TOPIC: 2014 Treasure Pulls

Harlax wrote: In my rares were three 200 gp tokens. There may have been some in the uncommons, but I really didn't pay much attention to that.

I pulled quite a few rare gold tokens as well. Total of 650 gold. That one was easy to figure out because I know I didn't get any rare gold on the run packs. I'm betting I got 800 in gold counting uncommon pulls.

Kaledor wrote: 1x 25,000 Bar

Wow, that's probably the best 1% pull you could have got, and there was only one in the whole treasure pool.

I think I pulled two of the 1% tokens out of somewhere around 75 pulls which is very lucky. Unfortunately they were Boots of the Marauder and Oil of Deadly Venom... nothing like a 25k bar!

My son and I went on the Saturday night sealed Pack run. We had 10 RoR, 10 CoGF, and 9 HOPs. We got 2 stamps on each run. That is 252 treasure pulls for the two runs. Not a single special pull (one person did pull a gloves of glory token in his sealed pack).

My son and I had a total of 115 treasure pulls on our own and not a single special. I understand the probability, and explained about the token distribution to him. He got it, but was still sad when the last pull was not something special.

I know that last year was special, but 1% chance of something special seems low to me.

We had just over 102 pulls and got
- 12 monster bits
- 52 uncommons
- 37 rares
- 1 special (1,000 GP gold bar)

367 token pulls without a single special token seems to disagree with the listed 1% chance.

I had over 150 pulls for my team and also failed to get a single special token out of it.

I heard last year was heavily dotted with gear but with the combined pulls of over 400 tokens and no special between us it makes me think the rates weren't accurate.

Phadras wrote: My son and I went on the Saturday night sealed Pack run. We had 10 RoR, 10 CoGF, and 9 HOPs. We got 2 stamps on each run. That is 252 treasure pulls for the two runs. Not a single special pull (one person did pull a gloves of glory token in his sealed pack).

My son and I had a total of 115 treasure pulls on our own and not a single special. I understand the probability, and explained about the token distribution to him. He got it, but was still sad when the last pull was not something special.

I know that last year was special, but 1% chance of something special seems low to me.

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: I heard last year was heavily dotted with gear but with the combined pulls of over 400 tokens and no special between us it makes me think the rates weren't accurate.

It is also unknown whether some of the restocking was from "recycled" tokens that were recently used as opposed to the "mixed batch" that was prepared beforehand.

For example, I saw an awful lot of certain consumables (such as Venom Runestones). The type that players would commonly use (and that could be used to refill the treasure generators quickly if needed).

Ended up with 13 monster trophies in 35 pulls. Majority of pulls were rares. No specials.

Incognito wrote:

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: I heard last year was heavily dotted with gear but with the combined pulls of over 400 tokens and no special between us it makes me think the rates weren't accurate.

It is also unknown whether some of the restocking was from "recycled" tokens that were recently used as opposed to the "mixed batch" that was prepared beforehand.

For example, I saw an awful lot of certain consumables (such as Venom Runestones). The type that players would commonly use (and that could be used to refill the treasure generators quickly if needed).

*ponders* why would that ever happen?
They have the information on theoretical treasure pull per run. If they did recycle activated tokens that's really really shitty as it completely throws off the numbers.

My Sunday pulls were better than my Thursday pulls. Monster bits were about the same percentage both days, but I had a better split between uncommons and rares.

Remember, each pull is an independent event. Play with the token generator sometime and see how often 100 rolls does not produce a UR.

And remember all the factors I listed above. The distribution in a specific box at a specific moment most likely varied. No way to know to what extent, but we were experiencing several layers of randomness which made "expectation" an unreliable guide to outcome.

I considered spacing my pulls out among different locations and times, but in the end I just pulled in whatever epilogue room I was in. Honestly, anything else was too much effort for speculative reward.

I was on a a run with Druegar, and he pulled a 1000 gp bar right ahead of me.

with 100 pulls I am OK not getting 1 special token at 1%
at 150 pulls I suspect the 1%
at 400 pulls statistics say your 1% is bullshit.

bpsymington wrote: I was on a a run with Druegar, and he pulled a 1000 gp bar right ahead of me.

another person pulls something good in front of you.
That sucks