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TOPIC: Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece?

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #85

Brad Mortensen wrote:
You're assuming, based on a couple of years, that $100/Fleece is the norm, and you conclude that Fleece should be exempt from the fluctuations seen in every other trade good, and their prices should be propped up near their historic highs.


I never said anything like that, and I'm selling Fleece on my store for $75, which is pretty strong, some might say conclusive, evidence that I don't think Fleece is worth anything like $100. I've been buying/selling fleece since 2015 and I have never paid or charged $100 or more.




But - the wonderful thing about this debate is that we can all look back on it down the line and see who was right, and who was... less right.

I'm putting out the forecast that unless there is a big uptick in monster bits / fleece sinks, such as:
* Inclusion in Relics
* Inclusion as mandatory ingredients in desirable/BiS usable lower level transmutes (something like Shirt of Blessed Strength or Greater Arcane Scroll Tube, not something like Ironclad Cloak or Belt of Blessed Constitution).
* announced 3/4 year transmutes
* and/or inclusion in Eldritch/Grand Eldritch recipes

We'll continue to see Fleece prices crash through previously all time lows to new lows.

To which a variety of people seem to want to say, No! Because:
* This is normal fluctuations.
* The growing player base will increase demand.
* The availability of monster bits is not in fact growing faster than other token categories

Well - we'll see!


I'm absolutely willing to be wrong about this, all it will take to demonstrate I'm wrong is that no new monster bit / fleece sinks are introduced, no major changes to the treasure mix, and the price of fleece stabilizes at $50 or rebounds higher over the next year.

And all it will take to demonstrate I'm right is the price of fleece to continue to set new lows over the next year.

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Last edit: by Matthew Hayward.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #86

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It has also become more expensive to make legendaries. Most now require 2 Ultra Rares instead of one as was the case earlier.

That might mean fewer Legendaries are being made.

Or perhaps not.
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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #87

Steve wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: I'm curious what your account of why fleece is selling at it's lowest price in the history of True Dungeon would be?


Chart the eBay sales over the last 3 months. If there are not at least 3 indicators .. it isn't a 'trend'. If you can find three consecutive indicators without a spike in between, your trend is validated.

It just feels like we are taking a micro slice in time and trying to fit our logic into an existing preconception.

This is the same reason a lunch manager in a restaurant will swear that hamburger sales are 'up again this week' even if the establishment is actually selling less hamburgers .. too narrow a time-slice to see the actual trend.

Also : To Kirk's point. If next year we see a 3 year 'bits' redemption, people will start hording their fleece again. Right now there is nothing for a new person to 'use' it on .. and they might not understand that, historically, bits can get turned in for a transmutation - so they are willing to sell a 'useless' token for anything they can get.


I basically agree, but there is a confounding factor here: With the current situation anyone who is likely to want a fleece for transmuting (e.g. someone who is building a legendary) is unlikely to desire to buy one at any price.

This is because they almost assuredly have more monster bits/fleece than the need to craft all the Legendaries they want.

As a result very little exchange is happening in the marketplace, so it's hard to see the averages due to few data points.

But - you suggest a fruitful exercise, here is what I can see from eBay:
All completed eBay Sales visible in their search:

7/4 - $49.99 - http://www.ebay.com/itm/Golden-Fleece-True-Dungeon-Trade-Token-/112462023351?hash=item1a2f424ab7:g:q5QAAOSwdGFY4V-C
7/16 - $49.99 - http://www.ebay.com/itm/Golden-Fleece-True-Dungeon-Trade-Token-/192247570149?hash=item2cc2d91ee5:g:q5QAAOSwdGFY4V-C
7/21 - $50.99 - http://www.ebay.com/itm/Golden-Fleece-True-Dungeon-Trade-Token-/112486968314?hash=item1a30beebfa:g:q5QAAOSwdGFY4V-C
7/30 - $49.99 - http://www.ebay.com/itm/Golden-Fleece-True-Dungeon-Trade-Token-/192259816281?hash=item2cc393fb59:g:q5QAAOSwdGFY4V-C

This auction  failed to sell on 7/29:
$59.99 - http://www.ebay.com/itm/GOLDEN-FLEECE-True-Dungeon-GenCon-Indy-/263102841003?hash=item3d4226c0ab:g:qRIAAOSw7g5ZdDcj

There is one up Buy it Now for $62.99 - no takers: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Golden-Fleece-True-Dungeon-Token-Trade-Item-/112361329958?hash=item1a2941d526:g:Y0AAAOSwpP9Y5oav

There is one up for auction starting $52.00 - no bids: http://www.ebay.com/itm/True-Dungeon-Trade-Token-Golden-Fleece-/202001602855?hash=item2f083bd927:g:sDkAAOSwAH1ZfC3n

So, all the data seems to suggest that fleece will sell at $50, but not at $60.

