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TOPIC: 8k Super Condensed SUCCESSFUL. Order Placed.

8k Super Condensed SUCCESSFUL. Order Placed. 9 months 1 week ago #1

Hello all, let’s do a low stress auction with our stimulus money and stimulate True Adventures. This will be a Super-Condensed auction that will end at 10:00PM EST January 31st. The auction must hit at least $7,500 to be considered successful. I’ll be adding some completion tokens, monster bits, and URs into the mix as well to make it a bit easier to hit the auction goal. There are no reserve prices so the first bid on each item will start at $0.25. Please see the following post for detailed rules.

Funded! Current Total: $7538/7900 (Goal for free shipping)

2020 or 2021 PYP

PYP (4) - AFC Blinky @ 120
PYP (5) - Total Terror Toad @ 120
PYP (6) - Frix @ 115
PYP (14) - Grebb @ 115
PYP (3) - Major Bottlenose @ 115
PYP (2) - Pitstop Pete @ 115

Odds and Ends

Orb of Dragonkind Ancient (1) - Bucky O'Hare @ 410

2021 Patron Lapel Pin and code (1) - Toadborg @ 180

Wish Ring (1) - Andy Phibian @ 185

2021 Adventurer’s Guild Button and code (1) - Major Bottlenose @ 3.25
2021 Adventurer’s Guild Button and code(1) - Dexter @ 3.75
2021 Adventurer’s Guild Button and code(1) - Wolf @ 2.25
2021 Adventurer’s Guild Button and code(1) - Bucky O'Hare @ 5

7th Tooth of Cavadar (1) - Captain Smada @ 23
7th Tooth of Cavadar (1) - Frix @ 20
7th Tooth of Cavadar (1) - High Artificer @ 21
7th Tooth of Cavadar (1) - Toadborg @ 21
7th Tooth of Cavadar (1) - Willy DuWitt @ 21
7th Tooth of Cavadar (1) - Storm Toad @ 21
7th Tooth of Cavadar (1) - Digger McSquint @ 22
7th Tooth of Cavadar (1) - Digger McSquint @ 21

Goggles of Ethereal Vision (2) - Bruiser @ 4
Goggles of Ethereal Vision (1) - Willy DuWitt @ 4.25
Goggles of Ethereal Vision (1) - Major Bottlenose @ 4.25

Tankard of Celebration (2) - Digger McSquint @ 3.75
Tankard of Celebration (1) - Wolf @ 3.75
Tankard of Celebration (1) - Major Bottlenose @3.75
Tankard of Celebration (2) - Master Toad Spy @ 3.50
Tankard of Celebration (1) - Master Toad Spy @ 3.25
Tankard of Celebration (1) - Master Toad Spy @ 3

Potion of Condensed Healing (10) - Major Bottlenose @ 2
Potion of Condensed Healing (7) - AFC Blinky @ 2

Trade Goods

Alchemist’s Ink (5) - Wolf @ 4
Alchemist’s Ink (5) - Digger McSquint @ 4
Alchemist’s Ink (7) - Harman @ 3.75
Alchemist’s Ink (20) - Larry @ 3.75

Alchemist’s Parchment (10) - Storm Toad @ 3.25
Alchemist’s Parchment (10) - Willy DuWitt @ 3
Alchemist’s Parchment (33) - Andy Phibian @ 3

Aragonite (4) - Bruiser @ 23
Aragonite (6) - Toad Air Marshall @ 22

Darkwood Plank (50) - Bruiser @ 1
Darkwood Plank (60) - Komplex @ 1
Darkwood Plank (7) - Andy Phibian @ 0.75

Dwarven Steel (4) - Bruiser @ 3.75
Dwarven Steel (16) - Bruiser @ 3.25
Dwarven Steel (10) - Storm Toad @ 3.25
Dwarven Steel (10) - Master Toad Spy @ 3.25
Dwarven Steel (5) - Digger McSquint @ 3.25
Dwarven Steel (19) - Bucky O'Hare @ 3

Elven Bismuth (4) - Komplex @ 11
Elven Bismuth (2) - High Artificer @ 11
Elven Bismuth (2) - Larry @ 10
Elven Bismuth (4) - Bruiser @ 12

