TOPIC: Token Draw Happiness

I would love to run as a base character slowly building myself back up again! I feel like it could really revitalize the enjoyment of the game I had in the first few years of TD! Lately it's gotten to just become finding ways of getting increasingly more powerful (often unnecessarily because we run through dungeons without problems as is). A "fresh" start character building himself up as you run through the story arc is a great idea that I would 100% be down for!

Matt wrote: Lot of people on the forums didnt care for the lenses of fortune. Again we formites are a skewed minority of the playerbase. I met some lvl 8 players who religiously track xp but have never touched the forums.

I agree and appreciate you pointing out how sometimes a rare can make a big difference in feel for a player. I've gotten decent stuff as I've saved and traded slowly up to get my treasure enhancers finally.

Good luck and hope you stick around.

I'm sure they were less than popular with people who already have better lens choices (and even better treasure enhancers that the LoF would negate). As I lacked both, it seemed like a simple way to double my treasure (from 1 to 2! :-P ). I'm now aware that situation has changed, but it's still quite the disparity.

And I entirely agree about the forumites needing to respect that while the game system might encourage creating an account and logging in at least once, I've read of game companies that had a shocking minority (sub 1%) that participated in their online forums. It can be a trap to assume that ones experiences and those of the other regulars with thousands of posts and dozens or hundreds of runs are the norm. Some of us folks heard about it, gushed about it, tried it, and enjoyed it... but missed out on a lot of the "drawing a giant handful of treasure and making it RAIN" that I see post Gencon here.

Note, I'm not trying to make people feel *bad*. They spent years and hundreds or thousands of dollars accruing those tokens, put 'em to use! But... do remember us little folks too.

I pop in now and then. As I noted earlier, I'd like to hit up Gencon for a run or two (finances and ticket availability pending), I'm down for coming back. But it definitely wouldn't be with +14 treasure tokens or whatever the current cap is.

Appreciate the shout out, hopefully we stumble across each other in a run or the lobby sometime!

Forar: Remember to poke back around when event catalog is posted up. That's when a lot of will start trying to get tentative groups together for runs/ticket buys.

I had a couple of lenses and that was the token my running mates where very appreciate to borrow (they play but buy zero tokens and instead raid my tackleboxes). The extra pull meant something to them. They've played 3 years but buy zero tokens and have zero interest in forum. The silent majority is something we need to keep eye on.

kurtreznor wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

persolo wrote: 31 pulls.

The most notable were a Bloodless, a CLoak of Blending (which both were sold so I had a little moneyt o spend in the dealer's hall), 8 monster bits..and I think 400GP.

I was pretty happy with that, given I"d not pulled a UR since a Boots of Might my first year way back when.

Congratulations, a UR per about every 15 pulls is amazing!

Treasure pulls felt like they ran extremely hot or cold. Some people were pulling multiple special tokens in 10-15 draws vs others pulling nothing but uncommon and rares with a couple monster bits. It made me wonder if the buckets didn't get mixed up enough.

The streaks are indicative of actual randomness.


Also in my coaching, I think the average is closer to 5. Many folks draw just 3 a large chunk draw 4 because of the lenses. After that you get the big fish and they bring up the average.

valetutto wrote:

kurtreznor wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

persolo wrote: 31 pulls.

The most notable were a Bloodless, a CLoak of Blending (which both were sold so I had a little moneyt o spend in the dealer's hall), 8 monster bits..and I think 400GP.

I was pretty happy with that, given I"d not pulled a UR since a Boots of Might my first year way back when.

Congratulations, a UR per about every 15 pulls is amazing!

Treasure pulls felt like they ran extremely hot or cold. Some people were pulling multiple special tokens in 10-15 draws vs others pulling nothing but uncommon and rares with a couple monster bits. It made me wonder if the buckets didn't get mixed up enough.

The streaks are indicative of actual randomness.

Ehhh... yes and no. Too hot and cold is a sign it's not uniform at random.

I agree the treasure pulls are _indifferent_ (no way to know if you're in a hot or cold part), but my experience this year makes me think they are lumpy / non-uniformly distributed, and indeed there are hot and cold parts that are hotter and colder than a uniform random distribution would generate.

