse than any of the results I've seen on the spreadsheet so far (although I haven't looked today). Out of 700 tokens from 14 bags, I got no Relics or higher tokens, and only one UR. I plan on getting all my tokens in the future from the treasure boxes.

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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #77

Mike Steele wrote:

jedibcg wrote: I have said it before and I will say it again the 50 bags are from the same mix. At least 900 maybe 950 of my pulls were from the bags both blue and clear. I spoke to Chandler who made the 50 clear bags. They were 50 tokens from the mix. He didn't look what went in them but did notice lots of colors. I pulled the first 2 clear bags (arpund 130pm) and last 3 on Saturday (around 6pm not certain if they made more). If it seems the box was hotter it is a perception. If someone pulls 3 to 19 from the box and gets something good you will hear about it. You don't hear from everyone that that doesn't an UR or better from there 3 to 19 pulls. You do hear about bad 50 bags.


My 50 bag results were far worse than any of the results I've seen on the spreadsheet so far (although I haven't looked today). Out of 700 tokens from 14 bags, I got no Relics or higher tokens, and only one UR. I plan on getting all my tokens in the future from the treasure boxes.


Between mike and myself we account for 33 of the 50 clear bags, and to get a single UR (or higher) out of 1650 pulls is ridiculously low. I'm 100% prepared to believe that they came from the same mix, but as I have been personally privy to treasure-box shenanigans from volunteers in the past (in this instance they would 'look in the box to see what is in there' and move any high value over to a corner for their kid/partner to draw from ; yes .. it was already reported .. no .. they don't volunteer anymore.) I'm more inclined to believe that it would be easier to have something like that happen ..

I think one UR , and nothing higher in 1650 pulls is low.
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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #78

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Steve wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

jedibcg wrote: I have said it before and I will say it again the 50 bags are from the same mix. At least 900 maybe 950 of my pulls were from the bags both blue and clear. I spoke to Chandler who made the 50 clear bags. They were 50 tokens from the mix. He didn't look what went in them but did notice lots of colors. I pulled the first 2 clear bags (arpund 130pm) and last 3 on Saturday (around 6pm not certain if they made more). If it seems the box was hotter it is a perception. If someone pulls 3 to 19 from the box and gets something good you will hear about it. You don't hear from everyone that that doesn't an UR or better from there 3 to 19 pulls. You do hear about bad 50 bags.


My 50 bag results were far worse than any of the results I've seen on the spreadsheet so far (although I haven't looked today). Out of 700 tokens from 14 bags, I got no Relics or higher tokens, and only one UR. I plan on getting all my tokens in the future from the treasure boxes.


Between mike and myself we account for 33 of the 50 clear bags, and to get a single UR (or higher) out of 1650 pulls is ridiculously low. I'm 100% prepared to believe that they came from the same mix, but as I have been personally privy to treasure-box shenanigans from volunteers in the past (in this instance they would 'look in the box to see what is in there' and move any high value over to a corner for their kid/partner to draw from ; yes .. it was already reported .. no .. they don't volunteer anymore.) I'm more inclined to believe that it would be easier to have something like that happen ..

I think one UR , and nothing higher in 1650 pulls is low.


I might have missed where Mike said they were the clear bags. Chandler said he made the clear bags. I trust when he said he made them. I trust him when he said he just grabbed 50 tokens and put them in a bags without really looking at them. You have had multiple sources tell you the bags (both blue and clear) are from the same mix, but pull from the boxes if you feel they are better. It just means more bags for the rest of us.
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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #79

My sealed bags were all from the Saturday clear bags that Steve also got. I do believe that the tokens for the bags were pulled from the same source as the Treasure boxes. I do also agree with Steve that only one UR and nothing higher out of 1650 tokens is statistically unlikely given the distribution others got, although of course not statistically impossible.

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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #80

jedibcg wrote:

Joshua Baessler wrote:

jedibcg wrote: I have said it before and I will say it again the 50 bags are from the same mix. At least 900 maybe 950 of my pulls were from the bags both blue and clear. I spoke to Chandler who made the 50 clear bags. They were 50 tokens from the mix. He didn't look what went in them but did notice lots of colors. I pulled the first 2 clear bags (arpund 130pm) and last 3 on Saturday (around 6pm not certain if they made more). If it seems the box was hotter it is a perception. If someone pulls 3 to 19 from the box and gets something good you will hear about it. You don't hear from everyone that that doesn't an UR or better from there 3 to 19 pulls. You do hear about bad 50 bags.


The 50 bags and the boxes are all from the same mix.

However, the 50 bags are straight from bucket to bag, untouched, whereas the treasure boxes begin to skew after the first pull.

