TOPIC: Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece?

Matthew Hayward wrote:

James J Krot wrote: I am stocking up on fleeces since I have a ton of transmutes coming up with them.

This confuses me.

The only things that take Fleece in their recipe are legendaries.

Do you have a ton of legendaries in your transmute pipeline?

Well I am expecting at some point to changed all my blessed redoubt set into Legendary. Also I am expecting Kilt Eldritch to need one and most likely Ioun stone treasure set to need one plus the dragon teeth to need one. Plus I have one set aside for my +5 Baton transmute I am going to do that in person at gencon I am to paranoid to do that in the mail. If i ever finish all of that then transmute my Front Giant to fire giant.

jedibcg wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Kirk Bauer wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Let's assume Origins has 1/2 the treasure pulls of GC. Another 135 circulating fleece

There are going to be way fewer pulls at Origins. GenCon has about 8,000 TD tickets. Origins will have about 1,100 by my math (the dungeon is open 8 hours per day for 3 days; 40 runs per day, minus about 100 for breaks). I'd also suspect the average player to more likely to draw just 3 or 4 treasure tokens.

I think the other conventions added together are going to add about a 25% bump to treasure draws. Not trivial, but not as significant as you have assumed.

And remember:
1) (most significant in my mind) the Nuggets will raise the loot cap by six (a 33% increase) - that alone could add more bits than all the satellite cons together, without the benefit of bringing in more players.
1a) and Nuggets increase the extra loot from ALL cons.
2) many newbies will keep their loot as souvenirs, or lose them in the back of the closet.
3) anti-ghosting restrictions will decrease the amount of treasure drawn, and/or give the opportunity for more newbies to join in - whether they will is a matter of speculation.
4) all the four-point transmutes so far allows bits instead of gold.

Not saying you're wrong to be concerned. You raise many of the same issues that others have whenever a new URTE is debated. It just feels like the blame is shifting from the root cause onto new players.

1. I think your math is off. That would be assuming that there are a full set of Nuggets on every run. We know that is not going to be the case.
1a. Not disagreeing with that fact that it will increase the number of draws just that your increase percentage is incorrect.

I said the cap increased by that percentage, not that token draws did. I don't have the data to extrapolate that. Didn't mean to sound like I was.

But in my experience, the higher the cap, the more runs people do. (Maybe its visa versa.) Most newbies run once or twice for their 3 chips. Many vets run a half-dozen times, plus or minus, with their 16/17/19 (and 23 in four years). Do they run a lot because they have URTEs, or did they get URTEs because they run a lot? Don't know. I just see a correlation.

Brad Mortensen wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Kirk Bauer wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Let's assume Origins has 1/2 the treasure pulls of GC. Another 135 circulating fleece

There are going to be way fewer pulls at Origins. GenCon has about 8,000 TD tickets. Origins will have about 1,100 by my math (the dungeon is open 8 hours per day for 3 days; 40 runs per day, minus about 100 for breaks). I'd also suspect the average player to more likely to draw just 3 or 4 treasure tokens.

I think the other conventions added together are going to add about a 25% bump to treasure draws. Not trivial, but not as significant as you have assumed.

And remember:
1) (most significant in my mind) the Nuggets will raise the loot cap by six (a 33% increase) - that alone could add more bits than all the satellite cons together, without the benefit of bringing in more players.
1a) and Nuggets increase the extra loot from ALL cons.
2) many newbies will keep their loot as souvenirs, or lose them in the back of the closet.
3) anti-ghosting restrictions will decrease the amount of treasure drawn, and/or give the opportunity for more newbies to join in - whether they will is a matter of speculation.
4) all the four-point transmutes so far allows bits instead of gold.

Not saying you're wrong to be concerned. You raise many of the same issues that others have whenever a new URTE is debated. It just feels like the blame is shifting from the root cause onto new players.

1. I think your math is off. That would be assuming that there are a full set of Nuggets on every run. We know that is not going to be the case.
1a. Not disagreeing with that fact that it will increase the number of draws just that your increase percentage is incorrect.

I said the cap increased by that percentage, not that token draws did. I don't have the data to extrapolate that. Didn't mean to sound like I was.

But in my experience, the higher the cap, the more runs people do. (Maybe its visa versa.) Most newbies run once or twice for their 3 chips. Many vets run a half-dozen times, plus or minus, with their 16/17/19 (and 23 in four years). Do they run a lot because they have URTEs, or did they get URTEs because they run a lot? Don't know. I just see a correlation.

Sorry I missed that. I stand corrected you are correct. Yeah I think vet run alot because they like TD, first and foremost. I don't know that all vets are at the Loot Cap or even care about treasure. In fact I know some are do not because I have spoken with them. I agree some vets run half a dozen times at any given con, but not all of us do. As the price goes up that also will have some unknown factor in the number of runs vets and newbs do. If we get a 6 dollar increase every time we get a token to pull 2 more treasure I don't think we are moving in the right direction at Gen Con (other cons are a different story).

balthasar wrote: I think requiring all Relics to need a Fleece is a bit much. If memory serves, the Relics were meant to be transmutable by mid level buyers? How many treasure pulls do those players get, on average? If there is a possible glut of Fleece, what about the values of Oil, Bismuth, and Aragonite? Should we increase those in recipes as well? There will be a lot of extra Rare and Uncommon tokens floating around.

