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TOPIC: 2021 Trade Good Analysis

2021 Trade Good Analysis 1 month 3 weeks ago #1

Assuming I've not made any errors, the expected number of trade goods from a 1k order (120 packs) is:
Trade Item | 2021 Year Total Per 120 Packs
Alchemist's Ink	5.28
Alchemist's Parchment	6.12
Aragonite	1.08
Darkwood Plank	13.68
Dwarven Steel	8.4
Elven Bismuth	1.44
Enchanter's Munition	2.28
Minotaur Hide	5.04
Mystic Silk	14.52
Oil of Enchantment	1.44
Philosopher's Stone	17.04
Gold	5550

2021 Super Condensed Pack Rough Guesses:

Multiply the above numbers by 8. Removing Potion Dwarven Brew would drop the AI by 6.72 and contribute 16.8 Potion Condensed Healing.

Big differences from the 2020 Super Condensed pack composition:

2021 vs 2020:
48.96 AP vs 55
8.64 AG vs 12
109.44 DP vs 135
11.52 EB vs 14
40.32 MH vs 45
116.16 MS vs 100
132.32 PS vs 90
44,400 GP vs 43,200

2021 Condensed Pack Rough Guesses:

Looking at only the commons, and assuming the Potion Dwarven Brew becomes Potion Condensed Healing:
Trade Item	2021 Year Total Per 120 Packs
Alchemist's Ink	0.84
Alchemist's Parchment	2.52
Aragonite	0
Darkwood Plank	5.04
Dwarven Steel	8.4
Elven Bismuth	0
Enchanter's Munition	0.84
Minotaur Hide	5.04
Mystic Silk	5.88
Oil of Enchantment	0
Philosopher's Stone	3.36
Gold	1050

And 2.1 Potion Condensed Healing

Big differences from the 2020 condensed pack composition:
2021 vs 2020
0.84 AI vs. 2
5 DP vs. 7
6 MS vs. 3

Data at:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ST6GLacv6NqvpcVTwxeecMUF_pBxeJRrxtVFS7WA8LE/edit?usp=sharing

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Last edit: by Matthew Hayward.

2021 Trade Good Analysis 1 month 3 weeks ago #2

I was surprised at how not overwhelming the PS differences are.

It's up ~40-50%, but all that amounts to over an 1k order is 5 more PS.

Past year legendaries had trade goods equal to 2-3k worth of a given trade good, which would make me guess this year's might have 35-45 PS.

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2021 Trade Good Analysis 1 month 3 weeks ago #3

Is column J which is comparing it to 2016 (looks like it is so just checking)? Actually comparing to 2016 or 2020? If so where is 2020 sheet?

I am happy MS and DP planks have decreased disappoint AP decreased. Would like to see DS and AI.
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

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2021 Trade Good Analysis 1 month 3 weeks ago #4

jedibcg Banjo 815 Lover wrote: Is column J which is comparing it to 2016 (looks like it is so just checking)? Actually comparing to 2016 or 2020? If so where is 2020 sheet?

I am happy MS and DP planks have decreased disappoint AP decreased. Would like to see DS and AI.


I'm not sure what's in column J - ignore it - it's most likley 2017 data.

There is no 2020 sheet, I'm taking those numbers from the stuff currently on the store page for the 8k order options.

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2021 Trade Good Analysis 1 month 3 weeks ago #5

Matthew Hayward wrote:

jedibcg Banjo 815 Lover wrote: Is column J which is comparing it to 2016 (looks like it is so just checking)? Actually comparing to 2016 or 2020? If so where is 2020 sheet?

I am happy MS and DP planks have decreased disappoint AP decreased. Would like to see DS and AI.


I'm not sure what's in column J - ignore it - it's most likley 2017 data.

There is no 2020 sheet, I'm taking those numbers from the stuff currently on the store page for the 8k order options.

So you are comparing the 2020 condensed numbers or the actual numbers to the 2021 numbers?
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

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2021 Trade Good Analysis 1 month 3 weeks ago #6

jedibcg Banjo 815 Lover wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

jedibcg Banjo 815 Lover wrote: Is column J which is comparing it to 2016 (looks like it is so just checking)? Actually comparing to 2016 or 2020? If so where is 2020 sheet?

I am happy MS and DP planks have decreased disappoint AP decreased. Would like to see DS and AI.


I'm not sure what's in column J - ignore it - it's most likley 2017 data.

There is no 2020 sheet, I'm taking those numbers from the stuff currently on the store page for the 8k order options.

So you are comparing the 2020 condensed numbers or the actual numbers to the 2021 numbers?


I'm comparing what the 2020 condensed pack values were to the 2021 random distribution expectations.

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2021 Trade Good Analysis 1 month 3 weeks ago #7

Yep that is what I meant. Thank you.
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

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