Enchanter’s Munition (5) - Digger McSquint @ 1.25
Enchanter’s Munition (4) - Komplex @ 1.25
Enchanter’s Munition (10) - High Artificer @ 1.25
Enchanter’s Munition (1) - Bucky O'Hare @ 1

Minotaur Hide (20) - Bruiser @ 1.75
Minotaur Hide (5) - Digger McSquint @ 1.75
Minotaur Hide (15) - Komplex @ 1.75

Mystic Silk (60) - Komplex @ 1.25
Mystic Silk (10) - Digger McSquint @ 1.25
Mystic Silk (2) - Wolf @ 1
Mystic Silk (40) - Bruiser @ 1

Oil of Enchantment (4) - Bruiser @ 8.75
Oil of Enchantment (1) - Harman @ 8.75
Oil of Enchantment (2) - Willy DuWitt @ 8.75
Oil of Enchantment (3) - Komplex @ 8.75
Oil of Enchantment (2) - Andy Phibian @ 8.25

Philosopher’s Stone (5) - Willy DuWitt @ 2.75
Philosopher’s Stone (15) - Master Toad Spy @ 2.50
Philosopher’s Stone (29) - Master Toad Spy @ 2.25
Philosopher’s Stone (20) - Quentin @ 2.25
Philosopher’s Stone (1) - Bruiser @ 2.50
Philosopher’s Stone (39) - Bruiser @ 2.25
Philosopher’s Stone (25) - Storm Toad @ 2.25

1k Gold Bar (14) - Bruiser @ 14
1k Gold Bar (26) - Bruiser @ 13
1k Gold Bar (1) - Komplex @ 13
1k Gold Bar (3) - Andy Phibian @ 13

Extra Goodies

Cook’s Hat (1) - Bucky O'Hare @ 96

Key of Healing (1) - Major Bottlenose @ 65

Gloves of Retrieval (1) - Master Toad Spy @ 5.50
Gloves of Retrieval (1) - Harman @ 5.50

Boots of Bolting (1) - Master Toad Spy @ 5.50
Boots of Bolting (1) - Harman @ 5.50

Ioun Stone Jasper Elipsoid (1) - Master Toad Spy @ 22

Bracers of the Tavernkeeper (1) - Secretary General @ 5.50
Bracers of the Tavernkeeper (1) - Master Toad Spy @ 5.50
Bracers of the Tavernkeeper (1) - Larry @ 5.25

Belt of the Brave (2) - Secretary General @ 16

Automaton Gear (1) - Harman @ 5
Automaton Gear (2) - Andy Phibian @ 5

Automaton Oil (2) - Bruiser @ 5.25
Automaton Oil (1) - Harman @ 5

Darkrift Ingot (1) - Harman @ 5
Darkrift Ingot (2) - Andy Phibian @ 4.75

Death Cloak Fabric (1) - Harman @ 5
Death Cloak Fabric (2) - Andy Phibian @ 4.75

Ethereal Ooze (1) - Harman @ 5
Ethereal Ooze (2) - Andy Phibian @ 4.75

Semi-Lich Dust (1) - Harman @ 5
Semi-Lich Dust (2) - Andy Phibian @ 4.75

Shipping on winning bids with destinations in the US:
$4 for 9 or fewer tokens/items
$8 for 10 -170 tokens(USPS small flat rate)
$14 for 171-1000 tokens(USPS medium flat rate)
$19 for 1000-1550 tokens (USPS large flat rate)
International shipping is at the actual cost of shipping.
ALL ORDERS WITHIN THE US WILL HAVE FREE SHIPPING IF AUCTION MEETS OR EXCEEDS $7900.

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Last edit: by Josh M..

8k Super Condensed Auction Ends January 31st. 9 months 1 week ago #2

Auction Rules:

In order for the auction to be successful, the grand total of all highest bids must meet or exceed $7500. If the auction fails to meet the minimum, I may choose to go forward.

Bids are sent to me via PM
You must bid at least the current bid + the bid increment.
Bid increment on items less than $10: 25 cents
Bid increment on items greater than or equal to $10 and less than $100: $1
Bid increment on items greater than or equal to $100: $5
The winning bid amount is the 2nd highest bid+increment, unless there is a tie in which case it will stay at the tie.
I will post the winning bid amount and a pseudonym of the bidder periodically.
In the event that multiple bidders all bid the same highest amount, the earliest bid will win the item(s).
This auction style rewards early bidding, as your bid will be more secure and it in case of a tie earlier bids win.
(ie. If Tom bids on 12/1 @ 9am and Jake bids on 12/1 @ 10am both with the same highest bids, Tom will keep the winning bid.)

