TOPIC: Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece?

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Golden Fleece just sold on eBay for $33.95 shipped, post announcement of a 4c transmute.

New all time low.

Update - 2x Golden Fleece just sold for $79.51 shipped on eBay, ~39.75 per.

Been under 40 for months now.

I would guess it goes lower before it goes higher with 3-4 more presentations before the likely announcement of any future transmutes. But who knows - maybe Charm of Awakened Synergy + a 4c Transmute from this year will turn the tide.

After a year or so I feel an update is in order.

Fleece has rebounded back to $50, then $55, recently an eBay sale went for $66.

With the 2019 and 2020 relics requiring 1 Fleece, Legendaries requiring 2 Fleece, and Kilt of Dungeonbane requiring 1 Fleece, along with some really nice enhanced/exalted (Blessed Tempest Gloves, Enchanter's Whetstone), and the Orion's Belt all putting some pressure on fleece it's nice to see the price recovering somewhat from its years long slump.

I am concerned there is a second wave of fleece depression coming, as it appears to me that:

A. There are fewer 2019 MB sets around than the 2016, 17, or 18s.
B. Bead of the Lucky Traveler is underwhelming and not commanding a premium relative to the price of 18 random monster bits.

Which combine to mean there should be plenty of 2016, 17, and 18 MBs getting turned into Fleece starting now and continuing through the end of 2020 as people give up on BotLT.

I'm glad to see Fleece rebounding, and I think it will be great to get it back up in the $80-100 range where a MB pull is really exciting and valuable.

I don't know where the Bead of the Lucky Traveller price will settle, but the two that sold on eBay so far sold for an average of $177, which is nearly $10 per monster bit or $100 per Fleece.

Matthew Hayward wrote: I am concerned there is a second wave of fleece depression coming, as it appears to me that:

A. There are fewer 2019 MB sets around than the 2016, 17, or 18s.
B. Bead of the Lucky Traveler is underwhelming and not commanding a premium relative to the price of 18 random monster bits.

A - True. The accidental reduction in sets caused a lot of players to dump their earlier sets as they realized they couldn’t make as many Beads as they planned. It’s a paradox that a reduction in bit sets has resulted in a flooding of the market, but there it is.
B - This point seems both debatable because the Bead is easily BIS for now, and irrelevant because I cannot recall any transmute EVER commanding a premium over the price of the components, at least not while it was in print.

And I still think measuring the health of the token market by a single metric (price of Fleece) is an oversimplification, so I think making decisions to try to drive the price of Fleece to match its historic high is misguided.

IIRC, Fleece were about 50 when I started playing. Targeting $80 just feels greedy to me

Brad, you said, "I cannot recall any transmute EVER commanding a premium over the price of the components, at least not while it was in print"...

do others feel the same way? I have had MANY tell me its cheaper to just buy the item than to make the item...

I know that I too have been watching the Bead...and very disappointed with the market for it...just not a powerful enough token to create a demand I guess.

I also will ADMIT: To new players, SAVES do not mean much...if you want the broad market to appreciate the value of SAVES, then something needs to be done to make sure that SAVES are more important.

Simply put in human nature...if everyone takes 6 points of damage for failing a SAVE roll, a novice player will generally be okay with it.

Jamie Campbell wrote: Brad, you said, "I cannot recall any transmute EVER commanding a premium over the price of the components, at least not while it was in print"...

do others feel the same way? I have had MANY tell me its cheaper to just buy the item than to make the item...

I know that I too have been watching the Bead...and very disappointed with the market for it...just not a powerful enough token to create a demand I guess.

I also will ADMIT: To new players, SAVES do not mean much...if you want the broad market to appreciate the value of SAVES, then something needs to be done to make sure that SAVES are more important.

Simply put in human nature...if everyone takes 6 points of damage for failing a SAVE roll, a novice player will generally be okay with it.

I think saves are important, they are just hard to notice.

It's easy to notice when you are hit in melee and take damage.

It's a lot harder to notice what is going on when the DM rolls a due and says: "Bard, Dwarf Fighter, Wizard, you are to terrified to attack this round." - but losing an action is way worse for you than taking 8 damage in most cases.

