Welcome, Guest
Username: Password: Remember me

TOPIC: Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece?

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #49

  • Harlax
  • Harlax's Avatar
  • Away
  • 8th Level
  • Supporter
  • Baruk Khazad!
  • Posts: 7858
Too soon to say. New players from new cons have not had time to gear up to the point that they would consider making legendaries.
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #50

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Steve wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: A Golden Fleece just went on eBay for $49.99 plus $2 shipping.

So much for demand from new player balancing out the excess supply from the extra treasure pulls being generated.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/192259816281


Sales in general have been very, VERY, slow this GenCon leadup.


Interesting - I wonder if that's it?

I might have this totally backwards, but I felt like in years past this was a busy time (although maybe once it's too late to get it before Gen Con things slow down)?


The last few weeks before GenCon .. trades still happen, but sales slow down dramatically. It seemed to start earlier this year .. but there was also a spike after Origins. eBay has always slowed down for me once we hit the 2-3 weeks out.

After GenCon things always pick up, because the new players start to fill out their builds for next year while the experience is still fresh in their minds. It is different in the forums .. we wait for PYP season .. by the time GenCon rolls around most of us, frankly, are a little burned out; plus we have been looking at this years tokens since before January.

There are no 'weapon' legendary transmutes this year (although I guess the Baton counts - but it is restricted to two classes), People seem to want those more than equipment that could be eclipsed by new equipment or sets. So there might be more fleeces around.

Additionally, with Icecrag gone, there are also a lot of 'spare' monster bits floating around .. no real reason to keep them = more fleeces.

Gold has been selling slow too .. I usually move the 25k bar(s) I often get from treasure pulls by the next GenCon .. but I'm guessing legendary transmutes are lower over all .. because even 5k gold bars are selling under price.

eventually people will run out. It already seems like there isn't a lot of GP pulls this year.

I'm also wondering if people are saving up for GenCon 50 .. wondering if there will be 'extra cool' stuff because of the anniversary. I've had a few people ask me to hold tokens for after GenCon, because they want to bring extra $ to the convention.

Economies .. real or fake .. they are all tricky :)
I used to be an industry professional responsible for making sure Japan was able to buy some of the best toy soldiers ever made.

Now I'm just an old gamer :)

www.TrueDungeonTokens.com

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Last edit: by Steve.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #51

I would postulate two things:

A number of additional runs provided by GameholeCon and Origins leading to more treasure take by long time players.

More token sales earlier in the year which lead to more trade goods, etc.

Both of this could contribute to a depression of prices on the secondary market.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #52

One should remember that it may take a while for new players to start transmuting. I didn't get involved in the forum nor transmute for the first few years I played. I didn't even enter my experience points earned.
Also whatever perceived softness exists currently in the secondary market is probably a short term effect and will only be properly assessed in the long term. Therefore suggesting recipes be changed to buoy prices in a secondary market is bad advice. People may save for years in an effort to get all the necessary ingredients. An ever changing recipe would be extremely frustrating. I assume the corollary would hold true that once the price of goods returned to some arbitrary price. That the recipe would again be adjusted to the previous version not requiring the additional goods.

Or is the recommendation based on making Relics more difficult to acquire?
Please visit my fledgling token store.
truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=583&id=247486

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #53

I think the idea was that was that there is extra golden fleece, so giving us something to do with it was the plan.

Bottom line, we will probably have a 3 or 4 year monster bit transmute coming up, so just save them, or not, but you may regret it.
First ever death in True Horde
"Well, with you guarding 2 players, that means you take 90. Are you dead?"
-Incognito

My token shop/trade thread: Wade's Wide World of Wonder 

My Current Paladin Build 

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #54

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Kirk Bauer wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Let's assume Origins has 1/2 the treasure pulls of GC. Another 135 circulating fleece


There are going to be way fewer pulls at Origins. GenCon has about 8,000 TD tickets. Origins will have about 1,100 by my math (the dungeon is open 8 hours per day for 3 days; 40 runs per day, minus about 100 for breaks). I'd also suspect the average player to more likely to draw just 3 or 4 treasure tokens.

I think the other conventions added together are going to add about a 25% bump to treasure draws. Not trivial, but not as significant as you have assumed.


And remember:
1) (most significant in my mind) the Nuggets will raise the loot cap by six (a 33% increase) - that alone could add more bits than all the satellite cons together, without the benefit of bringing in more players.
1a) and Nuggets increase the extra loot from ALL cons.
2) many newbies will keep their loot as souvenirs, or lose them in the back of the closet.
3) anti-ghosting restrictions will decrease the amount of treasure drawn, and/or give the opportunity for more newbies to join in - whether they will is a matter of speculation.
4) all the four-point transmutes so far allows bits instead of gold.

Not saying you're wrong to be concerned. You raise many of the same issues that others have whenever a new URTE is debated. It just feels like the blame is shifting from the root cause onto new players.



All of this.
Lori-gorgon Survivor.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #55

Harlax wrote: Too soon to say. New players from new cons have not had time to gear up to the point that they would consider making legendaries.


I'm a 5 year player and just now looking at relics let alone legendaries. I believe and trust that it's going to take a while for player base to get caught up.

Many of us formites traveled to various cons for various reasons in the past year. Some for the novelty of old rooms, new cons and to play more in general. TDC was because it's the 15th, Origins because it's less crowded then Indy, GHC for closeness for some. I'd also be willing to bet that those of us have access to treasure enhancers skewing our math on pulls even further. Once a routine of cons are established I'd wonder if some of us will not be so quick to jump on/goto another con just because of TD and instead pick which ones we prefer.

I love TD but 4 cons in one 12 month period is a bit much for some of us and not enough for others.