Last accepted bids will be at 10 pm Pacific Daylight Time on Sunday, January 31st , however:
If there are technical difficulties that prevent using the TD forums or messaging systems within the last hour of the auction all open items will be extended 24 hours.
If a new highest bidder is found on an item within 1 hour of the end auction time the bidding on those item(s) will be extended 12 hours, open to all bidders.
Payment is required through PayPal via friends and family. All winning bids will have 24 hours after close of auction to provide payment & your choice of PYP (if applicable). Any unpaid item(s) after allotted time will defer their winning bid and the next highest bidder will be offered the item at their maximum bid price of the item(s). Shipping will occur within 1 week of receiving the tokens.
FEEL FREE TO BID ON ANY NUMBER OF ITEMS FOR WHICH THERE ARE MULTIPLES AVAILABLE, YOUR BID WILL ALWAYS APPLY TO THE LOWEST PRICED ITEMS.

I know there has been a lot of confusion and discussion lately around the mechanics of auctions, so let’s spell out exactly how mine will run. All items start at $0. Bids will be placed against the lowest priced, latest bid item. The bid will equal the second highest bid plus the increment. If the current lowest price items have a max above the new bid but others don’t, the lowest will be raised as normal, and the bid will repeat.
Example:
Argonite

Argonite (6) – A @ 8.00
Argonite (2) – B @ 8.00
Argonite (2) – C @ 7.00

Bidder A has 6 argonite at max bid $10.00 on 1/12/2021 @ 17:00. Bidder B has 2 Argonite at max bid $10.00 on 1/12/2021 @ 19:00. Bidder C has 2 Argonite at max bid 14.00 on 1/13/2021 @ 12:00.

Bidder D bids $12.00 on 2 argonite. This goes to the two held by Bidder C, as it’s the current lowest bid. It is not enough to beat Bidder C’s max bid, however. The second highest bid on those items is $12.00, bidder D’s bid, and the increment is added, leaving the table at:

Argonite (6) – A @ 8.00
Argonite (2) – B @ 8.00
Argonite (2) – C @ 13.00

Bidder D does have a high enough max bid to beat the next lowest price’s max bid, so the bid is now reapplied. Bidder A and B are tied for lowest current price, but A bid before B, so the bid now goes to the two held by B. 12 is enough to beat B’s maximum, so the price now goes to the second highest bid, B’s max, plus the increment. The table now looks like:

Argonite (6) – A @ 8.00
Argonite (2) – C @ 13.00
Argonite (2) – D @ 11.00

Bidder E then bids $12.00 on 7 argonite. Bidder A has 6 currently at the lowest price, so those will be bid on. Bidder D has the next lowest, so one of his will be bid on as well. 12.00 beats A’s max, so those go to the second lowest bid, A’s max, plus the increment. It ties D’s max, so the price goes to the tie and D keeps it. This leaves us with:

Argonite (2) – C @ 13.00
Argonite (1) – D @ 11.00
Argonite (1) – D @ 12.00
Argonite (6) – E @ 11.00

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Last edit: by Josh M..

8k Super Condensed (Plus some extra) Auction Ends January 31st. 9 months 1 week ago #3

I appreciate the detailed rules, but there's a scenario I'm curious about and can't figure out for myself.

Can you describe the outcomes of these two scenarios for eight available 7TH Tooth of Cavadar:

(Numbers indicate the order bids came in at)

Scenario 1:

1. A bids of $20 on each of the teeth.
2. Z bids $10 on one of the teeth.

What is the result?

Scenario 2:

1. A bids $20 on one of the teeth.
2. B bids $20 on one of the teeth.
3. C bids $20 on one of the teeth.
4. D bids $20 on one of the teeth.
5. E bids $20 on one of the teeth.
6. F bids $20 on one of the teeth.
7. G bids $20 on one of the teeth.
8. H bids $20 on one of the teeth.
9. Z bids $10 on one of the teeth.

What is the result?

If the two results are different in terms of the final bids for each of the eight teeth, can I as a bidder specify a distinction between "$20 on each of the teeth" and "Eight separate bids, each on one tooth, each for $20" when I place my bid?

