TOPIC: New Magnetic Wand for token draws? Cool!

Jeff Martin wrote: There will be additional chests, and we will have special zip-tie sealed bags of 10 tokens that the big redeemers can quickly grab 10 tokens. These bags will be filled at TD HQ from the same exact stock of tokens in the chests and sealed with small zip ties. Taking the bags will be optional, as I know some folks are somewhat irrational about randomness and "luck".

I don't think it irrational when you know that not all treasure is out and available at any given moment or that if a box is low on tokens there is a fair chance that the good stuff has already been pulled.

I like the wand idea. I'm undecided on the 10 packs.

Any single token in the box could, in theory, be any of the tokens Jeff has placed into the treasure mix. If we really were lucky when pulling treasure, we would be cheating everyone that pulled after us.

I am okay with the ten packs, but share the concern about having issues opening them.

Harlax wrote: ... if a box is low on tokens there is a fair chance that the good stuff has already been pulled.

I think this is both true and irrelevant to your odds of getting "good stuff."

If you're trying to pull an ace from a standard deck of 52 shuffled cards, and 51 cards have already been drawn leaving one, there is a fair chance (indeed quite a bit better than fair: 12/13) that all the aces have been pulled from the deck already.*

Your odds, however, of pulling an ace on that last card 1/13, just as they were for the first card, or the fifth, or the 26th, or... you get the idea.

Surely you don't believe good tokens are more likely to be at the top of the box than the bottom?


* I assume no one is keeping track of which cards have been drawn so far. If you stand by the token box and wait for a bunch of junk to get pulled before making your picks, then your mileage may vary.

Especially since to boxes are just refilled with buckets of the mix. It is not like they wait till the chests are empty before refilling them. So you are always pulling from a close variety of the mix.

jedibcg wrote: Especially since to boxes are just refilled with buckets of the mix. It is not like they wait till the chests are empty before refilling them. So you are always pulling from a close variety of the mix.

but when the boxes were low and people were cheating (looking in the box) there were less tokens to look at so easier to see the good ones.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Harlax wrote: ... if a box is low on tokens there is a fair chance that the good stuff has already been pulled.

I think this is both true and irrelevant to your odds of getting "good stuff."

If you're trying to pull an ace from a standard deck of 52 shuffled cards, and 51 cards have already been drawn leaving one, there is a fair chance (indeed quite a bit better than fair: 12/13) that all the aces have been pulled from the deck already.*

Your odds, however, of pulling an ace on that last card 1/13, just as they were for the first card, or the fifth, or the 26th, or... you get the idea.

Surely you don't believe good tokens are more likely to be at the top of the box than the bottom?


* I assume no one is keeping track of which cards have been drawn so far. If you stand by the token box and wait for a bunch of junk to get pulled before making your picks, then your mileage may vary.

There have been times when that was true - back when it was pretty easy to look in the treasure boxes when pulling your tokens, I'm sure lots of the best tokens were pulled early on, and when the boxes were low they were pretty empty of the best stuff. I saw it happening more than once. Now though, I think your odds are just as good early on as late.

Mike Steele wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Harlax wrote: ... if a box is low on tokens there is a fair chance that the good stuff has already been pulled.

I think this is both true and irrelevant to your odds of getting "good stuff."

If you're trying to pull an ace from a standard deck of 52 shuffled cards, and 51 cards have already been drawn leaving one, there is a fair chance (indeed quite a bit better than fair: 12/13) that all the aces have been pulled from the deck already.*

Your odds, however, of pulling an ace on that last card 1/13, just as they were for the first card, or the fifth, or the 26th, or... you get the idea.

Surely you don't believe good tokens are more likely to be at the top of the box than the bottom?


* I assume no one is keeping track of which cards have been drawn so far. If you stand by the token box and wait for a bunch of junk to get pulled before making your picks, then your mileage may vary.

There have been times when that was true - back when it was pretty easy to look in the treasure boxes when pulling your tokens, I'm sure lots of the best tokens were pulled early on, and when the boxes were low they were pretty empty of the best stuff. I saw it happening more than once. Now though, I think your odds are just as good early on as late.

