TOPIC: April 14 Ultra Rares

I feel like it'd be better for Druids than wizards in a short dungeon because it'd add damage to their best spells, whereas for a wizard it adds to our lower level spells that we won't necessarily cast many of if we don't start running low. In a longer dungeon I imagine it's pretty even.

Of course, as Endgame has brought up and isn't brought up enough, what is the opportunity cost?

Opportunity cost at high end for so many slots is rather vast. If you are running Relsa's and Muk's, going to run this as third ring? Replace one of those?

But, then, could argue that comparing URs to legendaries isn't fair. If had a pure UR build, what three rings going to run with druids? Quick Blessing for burst damage. This for big numbers. And?

Then, is there some way to determine how hard the skill tests are?

A very brief Druid analysis.

At the highest end builds, Savant is basically impossible to abuse combined with the ring of quick blessing, as Relsa’s would need to be dropped to equip savant.

For lower end builds:

First, Savant is of minimal damage use to a relic level Druid that is Poly + spells. Ring of the Drake would pay off more damage wise over a run.

A Druid that is primarily poly for attacks but spell swaps all spells to Healing outside of combat could get 9 Healing spells. Equipping Savant reduces combat effectiveness for Healing - this is probably ok.

For a spell only Druid that does not equip spell swapping, it’s worth 5 Focus if the Druid Misses no skill checks. Each missed skill check drops the damage effectiveness approximately .7 Focus.

In the case of using Spell swapping, savant loses .5 Focus per missed skill check.

In short and medium runs where a UR level Druid passes all but 1 skill check, it’s very powerful and worth about 4.5 Focus. In long runs, a Druid runs out of spells barring a few pieces of equipment. I’m not sure how to weigh that

Endgame wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: ]
I'm saying it's far better than a +2 Ring of Focus for a Wizard. It has the potential to add far more total damage in a Dungeon.

Ah, then you would be mistaken and might want to review the numbers. In a short combat dungeon, +2 Focus is better. In a medium dungeon, it’s basically a draw. In a long dungeon, Savant is better.

Given this build:
tdcharactercreator.com/#/character/edit/6ea68f32-d7d1-4f0c-b31e-a7e7373cc87d

expected Damage:
Replace jealous fever with Savant;
very short dungeon: 201 damage
medium dungeon: 250 damage
very long dungeon: 322 damage

Replace jealous fervor with Havoc:
very short dungeon: 203 damage
medium dungeon: 248 damage
very long dungeon: 317 damage

Replace belt with Deadshot belt:
very short dungeon: 217 damage
Medium dungeon: 266 damage
Very Long dungeon: 335 damage

More detailed analysis here:
truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=686&id=254427&start=72#425242

I read the analysis, but I see the situation differently.

A Wizard has 14 damage spells, and 10 of them have skill checks.

From a total additional damage point of view, a Ring of Havoc (or a +2 Ring of Focus) can add 28 points of damage (2 points per spell). Savant can add 50 points of damage (5 for each skill check spell). Savant is nearly twice as good.

In a Dungeon with just 3 combat rooms, and in which each combat lasts just two rounds, six spells are cast. I think nearly all Dungeons for most groups will have more than 6 total rounds of combat, but just for the sake of analysis, we'll look at this. If Havok/+2 Ring of Focus is used, it will add +12 damage. Even if 3 of the 5 spells are the top three without skill checks, Savant can still add +15 damage, and is 25% better.

In a combat heavy dungeon (4 combat rooms) and still looking at the "short dungeon" scenario of just 2 combat rounds per room, the Wizard casts 8 spells. Havok/+2 RoF would add 16 points of damage. Savant potentially adds 20 points of damage, or 25% more than Havoc/+2 RoF.

In a "medium" Dungeon with just 3 combat rooms, where each goes 3 rounds, the Wizard casts 9 spells (average length of Dungeon). This seems like a much more realistic scenario for many groups. Assuming the Wizard casts all four non-skill check spells in this scenario (the worst case for Savant). Havok/+2 RoF adds 18 points of damage in this scenario, and Savant potentially adds 25 points of damage, which is 38.9% better.

The Medium dungeon scenario (3 rounds per combat room) and four combat rooms, the Wizard can cast 12 damage spells. Havoc/+2 RoF adds +24 points of damage. Assuming all four non-skill check spells are cast, Savant potentially adds 40 points of damage, 66.6% better than Havoc/+2 RoF.

The Long Dungeon scenario (4 rounds of combat per room) and 3 combat rooms, the Wizard casts 9 spells (average length of Dungeon). This seems like a much more realistic scenario for many groups. Assuming the Wizard casts all four non-skill check spells in this scenario (the worst case for Savant). Havok/+2 RoF adds 18 points of damage in this scenario, and Savant potentially adds 25 points of damage, which is 38.9% better.