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Last edit: by Matthew Hayward.

8k Super Condensed Auction Ends January 31st. 9 months 1 week ago #4

Not to throw off your auction, but I'm a bit confused about the start of your Aragonite example (it may just be me not understanding the rules correctly):

Argonite

Argonite (6) – A @ 8.00
Argonite (2) – B @ 8.00
Argonite (2) – C @ 7.00

Bidder A has 6 argonite at max bid $10.00 on 1/12/2021 @ 17:00. Bidder B has 2 Argonite at max bid $10.00 on 1/12/2021 @ 19:00. Bidder C has 2 Argonite at max bid 14.00 on 1/13/2021 @ 12:00.


Question 1: Since there are 10 bids for 10 Aragonite, why aren't the bids all at 25 cents at this point, since none of the 10 have a "second bid" on them? Can you clarify why the bids are at $7 and $8 at this point instead of 25 cents?
Question 2: If bidder C placed their bid last, why do they have a lower price at that point than the two bidders who bid earlier? I thought there was a benefit to bidding earlier, but this example doesn't seem to show that.

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8k Super Condensed (Plus some extra) Auction Ends January 31st. 9 months 1 week ago #5

I appreciate the detailed rules, but there's a scenario I'm curious about and can't figure out for myself.

Can you describe the outcomes of these two scenarios for eight available 7TH Tooth of Cavadar:

(Numbers indicate the order bids came in at)

Scenario 1:

1. A bids of $20 on each of the teeth.
2. Z bids $10 on one of the teeth.

What is the result?

Scenario 2:

1. A bids $20 on one of the teeth.
2. B bids $20 on one of the teeth.
3. C bids $20 on one of the teeth.
4. D bids $20 on one of the teeth.
5. E bids $20 on one of the teeth.
6. F bids $20 on one of the teeth.
7. G bids $20 on one of the teeth.
8. H bids $20 on one of the teeth.
9. Z bids $10 on one of the teeth.

What is the result?

If the two results are different in terms of the final bids for each of the eight teeth, can I as a bidder specify a distinction between "$20 on each of the teeth" and "Eight separate bids, each on one tooth, each for $20" when I place my bid?


In the first scenario A would have 7 teeth at 0.25 and 1 tooth at 11. In scenario 2 A through G would have a tooth at 0.25, and H would have a tooth at 11. The next bids would then go to the teeth of G, F, E, D, C, B, and A in that order. It'd lead to a pretty wide disparity right out of the gate that would get closed as more bids come in.

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Last edit: by Josh M..

8k Super Condensed (Plus some extra) Auction Ends January 31st. 9 months 1 week ago #6

Josh M. wrote: In the first scenario A would have 7 teeth at 0.25 and 1 tooth at 11. In scenario 2 A through G would have a tooth at 0.25, and H would have a tooth at 11. The next bids would then go to the teeth of G, F, E, D, C, B, and A in that order. It'd lead to a pretty wide disparity right out of the gate that would get closed as more bids come in.


Cool - got it.

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8k Super Condensed Auction Ends January 31st. 9 months 1 week ago #7

Mike Steele wrote: Not to throw off your auction, but I'm a bit confused about the start of your Aragonite example (it may just be me not understanding the rules correctly):

Argonite

Argonite (6) – A @ 8.00
Argonite (2) – B @ 8.00
Argonite (2) – C @ 7.00

Bidder A has 6 argonite at max bid $10.00 on 1/12/2021 @ 17:00. Bidder B has 2 Argonite at max bid $10.00 on 1/12/2021 @ 19:00. Bidder C has 2 Argonite at max bid 14.00 on 1/13/2021 @ 12:00.


Question 1: Since there are 10 bids for 10 Aragonite, why aren't the bids all at 25 cents at this point, since none of the 10 have a "second bid" on them? Can you clarify why the bids are at $7 and $8 at this point instead of 25 cents?
Question 2: If bidder C placed their bid last, why do they have a lower price at that point than the two bidders who bid earlier? I thought there was a benefit to bidding earlier, but this example doesn't seem to show that.


The answers to 1 and 2 are the same. I picked an arbitrary start to the auction prices so that I could show different examples of how later bids would hit. it's not a realistic start.