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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #88

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I was actually happy with all the monster bits, I am using 3 this year. However between gencon and gameholecon I am going to be pretty well stocked on fleece for the rest of the legendary I am going to need. I am only keeping around 2 sets of the past few years for whatever I need to munch.

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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #89

Rereading this thread, we may be talking past each other. I'm talking long-term, and I think you're focus is short term.

Okay, to be clear: I've been talking about bits, under the theory that the cost of Fleece is a function of the cost of bits.

I never meant to say there wasn't currently an oversupply of Fleece. There may well be. I'm saying there isn't an oversupply of trophies, and I don't think there ever will be.

I think you're conflating an increase in trophies with an increase in Fleece. Making Fleece is a choice. There's only so much demand for Fleece, but lots of demand for bits.

Matthew Hayward wrote: * Inclusion as mandatory ingredients in desirable/BiS usable lower level transmutes (something like Shirt of Blessed Strength or Greater Arcane Scroll Tube, not something like Ironclad Cloak or Belt of Blessed Constitution).
* announced 3/4 year transmutes
* and/or inclusion in Eldritch/Grand Eldritch recipes


The first two aren't new, and just reiterate why I'm saying not to worry so much. (Again, talking at a bit-level.)

Every year sees transmutes that require bits. Often, players can substitute 300GP for the bit - and that's why Fleece can't stay much below 3000gp. If they do, and if the transmutes are desirable, people will use cheap bits instead of the gold. That will keep them from plummeting much below 300gp.

The second is the "story arc token" that several people, including me, have mentioned several times.

We'll continue to see Fleece prices crash through previously all time lows to new lows.

To which a variety of people seem to want to say, No! Because:
* This is normal fluctuations.
* The growing player base will increase demand.
* The availability of monster bits is not in fact growing faster than other token categories

Well - we'll see!


All good points, but you left out my most compelling reasons: the first two things you say need to happen to keep values high already do, and have for a decade.

And, you and I may disagree on whether it matters that Fleece drop temporarily. So long as bits have support at 300gp, any drop WILL be temporary.

Silks "crashed" when relic Cloaks went OOP. Planks ditto after Keen Bows. Now Fleece are dropping after RoH, and as CoA taper off. I expect the same will happen to Steel after Redoubt.

And all it will take to demonstrate I'm right is the price of fleece to continue to set new lows over the next year.


Not so fast. There is currently no way to unmake Fleece.

I will allow that you may be right in the short term. If people stockpiled Fleece over the last few months just as the demand started dropping, the price may well go lower. But they won't stay there as new bits are used up for non-Fleece purposes.

So Fleece might temporarily drop to new lows. If they do, people will stop making them and use their bits for other things.

But I still don't think that's a long-term situation that warrants drastic steps to mitigate.

I just don't put any greater emphasis on the price of Fleece vs other trade tokens. It's a little like saying "AAPL is down today, so the stock market is crashing." The price of Fleece is no more important than the price of Planks, except to people who started hoarding them at their peak.

Now I'm curious what the market cap of the various trade tokens are. (A DJIA for trade goods, so to speak.) Based on my stash, Fleece make up maybe two percent. (That's another reason I'm less concerned about the price of Fleece. I just assumed everyone else saw this day coming, too.)
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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #90

Brad Mortensen wrote: Rereading this thread, we may be talking past each other. I'm talking long-term, and I think you're focus is short term.

Okay, to be clear: I've been talking about bits, under the theory that the cost of Fleece is a function of the cost of bits.

I never meant to say there wasn't currently an oversupply of Fleece. There may well be. I'm saying there isn't an oversupply of trophies, and I don't think there ever will be.

I think you're conflating an increase in trophies with an increase in Fleece. Making Fleece is a choice. There's only so much demand for Fleece, but lots of demand for bits.

Matthew Hayward wrote: * Inclusion as mandatory ingredients in desirable/BiS usable lower level transmutes (something like Shirt of Blessed Strength or Greater Arcane Scroll Tube, not something like Ironclad Cloak or Belt of Blessed Constitution).
* announced 3/4 year transmutes
* and/or inclusion in Eldritch/Grand Eldritch recipes


The first two aren't new, and just reiterate why I'm saying not to worry so much. (Again, talking at a bit-level.)