Long Dungeon Scenario (4 rounds of combat per room) and four combat rooms, all 14 damage spells are used (and 2 more could have been cast). a Ring of Havoc (or a +2 Ring of Focus) can add 28 points of damage (2 points per spell). Savant can add 50 points of damage (5 for each skill check spell). Savant is 78% better.

SUMMARY / TLDR: Savant is significantly better than Havoc/+2 RoF in Short, Medium, and Long Dungeon scenarios, from 25% better to 78% better. It should be no more than +4 damage, it is overpowered at +5 damage.

Short Dungeon Scenario (2 rounds per combat room), Savant is 25% better in both 3 and 4 combat rooms per Dungeon.

Medium Dungeon (3 rounds per combat room) 3 Combat rooms Savant is 38.9% better, and 4 combat rooms Savant is 66.6% better

Long Dungeon (4 rounds per combat room) 3 combat rooms Savant is 38.9% better, and 4 combat rooms Savant is 78% better.

You're assuming here that the wizard is going to make 100% of their skill checks. I don't think that's a fair assumption for all or even most wizards. Even experienced wizards mess it up sometimes. You miss even one and those numbers start to look a lot more even. You miss two and savant loses a good chunk of the time.

I also can't remember ever playing 16 combat rounds in a dungeon, pretty much ever. That's a metric ton of combat, and not at all a realistic scenario.

Another thing to think about is during the long dungeon scenario if you assume the Wizard is performing skill checks I think it good to assume all players who can do them are too. Thus leading to fewer rounds of combat with time wasted for each player to perform their checks likely not leading to 4 rounds of combat per room available.

Josh M. wrote: You're assuming here that the wizard is going to make 100% of their skill checks. I don't think that's a fair assumption for all or even most wizards. Even experienced wizards mess it up sometimes. You miss even one and those numbers start to look a lot more even. You miss two and savant loses a good chunk of the time.

I also can't remember ever playing 16 combat rounds in a dungeon, pretty much ever. That's a metric ton of combat, and not at all a realistic scenario.

If skill checks were always 100%, I'd recommend Savant be reduced to +3. Since they aren't always 100%, +4 seems reasonable, even though still probably overpowered. I think this analysis shows that +5 is way too high.

Josh M. wrote: You're assuming here that the wizard is going to make 100% of their skill checks. I don't think that's a fair assumption for all or even most wizards. Even experienced wizards mess it up sometimes. You miss even one and those numbers start to look a lot more even. You miss two and savant loses a good chunk of the time.

I also can't remember ever playing 16 combat rounds in a dungeon, pretty much ever. That's a metric ton of combat, and not at all a realistic scenario.

The Wizard spell checks are the easiest spell checks in that the you can use the spell check location as a memory aid. A Wizard with a few runs under the belt, probably gets them all right.

But and these are an important distinction: Skill checks take time and this item needs to be powerful enough to make taking time worth it. If you are going to slow down the party there should be a good reward. This should be better than a regular UR in the slot.

I agree that 16 rounds feels too many for a full group. 12 feels closer in my experience.

Regarding Savant, I think +5 is a fantastic incentive to make skill checks relevant again, but +4 also feels acceptable. It should absolutely be better than a comparable focus or damage ring because of the time and effort it takes to learn and guess those checks. Rewarding engagement is good! Many folks aren’t going to use this ring no matter what its bonus is because they don’t play any single class enough to memorize those checks.

Mike Steele wrote: If skill checks were always 100%, I'd recommend Savant be reduced to +3. Since they aren't always 100%, +4 seems reasonable, even though still probably overpowered. I think this analysis shows that +5 is way too high.

If skill checks aren't 100% why are you doing your analysis at 100%? You should be using realistic numbers to show what is likely to happen, not edge cases doing ridiculously frequent combat that no one will ever do. If we're doing that can just as easily say that the wizard is going to pass 0 skill checks, making the havoc ring infinity% better. An item like this is going to be swingy.

At a reasonable 10 rounds of combat with a wizard blowing one skill check the savant ring adds 25 damage, the havoc ring adds 20. Is the savant ring better? Sure, but you're also taking more time from your party to do it and you're risking doing less damage overall if you don't make the skill checks. Savant ring needs to be better. Drop the bonus to 4 and they're even, which makes savant ring be worse since you're taking up more time and taking a chance in doing even less damage.

OrionW wrote: The Wizard spell checks are the easiest spell checks in that the you can use the spell check location as a memory aid. A Wizard with a few runs under the belt, probably gets them all right.

I've done 63 runs, the vast majority of them as a wizard. I still blow skill checks occasionally. It's easy to do when there's a lot going on and you're rushing because you don't want to hold the party up. I blow cleric and druid checks way more often because I don't play them all that much. Maybe I'm just a dummy, but I'd be willing to bet I'm the norm rather than the exception.