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8k Super Condensed Auction Ends January 31st. 9 months 1 week ago #8

Josh M. wrote: Auction Rules:

Your auction, your rules, and thanks for being clear up front.

But I feel compelled to point out that your own example

Bidder A has 6 argonite at max bid $10.00 on 1/12/2021 @ 17:00.
Bidder B has 2 Argonite at max bid $10.00 on 1/12/2021 @ 19:00.
Bidder C has 2 Argonite at max bid 14.00 on 1/13/2021 @ 12:00.
Bidder D bids $12.00 on 2 argonite.
Bidder E then bids $12.00 on 7 argonite.
...
This leaves us with:
Argonite (2) – C @ 13.00
Argonite (1) – D @ 11.00
Argonite (1) – D @ 12.00
Argonite (6) – E @ 11.00

quite clearly illustrates that the following warm fuzzy statements are not actually true for these rules:

"This auction style rewards early bidding

Here D bid the same per-item price as E, earlier than E, yet ends up paying a higher per-item price than E.

Since the price is set by the 2nd highest bidder, you enter your top bid initially and may never overpay."

Here C has most definitely overpaid, and would have done better to bid $12 instead of $14.

I would encourage you to remove those statements in order to avoid misleading people.
dmrzzz's trade thread

Yes, my AC is lower than the Wizard's. No regrets!

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8k Super Condensed Auction Ends January 31st. 9 months 1 week ago #9

David Zych wrote:

Josh M. wrote: Auction Rules:

Your auction, your rules, and thanks for being clear up front.

But I feel compelled to point out that your own example

Bidder A has 6 argonite at max bid $10.00 on 1/12/2021 @ 17:00.
Bidder B has 2 Argonite at max bid $10.00 on 1/12/2021 @ 19:00.
Bidder C has 2 Argonite at max bid 14.00 on 1/13/2021 @ 12:00.
Bidder D bids $12.00 on 2 argonite.
Bidder E then bids $12.00 on 7 argonite.
...
This leaves us with:
Argonite (2) – C @ 13.00
Argonite (1) – D @ 11.00
Argonite (1) – D @ 12.00
Argonite (6) – E @ 11.00

quite clearly illustrates that the following warm fuzzy statements are not actually true for these rules:

"This auction style rewards early bidding

Here D bid the same per-item price as E, earlier than E, yet ends up paying a higher per-item price than E.


Thank's for the feedback! I've participated in a bunch of auctions, but this is my first time running one so I'd like to be as clear as possible. That being said, I don't believe my statements are misleading. Let's take a look:

David Zych wrote:

Josh M. wrote: Auction Rules:

Your auction, your rules, and thanks for being clear up front.

But I feel compelled to point out that your own example

Bidder A has 6 argonite at max bid $10.00 on 1/12/2021 @ 17:00.
Bidder B has 2 Argonite at max bid $10.00 on 1/12/2021 @ 19:00.
Bidder C has 2 Argonite at max bid 14.00 on 1/13/2021 @ 12:00.
Bidder D bids $12.00 on 2 argonite.
Bidder E then bids $12.00 on 7 argonite.
...
This leaves us with:
Argonite (2) – C @ 13.00
Argonite (1) – D @ 11.00
Argonite (1) – D @ 12.00
Argonite (6) – E @ 11.00

quite clearly illustrates that the following warm fuzzy statements are not actually true for these rules:

"This auction style rewards early bidding

Here D bid the same per-item price as E, earlier than E, yet ends up paying a higher per-item price than E.


You're right, in this specific scenario D does pay a higher price than E. However, let's say G now bids for 6 Argonite at $14.00. E loses their 6 and will have to bid $13 to get D's two, and $15 to get four back from G. By bidding early D has more protection built into their bid of $12. They are more likely to keep their items and to avoid paying more. This doesn't always work out to them paying less 100% of the time, but it does work out to them having the highest possible chance of keeping the items they bid on at or below their max bid. E got lucky in this scenario with their bid in a way that allowed them to have a lower price for their items, but that lower price is more precarious. Depending on how the bids go their price will go up, and they'll be the first to lose their items.

Since the price is set by the 2nd highest bidder, you enter your top bid initially and may never overpay."

Here C has most definitely overpaid, and would have done better to bid $12 instead of $14.

