TOPIC: Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls

jacob717 wrote:

Harlax wrote: Now that we have nearly 9000 pulls recorded it is clear there were fewer Reserve Bars, URs and Relics in this years mix. A very substantial portion of the "other" category was made up of the Greaves.

The caveat is that it looks like a fair number of the pulls recorded are from 50 bags. The results from those might not be reflective of the total mix available.

Looking at the confidence intervals it looks like URs were between .2% to .75% more frequent in 2016. Relics were .26% to .68% more frequent in 2016. I'd say with the number of tokens pulled being this high even with much of it coming from 50 bags we can safely say the UR+ were reduced this year.

I wonder if Ring of the Hallowed was considered a UR?

Mike Steele wrote:

Kaledor wrote: Blue bags were the best IMO. The other ziplock bags were lacking!

QFT.

QFNot necessarily true - I can confirm the clear bags were from the same treasure mix used for the blue bags and the treasure boxes. If there were "lacking," that's just the way probability worked out.

bpsymington wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Kaledor wrote: Blue bags were the best IMO. The other ziplock bags were lacking!

QFT.

QFNot necessarily true - I can confirm the clear bags were from the same treasure mix used for the blue bags and the treasure boxes. If there were "lacking," that's just the way probability worked out.

Brian, i completely understand/believe that all the treasure came from the same mix (some were questioning this), but that doesnt mean that it was mixed well/distributed completely randomly. It seems pretty clear that there were hot spots and cold. When nearly everyone keeps saying the blue bags were better, that just means that those were filled from more hot spots and/or clear came from cold spots.

My personal experience with the bags was 2 blue that were terrible and one clear that was equally bad...plus another 30-some draws that also didnt have much great (best things were +2 con belt, oil of enchantment, and a few ring of hallowed). Of course my friend (who gives me all tokens because i equip her) pulled a blessed redoubt mail in a blue 50 bag, so it all worked out okay.

kurtreznor wrote:

bpsymington wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Kaledor wrote: Blue bags were the best IMO. The other ziplock bags were lacking!

QFT.

QFNot necessarily true - I can confirm the clear bags were from the same treasure mix used for the blue bags and the treasure boxes. If there were "lacking," that's just the way probability worked out.

Brian, i completely understand/believe that all the treasure came from the same mix (some were questioning this), but that doesnt mean that it was mixed well/distributed completely randomly. It seems pretty clear that there were hot spots and cold. When nearly everyone keeps saying the blue bags were better, that just means that those were filled from more hot spots and/or clear came from cold spots.

My personal experience with the bags was 2 blue that were terrible and one clear that was equally bad...plus another 30-some draws that also didnt have much great (best things were +2 con belt, oil of enchantment, and a few ring of hallowed). Of course my friend (who gives me all tokens because i equip her) pulled a blessed redoubt mail in a blue 50 bag, so it all worked out okay.

So you are saying the clear bags were hot and cold like people say about the blue bags, and the treasure boxes. Hmmm seems about right since it was the same treasure...Just saying.

I was wanting an orange in my blue bag, but no luck. Did get a blue, 2 trade goods (munitions and philosopher Stone), as well as 1000 GP in assorted tokens. No UR either. Some decent rares, but nothing that won't be transmuted.

jedibcg wrote:

kurtreznor wrote:

bpsymington wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Kaledor wrote: Blue bags were the best IMO. The other ziplock bags were lacking!

QFT.

QFNot necessarily true - I can confirm the clear bags were from the same treasure mix used for the blue bags and the treasure boxes. If there were "lacking," that's just the way probability worked out.

Brian, i completely understand/believe that all the treasure came from the same mix (some were questioning this), but that doesnt mean that it was mixed well/distributed completely randomly. It seems pretty clear that there were hot spots and cold. When nearly everyone keeps saying the blue bags were better, that just means that those were filled from more hot spots and/or clear came from cold spots.