Lets just look at the numbers again for a wizard. And, again, we will look at a real build to ground the analysis in a reasonable 2022 build.

tdcharactercreator.com/#/character/edit/6ea68f32-d7d1-4f0c-b31e-a7e7373cc87d


Executive Summary
In nearly all cases, Havoc is better than a +5 ring of the savant. Savant only comes into its own in a 12 combat round or longer dungeon gaining a 5% damage advantage for a Mostly rare build assuming the Wizard passes 100% of skill checks.

A +4 ring of the Savant would not be worth equipping in nearly all non grind dungeons - It basically breaks even with Havoc if the wizard hits 100% of their skill checks in a 12 combat round dungeon.

Damage numbers
Our build starts at +14 damage.

If we drop Ring of Jealous Fervor for Ring of the Savant, we get -1 to all spells, but gain +5 on a few of them if we pass the skill check. Damage per spell at +13 damage:

Savant
Lightning storm: 33
Scorching Ray / Ray Of Shock: 31
*Magic missile: 21 or 29
*Burning hands: 19 or 27
Acid Ray: 25
*Darts: 16 or 24

drop Ring of Jealous Fervor for Ring of Havoc. The result is simple, we net +1 damage to all spells. Damage per spell is at +15
Havoc
Lightning storm: 35
Scorching Ray / Ray Of Shock: 33
*Magic missile: 26
*Burning hands: 24
Acid Ray: 27
*Darts: 21


Short Dungeon 7 combat dungeon.
Think E1, where we have a exposition before the combats that eat into actual combat time.

Savant:
Casts these spells:
Lightning storm: 33
Scorching Ray: 31
Ray Of Shock: 31
3x Magic missile: 21 or 29
Burning Hands: 19 or 27

Damage, depending on passing no skill checks, an average run at passing half skill checks, and ALL skill checks:
Min: 177. Average: 199 Max 209

Havoc:
Casts:
Lightning storm: 35
Scorching Ray: 33
Ray Of Shock: 33
3x Magic missile: 23 or 26
Acid Ray: 27

Damage:
Min: 197. Average: 201.5. Max: 206

Note how casting Acid Ray makes a noticeable impact to overall damage. Also note that a 100% skill check wizard is only 1.5% more damage than using havoc. Finally, note that a +4 to the skill check would drop the Savant average numbers by 2, and max numbers by 4 - meaning that a Ring of Havoc would be better even if the wizard hit 100% of skill checks.


[Medium Dungeon with 9 combat rounds.
I'll let someone with more time compare this to an existing module.

Savant:
Casts these spells:
Lightning storm: 33
Scorching Ray: 31
Ray Of Shock: 31
3x Magic missile: 21 or 29
Burning Hands: 19 or 27
Acid Ray: 25
Frost Dart: 16 or 24

Damage, depending on passing no skill checks, an average run at passing half skill checks, and ALL skill checks:
Min: 218. Average: 238 Max 258

Havoc:
Casts:
Lightning storm: 35
Scorching Ray: 33
Ray Of Shock: 33
3x Magic missile: 23 or 26
Acid Ray: 27
Burning hands: 21-24
Frost Dart 18-21

Damage:
Min: 236. Average: 243.5. Max: 251

The Ring of the Savant is still noticeably behind in all cases but where the wizard gets 100% of skill checks. The lead in this 100% has increased to 2.79% damage advantage. Finally, note that a +4 to the skill check would drop the Savant average numbers by 2.5, and max numbers by 5 - meaning that a Ring of Havoc is virtually at tie even if the wizard hit 100% of skill checks.


[Long Dungeon with 12 combat rounds.
I'll let someone with more time compare this to an existing module.

Savant:
Casts these spells:
Lightning storm: 33
Scorching Ray: 31
Ray Of Shock: 31
3x Magic missile: 21 or 29
Burning Hands: 19 or 27
Acid Ray: 25
2x Frost Dart: 16 or 24
2x Fire Dart: 16 or 24

Damage, depending on passing no skill checks, an average run at passing half skill checks, and ALL skill checks:
Min: 266. Average: 298 Max 330

Havoc:
Casts:
Lightning storm: 35
Scorching Ray: 33
Ray Of Shock: 33
3x Magic missile: 23 or 26
Acid Ray: 27
Burning hands: 21-24
2x Frost Dart 18-21
2x Fire Dart 18-21

Damage:
Min: 290. Average: 302. Max: 314


Even in a 12 run dungeon The Ring of the Savant is still noticeably behind in min and average, but can now miss 3 checks and still come out ahead of Havoc. The lead in this 100% has increased to 5.01% damage advantage. Finally, note that a +4 to the skill check would drop the Savant average numbers by 4, and max numbers by 8 - meaning that the damage advantage of Savant on 100% would be reduced to 2.5% and a single missed skill check would merely put Savant as parallel to a +2 ring.