I'd be curious what the post gencon #'s look like as people sell extra pills and players look for upgrades.
We're all the kind of people who enjoy the game on a "meta" level. We like talking about the game year-round. We buy tokens. We enjoy crafting. We get together during the off-season if we can. We are a very skewed demographic that way. -Raven

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #56

Matt wrote:

Harlax wrote: Too soon to say. New players from new cons have not had time to gear up to the point that they would consider making legendaries.


I'm a 5 year player and just now looking at relics let alone legendaries. I believe and trust that it's going to take a while for player base to get caught up.

Many of us formites traveled to various cons for various reasons in the past year. Some for the novelty of old rooms, new cons and to play more in general. TDC was because it's the 15th, Origins because it's less crowded then Indy, GHC for closeness for some. I'd also be willing to bet that those of us have access to treasure enhancers skewing our math on pulls even further. Once a routine of cons are established I'd wonder if some of us will not be so quick to jump on/goto another con just because of TD and instead pick which ones we prefer.

I love TD but 4 cons in one 12 month period is a bit much for some of us and not enough for others.

I'd be curious what the post gencon #'s look like as people sell extra pills and players look for upgrades.



+2
Please visit my fledgling token store.
truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=583&id=247486

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #57

  • Harlax
  • Harlax's Avatar
  • Away
  • 8th Level
  • Supporter
  • Baruk Khazad!
  • Posts: 7858

Matt wrote:

Harlax wrote: Too soon to say. New players from new cons have not had time to gear up to the point that they would consider making legendaries.



I love TD but 4 cons in one 12 month period is a bit much for some of us and not enough for others.


I plan to retire in just under 4 years. I could do full time volunteer at a lot of conventions. :woohoo:
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #58

Not every trophy ends up as Fleece, so while it's an interesting datapoint, I think it's a mistake to focus on just that part of the equation. I'm wondering how many bits are spent on 3- and 4-point and Icecrag-like transmutes compared to Fleece.

With recipes saying one trophy = 300 GP, and at $20/1kGP, there is support for Fleece at $60. I've always opted to use gold vs trophies in transmutes. If Fleece consistently sell for $50 or less, then a lot of people (like me) are going to make a lot fewer Fleece as they put their bits into other recipes.

The point is, I don't think we need to worry about legendaries to keep the price of Fleece from dropping that far; not in the long term, anyway. Newbies are much more likely to use their bits in place of 300gp for a few low-level transmutes than to start cranking out legendaries.

Fleece are just one of 12 trade goods. Prices on all of them have fluctuated a lot over the years, with the high sometimes being four to five times the low. Gold has dropped from $30 to $20/1k in the last six years. I'm just not sure why we're so worried about one trade good and ignoring the rest - and it's the one trade good that has support at 3000 GP that will keep it from becoming next year's Plank.
barkley.neo.rr.com -->see my trade thread HERE , my eBay store HERE or my web store HERE
"Ceci n'est pas une pipe" - Magritte

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #59

  • Harlax
  • Harlax's Avatar
  • Away
  • 8th Level
  • Supporter
  • Baruk Khazad!
  • Posts: 7858

Brad Mortensen wrote: Not every trophy ends up as Fleece, so while it's an interesting datapoint, I think it's a mistake to focus on just that part of the equation. I'm wondering how many bits are spent on 3- and 4-point and Icecrag-like transmutes compared to Fleece.

With recipes saying one trophy = 300 GP, and at $20/1kGP, there is support for Fleece at $60. I've always opted to use gold vs trophies in transmutes. If Fleece consistently sell for $50 or less, then a lot of people (like me) are going to make a lot fewer Fleece as they put their bits into other recipes.

The point is, I don't think we need to worry about legendaries to keep the price of Fleece from dropping that far; not in the long term, anyway. Newbies are much more likely to use their bits in place of 300gp for a few low-level transmutes than to start cranking out legendaries.

Fleece are just one of 12 trade goods. Prices on all of them have fluctuated a lot over the years, with the high sometimes being four to five times the low. Gold has dropped from $30 to $20/1k in the last six years. I'm just not sure why we're so worried about one trade good and ignoring the rest - and it's the one trade good that has support at 3000 GP that will keep it from becoming next year's Plank.


So maybe the tweak is to up the gold to 400. That would support a price of $80 and not be much of change in gold.

Or may just not worry about it at all.
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 3 years 2 months ago #60

Harlax wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote: Not every trophy ends up as Fleece, so while it's an interesting datapoint, I think it's a mistake to focus on just that part of the equation. I'm wondering how many bits are spent on 3- and 4-point and Icecrag-like transmutes compared to Fleece.

With recipes saying one trophy = 300 GP, and at $20/1kGP, there is support for Fleece at $60. I've always opted to use gold vs trophies in transmutes. If Fleece consistently sell for $50 or less, then a lot of people (like me) are going to make a lot fewer Fleece as they put their bits into other recipes.

The point is, I don't think we need to worry about legendaries to keep the price of Fleece from dropping that far; not in the long term, anyway. Newbies are much more likely to use their bits in place of 300gp for a few low-level transmutes than to start cranking out legendaries.

Fleece are just one of 12 trade goods. Prices on all of them have fluctuated a lot over the years, with the high sometimes being four to five times the low. Gold has dropped from $30 to $20/1k in the last six years. I'm just not sure why we're so worried about one trade good and ignoring the rest - and it's the one trade good that has support at 3000 GP that will keep it from becoming next year's Plank.


So maybe the tweak is to up the gold to 400. That would support a price of $80 and not be much of change in gold.

Or may just not worry about it at all.


Of course, that change might result in less glut for fleece and more glut for GP. :)

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Time to create page: 0.197 seconds