TOPIC: Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece?

Yeah I wouldn't say I am swimming in them, but I got 45 bits at GC last year which is definitely more than I need.

I agree I'd like to see a new Fallen Star Mushroom equivalent next year. It could even require 1 of each bit.

Kirk Bauer wrote: That was actually a mistake, I don't have that many to sell at that price

But I think the big thing you are missing is increased player base. If the player base expands at the same rate as the new runs then we won't have a big surplus of trophies. In fact, if some of the new players get really into tokens, it could actually cause a bit of a surge in demand since they may try to catch up on the older legendaries.

I also hope we see more recipes like the Fallen Star Mushroom that take a specific combination of monster trophies.

People keep saying "but the player base is increasing!"

I don't think this can stem the tide.

Every 70 treasure pulls produces a Golden Fleece. If we assume 1/2 of all treasure ends up in non-circulating collections, sock drawers, and trashcans, that's still one circulating fleece every 150 or so treasure pulls.

Origins could easily kick out 200 circulating Fleece.

Who is going to transmute 200 legendaries this year?

The expending player base? No.

If each year 50 8k orders worth of tokens get sold, then about 2.1 million GP get out into circulation, and 50 wish rings.

That is enough to make ~72 legendaries if every single GP from all of that is transmuted.

So... we've found a use for 72 of our 200 circulating Fleece from Origins alone.

Why are you discounting the impact of 3c or 4c tokens. Or transmutes like the fallen star.

IF this is a problem, it's easily remedied.

Harlax wrote:

Kirk Bauer wrote:
I also hope we see more recipes like the Fallen Star Mushroom that take a specific combination of monster trophies.

^^^^^^^^^^^

I've been pushing for that the last couple of years, but the majority of people seemed to be against that idea, and Jeff has been making them optional again. I do recognize that Fallen Star Mushroom was an exception, as it was a Transmute that was functionally equivalent to an Ultra-Rare.

Harlax wrote: Why are you discounting the impact of 3c or 4c tokens. Or transmutes like the fallen star.

IF this is a problem, it's easily remedied.

I'm not discounting them, I'm calling for the the announcement of recipes that use ingredients.

Right now there is no such tokens in print, or on the horizon.

That's the problem - massively ramping up supply (1.5 to 2x of past years), with essentially no demand.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Harlax wrote: Why are you discounting the impact of 3c or 4c tokens. Or transmutes like the fallen star.

IF this is a problem, it's easily remedied.

I'm not discounting them, I'm calling for the the announcement of recipes that use ingredients.

Then we are on the same page.

Matthew Hayward wrote: People keep saying "but the player base is increasing!"

I don't think this can stem the tide.

Every 70 treasure pulls produces a Golden Fleece.

The false assumption is that every trophy turns to Fleece. Granted that was (mostly) true in the past, but there have always been recipes that set the floor price of a bit to 300gp.

So long as gold doesn't hit zero, then neither will bits (or Fleece.)

Harlax wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Harlax wrote: Why are you discounting the impact of 3c or 4c tokens. Or transmutes like the fallen star.

IF this is a problem, it's easily remedied.

I'm not discounting them, I'm calling for the the announcement of recipes that use ingredients.

Then we are on the same page.

I'm on that page also. And I am in agreement that Monster Ingredient Tokens are in a larger supply than in the past - I know several people (including me) set aside at least 25 of each monster ingredient token from the last year.

How about this to address the potential issue? Why don't we have a "Mini-Storyscape" token each year, with the ingredient list simply be one of each monster ingredient token for that year?

We could even have two next year, with one of them covering the monster ingredient tokens from the last GENCON, and one covering the next GENCON. Then, you'd just have one of them per year.

I'll also say, in my limited experience as a DM in a puzzle run at GenCon, that a surprising percent of runs are just normal players, not like us. Perhaps puzzle runs are different. But my guess is about 10% of players draw 18 tokens, 10% draw 7 tokens, and 80% draw 3 tokens. Obviously a wild, but educated, guess. That works out to an average number of 5 draws per player.

And with Origins being a repeat of GenCon, I'm guessing, if the runs all sell out, it will be significantly more novice players rather than veterans.

I am stocking up on fleeces since I have a ton of transmutes coming up with them.

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: People keep saying "but the player base is increasing!"

I don't think this can stem the tide.

Every 70 treasure pulls produces a Golden Fleece.

The false assumption is that every trophy turns to Fleece. Granted that was (mostly) true in the past, but there have always been recipes that set the floor price of a bit to 300gp.

So long as gold doesn't hit zero, then neither will bits (or Fleece.)

You're right. It won't go to zero.

However so long as more are generated in treasure than consumed by recipes, the price will decline.

All I'm trying to establish here is that:

* The supply of monster ingredients is now going to be substantially higher than in the past
* The increase is out of proportion with all other trade items (because all other trade items are not treasure only),
* Right now almost nothing consumes these as a recipe
* If nothing is done, the value of monster ingredients / fleece will decline, likely in a precipitous manner

If anyone disagrees with this, then I'd be happy to sell you options to buy fleece from me at $60 a piece in 2 years, conditional on there not being a new announcement of an Relic or higher recipe that requires monster bits, or a radical change to how treasure and/or monster bits are distributed for $3 today. If you think the price of Fleece will remain above $63 under those conditions, it's like I'm giving money away!

James J Krot wrote: I am stocking up on fleeces since I have a ton of transmutes coming up with them.

This confuses me.

The only things that take Fleece in their recipe are legendaries.

Do you have a ton of legendaries in your transmute pipeline?