TOPIC: 2014 Treasure Pulls

bpsymington wrote:

Harlax wrote: I guess we are all still kind of spoiled from last years bonanza.

Not "all."

I'm right there with you. Our party didn't hear about the 2013 gear bonanza until after Gencon that year. To make matters worse, Pulls of ingredients were few and far between out of the other box.

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: *ponders* why would that ever happen?
They have the information on theoretical treasure pull per run. If they did recycle activated tokens that's really really shitty as it completely throws off the numbers.

It should not happen but it has in the past. I hope it no longer happens.

In the past there have also been occasions when they needed to "reconstitute" or "recycle" tokens to create starting packs. That has been the exception (not the rule). They probably don't do any more but I don't know for sure.

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote:

bpsymington wrote: I was on a a run with Druegar, and he pulled a 1000 gp bar right ahead of me.

another person pulls something good in front of you.
That sucks

Naw, I was psyched for him.

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: with 100 pulls I am OK not getting 1 special token at 1%
at 150 pulls I suspect the 1%
at 400 pulls statistics say your 1% is bullshit.

At 400, it would still not reach statistical significance that you didn't pull one, not when the expected ratio is 1 in 100.

I worked the epilogue room. Saw a first time player pull 10k token.

A lot of new players thought the monster bits were stupid and wanted gear. We were telling them to go out front and trade the buts for gear.

Over the course of the entire GenCon my group pull approximately 400 pulls.
The numbers I have after 2 runs are the following:
129 Rares
121 Uncommons
40 monster trophies (there seems to be an unknown missing here)
1 UR Viper Belt.
Our third run data didn't get saved correctly so not certain what it had.
The fourth and final run tokens are still not in my bag not yet sorted.

Edit:
Last run
42 Rares
34 Uncommons
? Gold
24 Monster bits.

Out of the 400ish pulls only 1 of the 1%. Yes it was an UR but nothing else. No transmutes, no gold above a rare. We had some pretty bad odds. We ended with 98 Monsters bits though.

henwy wrote:

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: with 100 pulls I am OK not getting 1 special token at 1%
at 150 pulls I suspect the 1%
at 400 pulls statistics say your 1% is bullshit.

At 400, it would still not reach statistical significance that you didn't pull one, not when the expected ratio is 1 in 100.

I do believe that any completion tokens you pulled are considered 'other', so you may gotten some from two to three years ago and sorted them into the rare/uncommon piles.

henwy wrote:

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: with 100 pulls I am OK not getting 1 special token at 1%
at 150 pulls I suspect the 1%
at 400 pulls statistics say your 1% is bullshit.

At 400, it would still not reach statistical significance that you didn't pull one, not when the expected ratio is 1 in 100.

0.99 to the 400th power is about .0179, so it's outside a 95% confidence interval. The odds of not getting a special in 400 pulls are about the same as the odds of getting one in only 2 pulls.

As for me personally, I got 50% monster bits, 25% uncommons, and 25% rares, but as I had a sample size of four, that's probably not very relevant.

As noted above, it is important to remember that "special" =/= UR and up (relic, big GP, etc)

I had over 100 pulls. I pulled something "special." It was Boots of the Marauder.

I know that 1% does not have to equal UR. I didn't get anything besides 1 UR, Rares, Uncommons, and Monster Bits in 400ish pulls. I know it can happen same as someone can get a special in 3 pulls (my first time playing many years ago). Just stating that the 1% seemed lower this year but only based on my pulls.

Raven wrote: As noted above, it is important to remember that "special" =/= UR and up (relic, big GP, etc)

I had over 100 pulls. I pulled something "special." It was Boots of the Marauder.

Sadly I'm talking over 150 pulls and nothing. Not a low level transmute, not a completion token. Just monster bits, UC and R tokens.

Just sucks is all

Allen John wrote:

henwy wrote:

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: with 100 pulls I am OK not getting 1 special token at 1%
at 150 pulls I suspect the 1%
at 400 pulls statistics say your 1% is bullshit.

At 400, it would still not reach statistical significance that you didn't pull one, not when the expected ratio is 1 in 100.

0.99 to the 400th power is about .0179, so it's outside a 95% confidence interval. The odds of not getting a special in 400 pulls are about the same as the odds of getting one in only 2 pulls.

As for me personally, I got 50% monster bits, 25% uncommons, and 25% rares, but as I had a sample size of four, that's probably not very relevant.

Actually, that is the probability of getting one and only one UR. To reach 95% confidence you need to account for the probabilities of getting more than one. For 400, the most likely outcome would be 4 UR's. As a general rule you would need to sample enough to expect at least 5 UR's before you could have confidence that the ratio is off. That would be 500-600. That also assumes the UR's are evenly distributed. All it takes is one lucky person to pull 1 or 2 and the ratios will be off.

None of these statistics help anyone to be ok with missing out on expected pulls. I understand very well about disappointing treasure pulls, but it happens.