TOPIC: Supreme Orb of Dragonkind

Interesting insight into the mechanics & numbers behind a large-scale buyer/re-seller, Kirk.

Thanks for sharing.

Raven wrote: Interesting insight into the mechanics & numbers behind a large-scale buyer/re-seller, Kirk.

Thanks for sharing.

+1. As someone who buys/trades both through TD themselves and with re-sellers, I'm glad to have another viewpoint.

I wanted to chime in as a newer player whom really got into TD last year.

First off, any game/hobby (whatever you want to call it) will go stale if you don't continue to make upgrades such as this new bonus Orb token. I don't have a problem with it at all. YOu have to keep things fresh. And like any game, the shiny new toys will always go to those that spend more. Just the way it is really.


I will say I'm not really sure they needed to be handed out to the big spenders for past spending though. Isn't that what the Wish Ring and Onyx sets were for?
With the new 8K package, the inclusion of this token should be the new incentive and "thank you".
As it is, Kirk and Lazlo already talked about how they are testing the market on this thing. I'm not a fan of being given something so many others would want, only to just turn around and sell it and "test the market".
No offense guys. I don't blame you, but I don't agree with this particular token sent as a "gift" when it so easily is turned around for some type of add-on profit.
I digress...


I will say I would like it if my token package purchases were cummulative from year to year (if not done so already). I don't think it is unreasonable to ask for this so that those of us that are not big spenders can still have hope to eventually create a Leagendary.
In my case it may take anywhere from 4-8 years to get just one Wish Ring in this manner. Last year I spent 2K and might look for a 1K this year.


Just my two cents.

DrStupid v1.0 wrote: As it is, Kirk and Lazlo already talked about how they are testing the market on this thing. I'm not a fan of being given something so many others would want, only to just turn around and sell it and "test the market".
No offense guys. I don't blame you, but I don't agree with this particular token sent as a "gift" when it so easily is turned around for some type of add-on profit.

If I had only received one of these tokens I definitely wouldn't have sold it. But I did receive a few so it seems reasonable to offer some to others rather than hoarding them all. Also there was discussion about what the value of the token is and I believe a forum auction is the best way to answer that question (not knowing at the time that Lazlo had also listed one on eBay).

I understand what you are saying though. Perhaps there are other things I could/should do with them, but I'm about to make quite a few purchases from TD during pre-orders and definitely have been in the mode of raising funds for that so it makes the most sense for me. Don't worry the money goes right back to Jeff as always

So, Kirk's auction is at $355, and Lazlo's $320 (it has more time to go). Let's say they get to $400... x8 would be $3200. (Actually more than that, considering the Time Value of Money .)

My question is, will the final combined token be worth $3200? That seems highly dubious to me, if the token is indeed a "for fun" effect, rather than an uber-powerful one. But, I know there are people out there who want to collect everything, and this one is going to be quite rare, so I suppose it's possible.

I admit I am tempted by the possibilities with this token, and I would like to have it. However, it is probably more prudent to wait and see.

Kirk Bauer wrote:

DrStupid v1.0 wrote: As it is, Kirk and Lazlo already talked about how they are testing the market on this thing. I'm not a fan of being given something so many others would want, only to just turn around and sell it and "test the market".
No offense guys. I don't blame you, but I don't agree with this particular token sent as a "gift" when it so easily is turned around for some type of add-on profit.

If I had only received one of these tokens I definitely wouldn't have sold it. But I did receive a few so it seems reasonable to offer some to others rather than hoarding them all. Also there was discussion about what the value of the token is and I believe a forum auction is the best way to answer that question (not knowing at the time that Lazlo had also listed one on eBay).

I understand what you are saying though. Perhaps there are other things I could/should do with them, but I'm about to make quite a few purchases from TD during pre-orders and definitely have been in the mode of raising funds for that so it makes the most sense for me. Don't worry the money goes right back to Jeff as always

Since Laz & Kirk are selling at the beginning, it would appear that I'll take the long term. I'll look at trading my three extra hatchlings down the road, to help fill other's token deficit to transmute. We'll see how the market bears in the mean time? Good luck Laz & Kirk. Now, Matt gets to look at his business situation!

Hey Kirk, that actually makes it worse when you say you've received multiple copies of them.
To hand out something so new, and in multiples, I don't agree with. If Jeff wants to send out a gift, I'm sure there are plenty of existing tokens of various rarity he can pass out instead.