In room 7 when it's combat "save or die" is a pretty common mechanic.

TL;DR - I understand why new players don't value saves, but I think they are making a tactical error.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Jamie Campbell wrote: Brad, you said, "I cannot recall any transmute EVER commanding a premium over the price of the components, at least not while it was in print"...

do others feel the same way? I have had MANY tell me its cheaper to just buy the item than to make the item...

I know that I too have been watching the Bead...and very disappointed with the market for it...just not a powerful enough token to create a demand I guess.

I also will ADMIT: To new players, SAVES do not mean much...if you want the broad market to appreciate the value of SAVES, then something needs to be done to make sure that SAVES are more important.

Simply put in human nature...if everyone takes 6 points of damage for failing a SAVE roll, a novice player will generally be okay with it.

I think saves are important, they are just hard to notice.

It's easy to notice when you are hit in melee and take damage.

It's a lot harder to notice what is going on when the DM rolls a due and says: "Bard, Dwarf Fighter, Wizard, you are to terrified to attack this round." - but losing an action is way worse for you than taking 8 damage in most cases.

In room 7 when it's combat "save or die" is a pretty common mechanic.

TL;DR - I understand why new players don't value saves, but I think they are making a tactical error.

Save > AC.

New players are not making the bead, duh. You have to been playing for 4 years to make the bead. I don't know that a new player (starting in 2019) is going to go bye 3 pasts sets of Monster Bits vs just buying the bead if they want it. dunno.

Bead is a solid token if you acquired the tokens to make it from regular play, imo. Icecrag's may seem nicer but I have had the saves come up more often than cold damage. The regen is at most 6 points of health. Don't get me wrong I am not removing Iecrag's anytime soon, but if it was a choice between Lucky and Ice, I would chose Lucky at my current play level....luckily....hehehehe....it is not a choice we have to make.

For me the choice wasn't to make beads or not make beads. I have 10 for your group. The question is do I make Orion's belts. I have MB and RRF to make 7 (with balance out trading another 3) but I don't have the other trade goods to make that many. Dwarven Steel in particular. I am also looking at the 2020 relics knowing that I cannot make them if I make too many Orions'.

Jamie Campbell wrote: Brad, you said, "I cannot recall any transmute EVER commanding a premium over the price of the components, at least not while it was in print"...

do others feel the same way? I have had MANY tell me its cheaper to just buy the item than to make the item...

I know that I too have been watching the Bead...and very disappointed with the market for it...just not a powerful enough token to create a demand I guess.

I also will ADMIT: To new players, SAVES do not mean much...if you want the broad market to appreciate the value of SAVES, then something needs to be done to make sure that SAVES are more important.

Simply put in human nature...if everyone takes 6 points of damage for failing a SAVE roll, a novice player will generally be okay with it.

It is quite rare to see the cost to build being less than the cost to buy an item. Legendaries, for example, run $600 for the gold or gold plus wish ring, another $60 for fleece, then another $200 (minimum) for trade goods putting you at $850-$900 before you account for the cost of the relic ($300 to buy, $400 to build) plus the extra items needed (variable from $50 to $600). Even a brand new item, when you can get all the components as PYPs, the cost to build is higher than the cost to buy.

Fleece also got more demand this year because of Orion's Belt. Now that a lot of people have finished that transmute along with the bead and the kilts, I suspect we'll see monster bit prices dropping back down (especially with more conventions). I don't know if they'll drop down to the cost for fleece but $10 per is a pretty reasonable guess. Fleece will probably stay between $60 and $70 in the short term.

Jamie Campbell wrote: I also will ADMIT: To new players, SAVES do not mean much...if you want the broad market to appreciate the value of SAVES, then something needs to be done to make sure that SAVES are more important.

Simply put in human nature...if everyone takes 6 points of damage for failing a SAVE roll, a novice player will generally be okay with it.

You sir have clearly never faced a dragon. Let me tell you, the year after Smoak, no one disputed how important saves were Seriously though, your probably right in that you can mostly ignore saves on normal. When do they become more important? When it happens you'll know.

That all said I think we are seeing the floor for beads right now since there are a lot for sale. I'm holding onto my extra one for a few more years, I would he very surprised not to see it go up.