For example, sitting at the top of one of my 40 token bags were 4 monster trophies, all stacked on top of each other, all facing the same direction. The odds of hitting a run like that given 15% monster trophies are around 1/15,800.

Could it have happened by chance in a uniformly random distribution?

Yes!

Which hypothesis is better supported by this occurrence:
a. Monster trophies were mixed in uniformly at random, or:
b. Monster trophies were chucked into a mixer by the sleeve and didn't get perfectly distributed.

b!

I saw someone open a 50 chip bag around noon on Thursday. They had 6 of the Lava Nugget and no other bits. Random yes? Statistically rare? Probably. Upside was they did get a relic Plate

Matthew Hayward wrote:

valetutto wrote:

kurtreznor wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

persolo wrote: 31 pulls.

The most notable were a Bloodless, a CLoak of Blending (which both were sold so I had a little moneyt o spend in the dealer's hall), 8 monster bits..and I think 400GP.

I was pretty happy with that, given I"d not pulled a UR since a Boots of Might my first year way back when.

Congratulations, a UR per about every 15 pulls is amazing!

Treasure pulls felt like they ran extremely hot or cold. Some people were pulling multiple special tokens in 10-15 draws vs others pulling nothing but uncommon and rares with a couple monster bits. It made me wonder if the buckets didn't get mixed up enough.

The streaks are indicative of actual randomness.

Ehhh... yes and no. Too hot and cold is a sign it's not uniform at random.

I agree the treasure pulls are _indifferent_ (no way to know if you're in a hot or cold part), but my experience this year makes me think they are lumpy / non-uniformly distributed, and indeed there are hot and cold parts that are hotter and colder than a uniform random distribution would generate.

For example, sitting at the top of one of my 40 token bags were 4 monster trophies, all stacked on top of each other, all facing the same direction. The odds of hitting a run like that given 15% monster trophies are around 1/15,800.

Could it have happened by chance in a uniformly random distribution?

Yes!

Which hypothesis is better supported by this occurrence:
a. Monster trophies were mixed in uniformly at random, or:
b. Monster trophies were chucked into a mixer by the sleeve and didn't get perfectly distributed.

b!

I think you are using an incorrect monster trophy number though. I believe it was 20%. This is base on 878 draws for 174 monster bits. Granted I don't know that number is correct but it is best one I have to go on.

jedibcg wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: For example, sitting at the top of one of my 40 token bags were 4 monster trophies, all stacked on top of each other, all facing the same direction. The odds of hitting a run like that given 15% monster trophies are around 1/15,800.

I think you are using an incorrect monster trophy number though. I believe it was 20%. This is base on 878 draws for 174 monster bits. Granted I don't know that number is correct but it is best one I have to go on.

Thanks - you've got much better data than me on that.

Then the odds would be 1/5000.

Brad Mortensen wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Joshua Baessler wrote:

Kerrik wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

balthasar wrote: Well, assuming there are 8000 or so players, what would you assume the average treasure draw is going to be? Just going to use 8 per player, so that would be 64K tokens in the treasure boxes. One percent of that would be 640 tokens that would be comprised of URs and better stuff. Now that 8 average is just number I am assuming, which I honestly think it should be higher.

I know I beat the average with my pulls, which most likely means someone else had less luck. If the boxes remain the same, I am sure that will even out over the years.

I'd guess the average token draw is less than 8. 16 (or 17 with 6th Level) is the max (without artifacts), and I'd guess that the vast majority of players are just drawing their basic 3 tokens. I'd think that would pull the average draw below the 8 level.

That 8 per player figure is accurate if the party consists of nine new players and one very greedy token-aholic, like a situation I observed while coaching one of my runs.

The token-aholic had 10 Charms of Avarice to provide to the party.
Others with such extra CoA are generous and usually provide them to their party for free and are happy with the +2 treasure pulls that this allows them.