Now once you do have them, I don't blame you for how you handle them. They're yours to do with as you please. And though I am like anyone else and would like to own them, I can already see where the value is going and won't participate in seeking them.

Good luck to you and anyone else in selling them, or however you choose to part with them.


Again, I would just hope my perspective on availability of the Wish Ring through cummulative purchases over time would be considered.

Mr DrStupid,

The 2015 ones were definitely a surprise for me and everybody else but going forward it is clear that you get one for each $8k order. So it is expected that the more $8k orders somebody buys the more Orbs they will receive. Because that's the policy for 2016 and onward I don't see a problem with it being applied retroactively to 2015 as well.

The opposite would have been a problem, if Jeff gave them to people for spending at least $8k but limited them to one per person then the number of 2015 orbs would end up being much lower than future years. It also makes sense that if somebody spent say $32k/yr for 8 ears starting in 2015 that they would have four from each year. But perhaps my perspective would be different had I not purchased multiple $8k orders in 2015.

Finally, I would also like to see the ability to span $8k bonuses over multiple years. I suspect it doesn't happen because Jeff tracks this manually right now (from what I can tell) so it would get complicated. It would be cool if he could add it to the store software so it would track your purchases and automatically give you free bonuses for each $8k you hit (or whatever).

Jeff321 wrote: So, Kirk's auction is at $355, and Lazlo's $320 (it has more time to go). Let's say they get to $400... x8 would be $3200. (Actually more than that, considering the Time Value of Money .)

My question is, will the final combined token be worth $3200? That seems highly dubious to me, if the token is indeed a "for fun" effect, rather than an uber-powerful one. But, I know there are people out there who want to collect everything, and this one is going to be quite rare, so I suppose it's possible.

I admit I am tempted by the possibilities with this token, and I would like to have it. However, it is probably more prudent to wait and see.

not going to lie,
this is probably the only one i sell this year

Kirk,

I'm sure there are aspects I am not aware of. I was just adding my voice to the discussion.
Honestly I don't have a horse in this race. I won't be picking up a 8K order anytime soon, and won't be pursuing these Dragonkind Orbs so i'm really upset or anything. Just thought to lend my opinion.

And I can see how the year-after-year tracking might not be that easy. Hopefully Jeff will pick up on this aspect...and take into account my 2014/2015 spending

Kirk Bauer wrote: Also I can't speak for other resellers but for me at least I do this completely legitimately, which means I get to calculate my profit each year and pay income taxes on that profit. Now what many people probably don't realize is that even for small businesses the IRS requires the COGS (cost of goods sold) to be done an an accrual basis. This means that profit/loss isn't as straightforward as it might appear.

So, for example, let's say that I buy a $8k order and sell half of the tokens for $5k after expenses. Did I make a profit or a loss? Even though I end the year with $3k less than I started with, in reality I made a $1k profit and have $4k in end-of-year inventory. So then I pay taxes on that $1k which in my case is about $500, so in this scenario I would have ended the year with $3500 less cash than I started with but theoretically $4000 in inventory. So to make any real money legitimately you have to invest quite a bit into it and it will take years to actually generate positive cash-flow, if ever.

Kirk, you and I have talked about this in great length before
Kirk is right, if you are doing this legitimately, This is at best a break-even scenario. Profit margins on token reselling, are 10% or less which is essentially non-existent. You can potentially wind up in a situation where, even if you didn't sell anything, due to token purchases and COGS you owe taxes on inventory value.

There are certain tax breaks that running a small business can get everyone, but that too comes with risks, as you have to legitimately have to be trying to make a profit. Otherwise the IRS comes-a-knocking.

I'll back Kirk up, he has done his math, no one is making oodles of money doing this. Not unless they are cooking their books, or operating at such a high volume that they are taking up 70-80% of annual aftermarket sales. [Edit] Or holding onto the long-term transmute items for multiple years. That is another way that it *could* be profitable, however, that is pretty risky with reprints etc. Not to mention, ROI. a seven year wait to sell a $90 PYP for $300 isn't exactly a windfall.

Kirk Bauer wrote: Finally, I would also like to see the ability to span $8k bonuses over multiple years. I suspect it doesn't happen because Jeff tracks this manually right now (from what I can tell) so it would get complicated. It would be cool if he could add it to the store software so it would track your purchases and automatically give you free bonuses for each $8k you hit (or whatever).

I would be a big fan, having missed getting an orb by an order or two