I would be on board with more optional uses of the monster bits, like we have had with the 3 and 4 star recipes.

There are two major differences, first is that the supply of fleece is going up way more than the supply of other ingredients, second is that those other ingredients get used in more recipes, so there is more demand.

This is because all the other ingredients are available in token 10 packs, so adding 50% more treasure increases the supply of fleece by 50%, but increases the supply of all other trade goods by a much lower percentage, since the denominator of that fraction includes ass the stuff sold in token 10 packs.

Example - suppose we go from 40,000 to 60,000 treasure pulls with 50,000 token 10 packs.

Then monster trophies increase by 60000 / 40000 = 1.5
Rares/uncoomons increase by maybe (48000+150000) / (32000 + 150000) = 1.1


And, obviously, every relic recipe calls for trade items, none of the current ones call for fleece.

James J Krot wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

James J Krot wrote: I am stocking up on fleeces since I have a ton of transmutes coming up with them.

This confuses me.

The only things that take Fleece in their recipe are legendaries.

Do you have a ton of legendaries in your transmute pipeline?

Well I am expecting at some point to changed all my blessed redoubt set into Legendary. Also I am expecting Kilt Eldritch to need one and most likely Ioun stone treasure set to need one plus the dragon teeth to need one. Plus I have one set aside for my +5 Baton transmute I am going to do that in person at gencon I am to paranoid to do that in the mail. If i ever finish all of that then transmute my Front Giant to fire giant.

good news, historically Eldritch transmutes don't require fleece. More sort of good news, it has been announced that the treasure iouns will not be part of a transmute.

But, you've sort of articulated the problem. You are a pretty serious collector and you're looking to use 5 fleece over the next several years (4 if there is no legendary helm).

Matthew Hayward wrote:

James J Krot wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

James J Krot wrote: I am stocking up on fleeces since I have a ton of transmutes coming up with them.

This confuses me.

The only things that take Fleece in their recipe are legendaries.

Do you have a ton of legendaries in your transmute pipeline?

Well I am expecting at some point to changed all my blessed redoubt set into Legendary. Also I am expecting Kilt Eldritch to need one and most likely Ioun stone treasure set to need one plus the dragon teeth to need one. Plus I have one set aside for my +5 Baton transmute I am going to do that in person at gencon I am to paranoid to do that in the mail. If i ever finish all of that then transmute my Front Giant to fire giant.

good news, historically Eldritch transmutes don't require fleece. More sort of good news, it has been announced that the treasure iouns will not be part of a transmute.

But, you've sort of articulated the problem. You are a pretty serious collector and you're looking to use 5 fleece over the next several years (4 if there is no legendary helm).

Whoa whoa whoa when did they announce they weren't going to transmute the 3 ioun treasure tokens I totally missed that.

James J Krot wrote:
Whoa whoa whoa when did they announce they weren't going to transmute the 3 ioun treasure tokens I totally missed that.

Jeff said there may be another TE transmute sometime time in the future that will not use the ioun stones but may use the AoTF and other future TE tokens. I will see if I can find the thread but I would recommend we discuss that in that thread.

www.truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=527&id=244042#267467

A Golden Fleece just went on eBay for $49.99 plus $2 shipping.

So much for demand from new player balancing out the excess supply from the extra treasure pulls being generated.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/192259816281

Matthew Hayward wrote: A Golden Fleece just went on eBay for $49.99 plus $2 shipping.

So much for demand from new player balancing out the excess supply from the extra treasure pulls being generated.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/192259816281

Sales in general have been very, VERY, slow this GenCon leadup.

Steve wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: A Golden Fleece just went on eBay for $49.99 plus $2 shipping.

So much for demand from new player balancing out the excess supply from the extra treasure pulls being generated.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/192259816281

Sales in general have been very, VERY, slow this GenCon leadup.

Interesting - I wonder if that's it?

I might have this totally backwards, but I felt like in years past this was a busy time (although maybe once it's too late to get it before Gen Con things slow down)?

Matthew Hayward wrote: A Golden Fleece just went on eBay for $49.99 plus $2 shipping.

So much for demand from new player balancing out the excess supply from the extra treasure pulls being generated.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/192259816281

I was going to bid on it but I've already picked up 4 or 5 in the $50 range. Think I mentioned this in another thread but I suggest adding a Fleece to all future Relic recipes and have all Legendaries require two of them.

Steve wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: A Golden Fleece just went on eBay for $49.99 plus $2 shipping.

So much for demand from new player balancing out the excess supply from the extra treasure pulls being generated.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/192259816281

Sales in general have been very, VERY, slow this GenCon leadup.

I agree, at least it seems that way.