Oh - that makes sense then - I never considered people looking in the box to make their picks.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Harlax wrote: ... if a box is low on tokens there is a fair chance that the good stuff has already been pulled.

I think this is both true and irrelevant to your odds of getting "good stuff."

If you're trying to pull an ace from a standard deck of 52 shuffled cards, and 51 cards have already been drawn leaving one, there is a fair chance (indeed quite a bit better than fair: 12/13) that all the aces have been pulled from the deck already.*

Your odds, however, of pulling an ace on that last card 1/13, just as they were for the first card, or the fifth, or the 26th, or... you get the idea.

Surely you don't believe good tokens are more likely to be at the top of the box than the bottom?


* I assume no one is keeping track of which cards have been drawn so far. If you stand by the token box and wait for a bunch of junk to get pulled before making your picks, then your mileage may vary.

There have been times when that was true - back when it was pretty easy to look in the treasure boxes when pulling your tokens, I'm sure lots of the best tokens were pulled early on, and when the boxes were low they were pretty empty of the best stuff. I saw it happening more than once. Now though, I think your odds are just as good early on as late.

Oh - that makes sense then - I never considered people looking in the box to make their picks.

Yeah - my group many hundreds of tokens out of the treasure box (per year), and we NEVER drew anything good out of them until they redesigned them so that you couldn't see in them when making your picks. Since then our luck has been right about average (which I'm happy with). I'm sure that wasn't a coincidence, especially since I saw so many people clearly looking in the boxes before and during their token draws.

Jeff Martin wrote: There will be additional chests, and we will have special zip-tie sealed bags of 10 tokens that the big redeemers can quickly grab 10 tokens. These bags will be filled at TD HQ from the same exact stock of tokens in the chests and sealed with small zip ties. Taking the bags will be optional, as I know some folks are somewhat irrational about randomness and "luck".

So basically, you make the treasure 'mix', then randomly make several hundred 10 count bags, then fill the treasure boxes?

Same mix .. same mix .. sounds like even odds all around.

How would the 'oh man .. this is a common one' get handled? [although, i've only known two people who pulled a common out of the boxes.]

I like the bulk idea .. the wand is cool in that it solves the problem with the raised letters .. but man it looks problematic and/or slow.

I guess I can empty the bag that I filled with five 2016 tokens and bunches of commons now ..

Jeff321 wrote: Seems very fun, but I too worry about the speed of the lines. I already have 47 that I need to pull. Grabbing a handful of tokens won't be possible anymore.

I think speed will be a factor. I always grabbed 2-4 at a time or 1 at a time very quickly. The magnetic solution won't pull as fast I fear. I have 70 and one of my ream mates has over 20 ready to pull already. Could be quite slow. Not sure when we will get our 100ish. Last day, first day, mornings?


Edit: I just ready Jeff's 10 token bag solution. That will make things easier.

Steve wrote:

Jeff Martin wrote: There will be additional chests, and we will have special zip-tie sealed bags of 10 tokens that the big redeemers can quickly grab 10 tokens. These bags will be filled at TD HQ from the same exact stock of tokens in the chests and sealed with small zip ties. Taking the bags will be optional, as I know some folks are somewhat irrational about randomness and "luck".

So basically, you make the treasure 'mix', then randomly make several hundred 10 count bags, then fill the treasure boxes?

Same mix .. same mix .. sounds like even odds all around.

How would the 'oh man .. this is a common one' get handled? [although, i've only known two people who pulled a common out of the boxes.]

I like the bulk idea .. the wand is cool in that it solves the problem with the raised letters .. but man it looks problematic and/or slow.

I guess I can empty the bag that I filled with five 2016 tokens and bunches of commons now ..

I doubt commons will get in the treasure boxes since no one will be able to sneakidly put them in there this year.

I would happily grab a bag and then use the wand to get the leftovers. I usually don't have to worry about lines - as an AC I am there so much I can just go when I see there's no one drawing.