TOPIC: Google Doc for 2017-2018 Season Treasure Pulls

User Error obviously but I was unable to input anything

Is there any secret to inputting the information?

I just found another bag of tokens in my luggage.

They did not *improve* my averages.

As the largest treasure pile on the list, I'm roughly 50% under the mix 'average' across the board. My 'other' average is statistically normal, but that is due to the abnormally high number of greaves I pulled. All and all, I feel like I was either very unlucky, or that the majority of my pulls (which came from clear 50 bags) were off ..

This logical fallacy (?) is reinforced by the observation that the four pulls of note I had were from felt 50 count bags obtained Thursday.

Ain't nothing to DO about it .. just feels .. off .. a larger sample size should be moving *towards* the averages, not away from them.

Sorry haven't put any of this in the spreadsheet, go for it if you want.
When and where things were pulled always seems to be of interest so I tried to notate that here.

I got some Blue 50 Bags, I think I got them on friday and I know they were in limited supply I believe i got among the last batch from what I was told.

Blue 50 Bag #1
21 Uncommons
16 rares
9 monster bits
4 other - Right of Hallowed, blessed shirt, oil and steel

Blue 50 Bag #2
17 Uncommon
23 rare
7 bits
3 others - greaves, UR, steel cloak

Blue 50 Bag #3
13 Uncommon
20 Rares
10 bits
7 other - 4 greaves, hallowed, hide, tube

Blue 50 Bag #4
21 Uncommon
19 rare
8 bits
2 other - shirt, greaves

Blue 50 Bag #5
22 Uncommon
14 Rare
10 bits
4 other - shirt, greaves, steel, Boots of the 4 winds.* - Yes

Thursday Night Box pulls

31 Uncommons
22 Rares
18 BIts
8 other - UR, 6 greaves, Hallowed Ring


Saturday Box Pulls
102 uncommons
103 rares
44 bits
13 other - 7 greaves, Hallowed, 3 trade, scroll tube, 1 UR

Plastic 50 Bag Saturday #1
21 Uncommon
17 Rare
9 bits
3 other - silk, Belt, Greaves

Plastic 50 Bag Saturday #2
19 Uncommon
17 Rare
11 Bits
3 other - 2 greaves, 1 Hallowed


I had 1 bag of random stuff I don't remember where it came from.
42 uncommon
37 rare
7 bits
2 other - greaves, scroll tube

I count 779 total pulls
I amassed about 39 runs worth of pulls + all the ones I got with my token order.


I am likely biased but I feel like my blue bags were the "best" but that's likely because I pulled the best token I have ever pulled.

I feel like the mix was less "other" and more bits from last year. I also felt the mix was lighter over all on "good" stuff.

The bulk of those Saturday box pulls were literally done on the last run of the con at like 2am or however early it was. I was actually allowed to pull by hand to speed things up. I was literally just pulling out hand fulls and stacking them to count. I didn't dig or swirl. I maintained eye contact with the box tender the entire time to ensure I didn't look. When I was close to the end, I slowed down and my last pull I grabbed exactly how many I needed. I was impressed with myself but that early in the morning I was mostly impressed I could still count straight. The UR was in that last batch to, I didn't notice until I was scooping to dump in my bag.

Hope all that data helps.

If you're wondering how I had so many pulls, I handle all the tokens for my group. Typically they do most of the pulling and I just sort and bag, we were pressed for time a lot this year so I did a lot of 50 bags. I got accused of hoarding several times because I think they didn't print enough 10 chips and too many 3 chips. They never seemed happy to get my 3 chips back and obsessed over the 10s.

valetutto wrote: I got accused of hoarding several times because I think they didn't print enough 10 chips and too many 3 chips. They never seemed happy to get my 3 chips back and obsessed over the 10s.

That is odd to me because there was a point I know they were actively changing out 3's and singles for 10's for people that were just waiting for the 50's on Saturday (before the clear refills).

Blue bags were the best IMO. The other ziplock bags were lacking!

valetutto wrote: Sorry haven't put any of this in the spreadsheet, go for it if you want.

Done.

Phil Norton wrote:

valetutto wrote: Sorry haven't put any of this in the spreadsheet, go for it if you want.

Done.

If I had virtual cookies to give Phil, you would get one from me.

Bob Chasan wrote: User Error obviously but I was unable to input anything

Is there any secret to inputting the information?

Where are you having trouble? There are certain locked fields like Totals and Percentages, but you should be able to add without specific permissions as long as you have the link, especially in column A. If you are still having trouble feel free to post here and I will input for you.

Phil

Kaledor wrote: Blue bags were the best IMO. The other ziplock bags were lacking!

QFT.

Now that we have nearly 9000 pulls recorded it is clear there were fewer Reserve Bars, URs and Relics in this years mix. A very substantial portion of the "other" category was made up of the Greaves.

The caveat is that it looks like a fair number of the pulls recorded are from 50 bags. The results from those might not be reflective of the total mix available.

Harlax wrote: Now that we have nearly 9000 pulls recorded it is clear there were fewer Reserve Bars, URs and Relics in this years mix. A very substantial portion of the "other" category was made up of the Greaves.

The caveat is that it looks like a fair number of the pulls recorded are from 50 bags. The results from those might not be reflective of the total mix available.

Looking at the confidence intervals it looks like URs were between .2% to .75% more frequent in 2016. Relics were .26% to .68% more frequent in 2016. I'd say with the number of tokens pulled being this high even with much of it coming from 50 bags we can safely say the UR+ were reduced this year.

I really don't think in the long run the source of the treasure mattered. It does seem clear that the percentage of UR+ tokens is significantly down. I pulled one out of 290, which is low for me, even with my general bad luck. Yes, my overall "other" percentage was around average, but that's with over a third of them coming from greaves.