This one token-aholic made a deal with his party to let them borrow his 9 extra CoA in exchange for HALF of all of their treasure pulls. So not only did he get his extra +2 treasure pulls, but his party donated to the rich man another +72 treasure pulls. So, yes, each of the players in this party averaged 8 treasure pulls instead of 3.

I almost said something to the new players. Maybe I should have.

Why would you have? The new players got 5 additional pulls for no effort on their part - that's more than most of the URTEs alone. I've seen just as many veterans loan out their gear for nothing as I have those that worked out similar types of deals, and in both cases the new players were happy. Not once have I heard anyone complain that they felt they were getting a raw deal.

It is not like that player whomever he or she is is not getting something for the use of the CoA's. Though as someone working for TD (in a volunteer function) it might not have been appropriate for you to say anything. Had I been it the party though I would have said something and loant out the use of my 10 CoA to everyone else. I admit I have been invited on runs for free just because folks know I have 10 CoA's and 10 CoS that I will loan out (and I hope they like running with me). Maybe 72 treasure is equal to or less than a $56 ticket but it just doesn't feel right to me.

On the other hand, a player with 10 CoAs has $10-12,000 tied up in those tokens. At $3/treasure, and taking 8 chips, they have to lend out a CoA something like 40-50 times to recoup that.

They could just lend out CoGFs instead at a fraction of the investment for the same two-chip bump to their draws, and the newbies would only get 7 chips instead of 8, even if the patron charged them nothing.

I don't see anything wrong with lending loot tokens, or with charging the borrowing player something for the privilege. They can always just say no and keep their three.

I payed with Master Ed, who gave us this deal. Those of us with AoTF had to give less.
Everyone benefits.
I can't imagine a player saying no to using a CoA .
Everyone benefits. The owner gets half, which seems completely fair to me.
I am now building my own CoA, but if someone lent out 8 CoA to the rest of the party or CoGF, I would still.give them 1 of the 2 bonus tokens I got for their lending to others just because they made it possible.
If I only got one bonus token from them, I wod offer them a coin flip or roll off for that one bonus.

jedibcg wrote: I know lots of players just build up from the starter pack they started with. If so then a rare weapon is really good because you probably started with a common.

If I had core group that I could trust to do it. It might be fun to do a variant of sealed. Start when the story arc starts run with the same 9 other people for an entire arc and the only tokens you get are your original starting 10 and the treasure you pull. You cannot do use any other starter packs from the other adventures you run. You can make it greedy because people like to pull tokens, but only the first 3 tokens pulls count towards building your character. You could trade tokens amongst your group. Plan would be to do normal year one, hardcore year two and nightmare year 3. If you die you are out of the group, unless someone did pull something to bring you back. I think it would be fun, but maybe its just me.

This sounds really fun to me as well. I am not sure going up each year is right, but it could be a fun challenge.

Wade Schwendemann wrote:

jedibcg wrote: I know lots of players just build up from the starter pack they started with. If so then a rare weapon is really good because you probably started with a common.

If I had core group that I could trust to do it. It might be fun to do a variant of sealed. Start when the story arc starts run with the same 9 other people for an entire arc and the only tokens you get are your original starting 10 and the treasure you pull. You cannot do use any other starter packs from the other adventures you run. You can make it greedy because people like to pull tokens, but only the first 3 tokens pulls count towards building your character. You could trade tokens amongst your group. Plan would be to do normal year one, hardcore year two and nightmare year 3. If you die you are out of the group, unless someone did pull something to bring you back. I think it would be fun, but maybe its just me.

This sounds really fun to me as well. I am not sure going up each year is right, but it could be a fun challenge.

I guess it would depend on the group, pulls and starter packs.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: For example, sitting at the top of one of my 40 token bags were 4 monster trophies, all stacked on top of each other, all facing the same direction. The odds of hitting a run like that given 15% monster trophies are around 1/15,800.

I think you are using an incorrect monster trophy number though. I believe it was 20%. This is base on 878 draws for 174 monster bits. Granted I don't know that number is correct but it is best one I have to go on.

Thanks - you've got much better data than me on that.

Then the odds would be 1/5000.

I was about 13% from about 215 draws.