My personal experience with the bags was 2 blue that were terrible and one clear that was equally bad...plus another 30-some draws that also didnt have much great (best things were +2 con belt, oil of enchantment, and a few ring of hallowed). Of course my friend (who gives me all tokens because i equip her) pulled a blessed redoubt mail in a blue 50 bag, so it all worked out okay.

So you are saying the clear bags were hot and cold like people say about the blue bags, and the treasure boxes. Hmmm seems about right since it was the same treasure...Just saying.

I don't think you read his post correctly. He's not saying the clear bags ran hot and cold, he's saying that nearly everyone is saying that the clear bags were worse than the blue bags, and in general ran cold while the blue bags ran hotter.

I believe the clear bags came from the same mix but my superstition said the blue bags where better.
My actual numbers showed they were better as well.


Hopefully in the future there won't be clear bags and there will be enough blue sealed 50 bags.


As for the thought that the Ring of the Hallowed was considered "more valuable" there might be some merit in that.

Entered my GHC totals and they were better than GenCon. Looking back at GenCon I guess my overall percentages were average with 18.28% Monster Bits and 5.86% Other. It was the Other = or > UR that was disappointing at 0.34% (1 UR out of 290 pulls). Although I've heard of others doing even worse (ouch).

This is probably the most detailed I've compiled treasure pulls, but here goes.

Total Pulls - 150 (I did 2-50 count bags, and 50 pulls from the box in the transmute room.)
Rare - 45
Uncommon - 60
Monster Bits - 33 (22%)
Other - 12 (8%)
Other =>UR - 3 (2%)

Monster Bits (24 from bags, 9 from box)
7 - Draccus Scale
10 - Iron Rook Rivet
9 - Old Holly Sprig
7 - Scrael Claw

Other (7 from bags, 5 from box)
Starhide Robe - box
Crown of Elemental Master - bag
Figurine of Power: Pixie - bag
Belt of Blessed Constitution - box
Greater Arcane Scroll Tube - bag
4 - Darkguard Greaves (3 bag, 1 box)
2 - Mystic Silk (1 bag, 1 box)
1 - Alchemist Ink

I ended up keeping 6 rare scrolls, 1 rare wand, 1 rare potion and 1 Faerie Dust for potential later dungeon use.

I got 1600gp

Everything else will transmute into trade goods as follows.
Mystic Silk - 4.44
Darkwood Plank - 2.28
Enchanters Munition - 0.96
Elven Bismuth - 0.68
Alchemist Parchment - 0.48
Alchemist Ink - 0.36
Aragonite - 0.36
Oil of Enchantment - 0.24

I heard of at least 3 legendary items being pulled, all from boxes. I'm sure there were probably a few more. I didn't hear of any Eldritch Bars, my friend did pull a 5K Mithral Bar. Oh, and the bags were all blue, I didn't see any clear ones.

I pulled 142 between myself and my son. (Some were left over from GenCon)

45 uncommon
62 Rare
28 monster bits
3 trade goods (EM, MS, PS)
Belt of Blessed CON
Steelclad cloak (from bag)
Amulet of Guarding (from bag)
Starhide Robe (from bag)

Reserve bars seem to be very scarce in the boxes now. Between GC and GHC I got none from a total of about 360 pulls.

But overall I'm very very happy with my GHC pulls.

Although I did tease my son about his pull skill. At GC the person who pulled right in front of him got a 25k bar. At GHC the person who pulled just before him pulled a Sunhide Robe.

I wanted to add that I don't think the "total other" formula in column F is correct. It's only picking up 3 of my 12 others. And right now there is no formula in the other =>UR column. thanks.

Added my GHC pulls to the sheet. Overall 300 were from 50 bags, including my only UR. My monster bits were below average too, and my other was 0.24%, which is well below average, and a little disappointing.

Also, I pulled a Boots of foresight, which was the grind completion token at GC this year.

Overall, the con was an incredible experience, and I got to do a lot of runs with great people, which I really enjoyed.

For eight pulls, I'm pretty sure I can't complain.