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TOPIC: Treasure Draw disappointment again

Treasure Draw disappointment again 6 years 2 weeks ago #1

  • bpsymington
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My record of terrible luck when drawing continues. Had 34 draws. The person ahead of me, 5K bar. The person ahead of him, a relic and a purp. (They both had 17 draws). I drew crap with a side of nothing, including a common scroll.

Let's hope tomorrow's run does better. The odds have to eventually be in my favor eventually.
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Treasure Draw disappointment again 6 years 2 weeks ago #2

bpsymington wrote: My record of terrible luck when drawing continues. Had 34 draws. The person ahead of me, 5K bar. The person ahead of him, a relic and a purp. (They both had 17 draws). I drew crap with a side of nothing, including a common scroll.

Let's hope tomorrow's run does better. The odds have to eventually be in my favor eventually.


Based on what I drew I strongly believe at least one of these is true:

1. The mix is not as stated, and includes roughly 15% monster bits and 40% uncommons.
2. The actual distributions of tokes in the mix is uneven enough that it can't be characterized as random.

In 167 draws I got:

62 rares (37% - pretty much exactly the stated mix)
66 uncommons (40% - much higher than stated mix)
26 monster bits (15.5% - less than half the stated mix)
11 special (6.5% - pretty much exactly the stated mix)

The odds of getting 26 or fewer monster bits in 167 evenly distributed random draws if there are 35% monster bits (which was the stated mix) are:

Less than 1 in 58,000,000 (!)


My specials were:
5000 GP
Alchemist's Parchment
Aragonite
Elven Bismuth
Enhanced Creeper Amulet
Exalted Creeper Amulet
Mystic Silk
Shirt of Baneful Prowess

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Treasure Draw disappointment again 6 years 2 weeks ago #3

Matthew Hayward wrote:

bpsymington wrote: My record of terrible luck when drawing continues. Had 34 draws. The person ahead of me, 5K bar. The person ahead of him, a relic and a purp. (They both had 17 draws). I drew crap with a side of nothing, including a common scroll.

Let's hope tomorrow's run does better. The odds have to eventually be in my favor eventually.


Based on what I drew I strongly believe at least one of these is true:

1. The mix is not as stated, and includes roughly 15% monster bits and 40% uncommons.
2. The actual distributions of tokes in the mix is uneven enough that it can't be characterized as random.

In 167 draws I got:

62 rares (37% - pretty much exactly the stated mix)
66 uncommons (40% - much higher than stated mix)
26 monster bits (15.5% - less than half the stated mix)
11 special (6.5% - pretty much exactly the stated mix)

The odds of getting 26 or fewer monster bits in 167 evenly distributed random draws if there are 35% monster bits (which was the stated mix) are:

Less than 1 in 58,000,000 (!)




My specials were:
5000 GP
Alchemist's Parchment
Aragonite
Elven Bismuth
Enhanced Creeper Amulet
Exalted Creeper Amulet
Mystic Silk
Shirt of Baneful Prowess


The monster bit numbers are way off for me as well. 11 out of 105. Also pulled
1 blessed redoubt plate
No URs
1 10k bar
1 enchanters munition.
1 enhanced creeper amulet
1 shirt of Baneful prowess

I didn't really track the rest

I'm now regretting a trade I made involving a Golden Fleece.

I should have about 114 more over the rest of GenCon. Hopefully my luck on bits will improve.
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir

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Treasure Draw disappointment again 6 years 2 weeks ago #4

I don't believe the treasure mix was ever officially finalized or announced.
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Treasure Draw disappointment again 6 years 2 weeks ago #5

Kirk Bauer wrote: I don't believe the treasure mix was ever officially finalized or announced.


Well - it's not a blood oath ;) - but I think this statement can be reasonably interpreted as a non-finalized official announcement:

truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=53&id=234348#234348

I'd like to improve the way we do Treasure Coins in 2016. Here are the basics.

...

3) The Treasure Generators would have the following composition:

25% Uncommons
35% Rares
35% Monster Bits
1% UR
2.5% low-level Transmute
0.5% Relic
0.5% 5,000 GP Bar
0.5% 10,000 GP Bar


Now - obviously this is not exactly what happened, as I've gotten several trade items, which are not in the breakdown here anywhere.

But I've also gotten pretty much exactly 40% uncommons and 15% monster trophies, which basically seems like a move of 15-20% of the (non-finalized) stated mix from monster trophy to uncommon.

I'm not upset about this - but I could see how one might be.

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Last edit: by Matthew Hayward.

Treasure Draw disappointment again 6 years 2 weeks ago #6

I pulled 3 UR in 34 draws, plus a completion token, 7 monster bits and 2 Mystic silk

I also saw 2 other UR come out in my run

she runs hot and cold.
*mental note* always listen to Jeff

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Treasure Draw disappointment again 6 years 2 weeks ago #7

I'm not upset. I made a judgment based on available information. My assumption proved incorrect.

I was one of the people who suggested 35% trophies was too high. Be careful what you ask for...
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir

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Last edit: by Harlax.

Treasure Draw disappointment again 6 years 2 weeks ago #8

I did one batch of 17 pulls, saving the rest until later today (Friday). Pulled one bit, one UR (Pants!), 7 Rares, 8 Uncommons. Small sample, though. I should be pulling 119 more pulls through Sunday, and will post numbers afterwards.

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Treasure Draw disappointment again 6 years 1 week ago #9

One monster bit for me in 34 pulls :(
Ah well there's always today! And tomorrow!
<3
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Treasure Draw disappointment again 6 years 1 week ago #10

Beth Henricks wrote: One monster bit for me in 34 pulls :(
Ah well there's always today! And tomorrow!
<3


I have made over 300 draws on Thursday. I will be sorting and logging everything today. I think I have hit 2 relics and an ur and 10k for the big stuff. Expect lots of hard data tonight. There other 300 plus pulls data will get updated later this week.
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

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Treasure Draw disappointment again 6 years 1 week ago #11

I'll sumarize my totals tomorrow. Was feeling not so good when after 80 pulls had 16 monster bits and no specials. Last 20 pulls went much better with 8 monster bits, a minotaur hide and 25K gp bar. Still no URs, but saw someone else pull back to back URs out of box. Seems like there might be clumps of good stuff.

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Treasure Draw disappointment again 6 years 1 week ago #12

Dave wrote: I'll sumarize my totals tomorrow. Was feeling not so good when after 80 pulls had 16 monster bits and no specials. Last 20 pulls went much better with 8 monster bits, a minotaur hide and 25K gp bar. Still no URs, but saw someone else pull back to back URs out of box. Seems like there might be clumps of good stuff.


I would have been ecstatic with 16 of 80.
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir

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