Mike Steele wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Golden Fleece just sold on eBay for $33.95 shipped, post announcement of a 4c transmute.

New all time low.

Update - 2x Golden Fleece just sold for $79.51 shipped on eBay, ~39.75 per.

Been under 40 for months now.

I would guess it goes lower before it goes higher with 3-4 more presentations before the likely announcement of any future transmutes. But who knows - maybe Charm of Awakened Synergy + a 4c Transmute from this year will turn the tide.

After a year or so I feel an update is in order.

Fleece has rebounded back to $50, then $55, recently an eBay sale went for $66.

With the 2019 and 2020 relics requiring 1 Fleece, Legendaries requiring 2 Fleece, and Kilt of Dungeonbane requiring 1 Fleece, along with some really nice enhanced/exalted (Blessed Tempest Gloves, Enchanter's Whetstone), and the Orion's Belt all putting some pressure on fleece it's nice to see the price recovering somewhat from its years long slump.

I am concerned there is a second wave of fleece depression coming, as it appears to me that:

A. There are fewer 2019 MB sets around than the 2016, 17, or 18s.
B. Bead of the Lucky Traveler is underwhelming and not commanding a premium relative to the price of 18 random monster bits.

Which combine to mean there should be plenty of 2016, 17, and 18 MBs getting turned into Fleece starting now and continuing through the end of 2020 as people give up on BotLT.

I'm glad to see Fleece rebounding, and I think it will be great to get it back up in the $80-100 range where a MB pull is really exciting and valuable.

I don't know where the Bead of the Lucky Traveller price will settle, but the two that sold on eBay so far sold for an average of $177, which is nearly $10 per monster bit or $100 per Fleece.

One just sold on eBay for $151.

The last three eBay sales were at:

September 5: 187.5
October 3: $167.5
November 12: $151

So we're already down to $8.39 per bit (not counting the Bead of Firehold itself and the transmute cost), and the trend is clear.

A GF just sold on eBay for $71.

Looks good - although we still have to absorb all the 2016-18s that will be fleeced in the next year or two.

Matthew Hayward wrote: A GF just sold on eBay for $71.

Looks good - although we still have to absorb all the 2016-18s that will be fleeced in the next year or two.

I sincerely don’t understand your obsession with the price of bits, and why you set a Fleece target about twice the historical average.

When I started playing in 2009, bits went for $5. I realize you started 4 years later. One of your first data points was the $20 bits from 2014. And yes, Fleece got to around $100, but that was an anomaly, and you’re convinced it should be the new norm. A lot of prices were different back then. PYPs were 125. Silks, Steel, and Stones got to 10. Munitions were 8. Oil, Bismuth, and Aragonite were 50% higher than today. The cheapest trade goods went for 4, and gold was $30/1k. Why aren’t we doing anything to drive up the prices of trade goods and URs? That’s a much broader problem.

So I strongly disagree that $71 Fleece “looks good.” I think we’ve overshot the mark. And I also strongly disagree with whole concept of TD setting price targets and intentionally manipulating the market to try to achieve them. It feels immoral to me.

Besides, $40 Fleece is about right relative to the price of other goods

I'm OK with True Dungeon adjusting treasure box percentages, transmuted recipes, etc., with an eye on maintaining some level of price/value for various trade tokens, monster bits, etc., for a couple of reasons.

First, I think that when some values drop below a certain point, that reflects a glut of those tokens in the market, which could (in my opinion) impact people's decisions whether to buy more tokens/tickets. The main reason transmuted / combo tokens were created in the first place was to help remove excess tokens from circulation, so adjusting them to relieve gluts and as a result raise prices is in accordance with the original intention.

Second, I think some token purchases (especially $8K auctions, but also likely some individual purchases) are made if the buyer feels they are getting a good value (their "money's worth") from the purchase. If values of things like trade item tokens drop too far, that can impact sales (again, in my opinion), which could impact a vital revenue stream for True Dungeon.

Brad, I do agree that $5 - $6 seems like a decent range for monster bits. I don't have a problem if they go higher, but I'm OK if they don't. If they go too high, that might create a situation again where the value of token pulls from a TD run are worth a lot more than the price of a ticket, which can lead to some negative behaviors.