So 50 bags are always going to be the same chances, but the boxes will depend on everyone else's good or bad luck before you.



By that same logic though as soon as one bag is filled it skews the rest of the bags.


Not exactly. Bags have exactly the same odds but not content. Only two people ever touch the contents - the person filling and the person opening.

It's like the chances of getting a 00 in a ten pack are always the same because we don't know how many URs are out there.

Whereas when Golden Tickets are pulled, we know there are only 40 and so the odds change as they are pulled.

The moment the first person pulls from a treasure box we know what is no longer in it. The percentages change.

Yes, as additional bags are filled the odds change, but only if the contents are known. Normally 50 bags are in opaque bags so their contents are unknown. Therefore 50 bags should be treated as untouched base odds. Which some people like. Treasure boxes will always run "hot" or "cold" depending on what's been pulled out of them so far.

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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #81

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Joshua Baessler wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Joshua Baessler wrote:

jedibcg wrote: I have said it before and I will say it again the 50 bags are from the same mix. At least 900 maybe 950 of my pulls were from the bags both blue and clear. I spoke to Chandler who made the 50 clear bags. They were 50 tokens from the mix. He didn't look what went in them but did notice lots of colors. I pulled the first 2 clear bags (arpund 130pm) and last 3 on Saturday (around 6pm not certain if they made more). If it seems the box was hotter it is a perception. If someone pulls 3 to 19 from the box and gets something good you will hear about it. You don't hear from everyone that that doesn't an UR or better from there 3 to 19 pulls. You do hear about bad 50 bags.


The 50 bags and the boxes are all from the same mix.

However, the 50 bags are straight from bucket to bag, untouched, whereas the treasure boxes begin to skew after the first pull.

So 50 bags are always going to be the same chances, but the boxes will depend on everyone else's good or bad luck before you.



By that same logic though as soon as one bag is filled it skews the rest of the bags.


Not exactly. Bags have exactly the same odds but not content. Only two people ever touch the contents - the person filling and the person opening.

It's like the chances of getting a 00 in a ten pack are always the same because we don't know how many URs are out there.

Whereas when Golden Tickets are pulled, we know there are only 40 and so the odds change as they are pulled.

The moment the first person pulls from a treasure box we know what is no longer in it. The percentages change.

Yes, as additional bags are filled the odds change, but only if the contents are known. Normally 50 bags are in opaque bags so their contents are unknown. Therefore 50 bags should be treated as untouched base odds. Which some people like. Treasure boxes will always run "hot" or "cold" depending on what's been pulled out of them so far.


Right but as soon as someone fills a bag. The next bag will be hot or colder depending on what went into the first bag. Now they are randomized again before you get your bag. But it still the same pool of tokens. So when one of those 50 bags is pulled then the remaining pool becomes hotter or colder depending on the bag pulled. It works out to be the same as the individual pulls.
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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #82

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Mike Steele wrote: My sealed bags were all from the Saturday clear bags that Steve also got. I do believe that the tokens for the bags were pulled from the same source as the Treasure boxes. I do also agree with Steve that only one UR and nothing higher out of 1650 tokens is statistically unlikely given the distribution others got, although of course not statistically impossible.


These were also half the roughly half the bags I got. So if you add in mine you add another 450ish I ended up getting a Legendary and UR out of them. So you can add that into your calculation as being less likely. I wasn't certain if you got the clear because someone told me you got the last of the 50 bags when you turned in all your pulls at once. If that is the case they made more clear 50's later on Saturday because I pulled the last 3 out of the box Saturday evening. So I don't know if there were only 50 clear bags (not certain where that number came from) or I was misinformed about you getting the last of the bags.
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Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #83

I had one sealed felt bag, and one sealed clear bag.

In the non clear bag, I had a UR, Relic Robes, Belt of Constitution, ring of the hallowed, and the shin guards.
24 Rares, 14 uncommons, 7 monster bits

In the clear bag, I had a belt of constitution.... that is it....
21 rares, 12 uncommon and 16 monster bits...

If we are going to have clear bags in the future, we just need the volunteer to pull them out by handfuls in front of the player until 50 are in the bag. It will slow down the procedure at token grabbing, but the mixes in the clear bags from what I heard later were really bad... So that makes me think that something fishy may have been going on...

I for one will never have an issue getting a sealed felt bag, but I don't think I will ever get the sealed clear bags again.

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Last edit: by Mike Coon.

Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls 2 years 7 months ago #84

Yeah I had significantly worse luck with the clear bags as my relic and UR from pulls were both out of my blue 50 bag and I got nothing relatively worth noting out of the other 3 clear bags. I would like to think this is just poor RNG, but based on what others have been saying maybe it wasn't?

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