Every year sees transmutes that require bits. Often, players can substitute 300GP for the bit - and that's why Fleece can't stay much below 3000gp. If they do, and if the transmutes are desirable, people will use cheap bits instead of the gold. That will keep them from plummeting much below 300gp.

The second is the "story arc token" that several people, including me, have mentioned several times.

We'll continue to see Fleece prices crash through previously all time lows to new lows.

To which a variety of people seem to want to say, No! Because:
* This is normal fluctuations.
* The growing player base will increase demand.
* The availability of monster bits is not in fact growing faster than other token categories

Well - we'll see!


All good points, but you left out my most compelling reasons: the first two things you say need to happen to keep values high already do, and have for a decade.

And, you and I may disagree on whether it matters that Fleece drop temporarily. So long as bits have support at 300gp, any drop WILL be temporary.

Silks "crashed" when relic Cloaks went OOP. Planks ditto after Keen Bows. Now Fleece are dropping after RoH, and as CoA taper off. I expect the same will happen to Steel after Redoubt.

And all it will take to demonstrate I'm right is the price of fleece to continue to set new lows over the next year.


Not so fast. There is currently no way to unmake Fleece.

I will allow that you may be right in the short term. If people stockpiled Fleece over the last few months just as the demand started dropping, the price may well go lower. But they won't stay there as new bits are used up for non-Fleece purposes.

So Fleece might temporarily drop to new lows. If they do, people will stop making them and use their bits for other things.

But I still don't think that's a long-term situation that warrants drastic steps to mitigate.

I just don't put any greater emphasis on the price of Fleece vs other trade tokens. It's a little like saying "AAPL is down today, so the stock market is crashing." The price of Fleece is no more important than the price of Planks, except to people who started hoarding them at their peak.

Now I'm curious what the market cap of the various trade tokens are. (A DJIA for trade goods, so to speak.) Based on my stash, Fleece make up maybe two percent. (That's another reason I'm less concerned about the price of Fleece. I just assumed everyone else saw this day coming, too.)


COol - yes, I may think the two are more related than they really are.

From my perspective the cost of a fleece can't exceed the cost of 10 monster bits by much, if it did you would just buy the monster bits.

It's certainly true though that 10 monster bits can cost more than a fleece - even substantially more - in the case of 2013 trophies this was vividly demonstrated.

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Last edit: by Matthew Hayward.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #91

Matthew Hayward wrote: COol - yes, I may think the two are more related than they really are.

From my perspective the cost of a fleece can't exceed the cost of 10 monster bits by much, if it did you would just buy the monster bits.

It's certainly true though that 10 monster bits can cost more than a fleece - even substantially more - in the case of 2013 trophies this was vividly demonstrated.


There is a obviously a relationship between Fleece and bits in general, but yes, when it comes to individual bits there can be variation.

Regarding everything you said here, as a friend of mine says, "you and I are in violent agreement." :)
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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #92

What if there was an exchange of a certain number of fleece could be used to replace an ultra rare needed for a recipe .....for example 2:1 for in print.....and 5:1 for out of print.
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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #93

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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #94

I think after the CoA's get transmuted at GenCon this year,
and we get another story arc trade in announced,
that fleece will be in demand again.

We just had IceCrag *AND* the RoH going. Both just ended.

Fleece had gone *UP* because of that demand, now it is just returning to pre-demand levels.

Like all things, it will even out. Everyone was screaming about silk 2-3 years ago, and now people are running out because of all the armour and robes :)
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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #95

Adam Guay wrote: What if there was an exchange of a certain number of fleece could be used to replace an ultra rare needed for a recipe .....for example 2:1 for in print.....and 5:1 for out of print.


My suggestion may be to have an alternative recipe with a Golden Fleece replacing an Aragonite, Oil of Enchantment, and Elven Bismuth. They're of similar values. That would be similar to some recipes allowing either GP or Monster Ingredient Tokens. I might also recommend one or two recipes require monster ingredient tokens instead of being alternatives, like was done a couple of years ago. It might also be nice to have a recipe that requires one of each current year monster ingredient tokens, like a mini storyscape token.

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Last edit: by Mike Steele.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #96

Adam Guay wrote: What if there was an exchange of a certain number of fleece could be used to replace an ultra rare needed for a recipe .....for example 2:1 for in print.....and 5:1 for out of print.


You would be hurting Jeff's token sales by doing that. I don't think that is a good idea.
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