I would encourage you to remove those statements in order to avoid misleading people.


I personally consider overpaying to be paying more than you're willing/wanting to pay. In this very specific scenario C is paying a bit more for their two Argonite. However, there will now need to be 9 bids with a max of 14 or higher to raise their price above $13 to their max, and the bids would have to be $15 to take the items from C. As the auction progresses they are more likely to pay less than people who bid later. They don't pay less 100% of the time, but I don't know that any system can guarantee that perfectly. They will pay less most of the time, as more bids come in and the prices reach equilibrium.

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8k Super Condensed Auction Ends January 31st. 9 months 1 week ago #10

Josh M. wrote: Thank's for the feedback! I've participated in a bunch of auctions, but this is my first time running one so I'd like to be as clear as possible. That being said, I don't believe my statements are misleading. Let's take a look:

David Zych wrote:

Josh M. wrote: "This auction style rewards early bidding

Here D bid the same per-item price as E, earlier than E, yet ends up paying a higher per-item price than E.


You're right, in this specific scenario D does pay a higher price than E. However, let's say G now bids for 6 Argonite at $14.00. E loses their 6 and will have to bid $13 to get D's two, and $15 to get four back from G. By bidding early D has more protection built into their bid of $12. They are more likely to keep their items and to avoid paying more. This doesn't always work out to them paying less 100% of the time, but it does work out to them having the highest possible chance of keeping the items they bid on at or below their max bid. E got lucky in this scenario with their bid in a way that allowed them to have a lower price for their items, but that lower price is more precarious. Depending on how the bids go their price will go up, and they'll be the first to lose their items.


I don't disagree with you that this auction style sometimes rewards early bidding. But sometimes it punishes early bidding. The takeaway is that anybody on the fence about whether to bid early or wait until later until this particular auction doesn't have a clear-cut choice; there are possible disadvantages either way, so they need to do their own analysis of the rules and then decide.

Since the price is set by the 2nd highest bidder, you enter your top bid initially and may never overpay."

Here C has most definitely overpaid, and would have done better to bid $12 instead of $14.


I personally consider overpaying to be paying more than you're willing/wanting to pay.


It sounds like you're defining "overpay" as being charged $15 when your top bid was $14? Certainly that would be inappropriate, but it would also have nothing to do with whether you entered your top bid initially as opposed to entering a more moderate bid first and only entering your top bid later on if/when somebody outbids your moderate bid.

Given the context, I would define "overpay" as "I won all the items I bid on, but I could have won all the items for less money if I had not entered my top bid." which is precisely what happens in this example.

In this very specific scenario C is paying a bit more for their two Argonite. However, there will now need to be 9 bids with a max of 14 or higher to raise their price above $13 to their max, and the bids would have to be $15 to take the items from C. As the auction progresses they are more likely to pay less than people who bid later. They don't pay less 100% of the time, but I don't know that any system can guarantee that perfectly.


I do! (or rather, they don't pay less, but they will never pay more, and they will never overpay by my definition above)

truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=584&id=250441&start=36#392558
dmrzzz's trade thread

Yes, my AC is lower than the Wizard's. No regrets!

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8k Super Condensed Auction Ends January 31st. 9 months 1 week ago #11

I feel like we don't really have a huge disagreement here, we just disagree on the amount that bidding early will help someone throughout the lifetime of the auction. I believe it helps more than it hurts, but I'll admit it's not 100% that bidding early will be a benefit. When this auction is done I'll run an analysis and post some anonymized data to see how it breaks out, it should be interesting. I think we can at least both agree that I've been extremely clear with exactly how the auction and pricing will work. Still, just to be as explicit as possible I modified my post to change the generic suggestion of early bidding to something a bit more specific.

I read through the thread you mentioned, and I can see some benefit to it, but I don't like how bids on one or two items can swing the prices of a ton of other items. It feels less fair to me.

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8k Super Condensed Auction Ends January 31st. 9 months 1 week ago #12

Josh M. wrote: I think we can at least both agree that I've been extremely clear with exactly how the auction and pricing will work. Still, just to be as explicit as possible I modified my post to change the generic suggestion of early bidding to something a bit more specific.


Thanks! I wholeheartedly agree that you've been clear, and I appreciate your edit.
dmrzzz's trade thread

Yes, my AC is lower than the Wizard's. No regrets!

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