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TOPIC: $8k Super Condensed Auction - CANCELLED

$8k Super Condensed Auction - CANCELLED 10 months 3 weeks ago #49

Jeff Greene wrote:

Endgame wrote: I felt that way, until I had a 3.50 bid on 100 dwarven steel and my bid amount was at 1.75. The final bid that closed the auction was 5 dwarven steel at some value over 3.50, thus doubling the amount I had to pay.

Now, when I bid on something in large quantities, I do something like this:

Bids for Auction X:
40 Dwarven steel at 3.50
20 Dwarven steel at 3.25
20 Dwarven steel at 3.00
10 Dwarven steel at 2.75
5 Dwarven steel at 2.50
5 Dwarven steel at 2.25

This way I can take a chance at getting a good deal, but someone bidding $5.00 on 1 Dwarven Steel (possibly trying to manipulate the auction a bit to close it by causing 1 bid to increase total amount bid quite a bit) doesn't cost me like it would with 100 @ 3.50.

Its more work for me to compose the bid, and its more work for the auction runner to handle it, but its the only way to protect yourself from one bid for a small number of items dramatically spiking the price for all your items.


I am still trying to understand all this. In your scenario, if you are the leading bidder with 100 dwarven steel at $1.75 (max bid $3.50) and someone comes along and places a bid for 5 dwarven steel at max bid $5, wouldn't the outcome be:
New lead bidder - 5 units at $2 (I assumed $0.25 as the bid increment)
You - 95 units at $1.75

You will lose units to the competition, but I wouldn't think your price would rise until more bids were applied at which point the auction would reach new equilibrium at the max price set by the highest person that does not get any units.

Am I close?

Nope, in the way the auctions are actually run:

100x. Bidder A has submitted a max bid of 3.50 on 100x items where the bid increment is 0.25. The current bid is 1.75 on 100x items.

Bidder B bids $4 on 1 unit.

For some reason that I don't really follow why people think its a good idea, the logical flow is this.

Bidder B "effectively" bids 2.00 on each item, just in case they can win with a bid of $2. When this does not occur, Bidder B then bids 2.25 on each item, just incase they would win with 2.25. This continues until they have raised the price on the entire lot to 3.50. Bidder B then submits a bid for 3.75 and wins 1 unit.

IMO, the best way for the auctioneer to handle this that yields the lowest price for Bidder A is for the auctioneer to direct Bidder B to the lowest price item (in the above scenario all are at the same bid). Bidder B then runs up that single item until he is either outbid or wins a bid. In this scenario, the Bids would be:
Bidder B: 1x @ 3.75
Bidder A: 99x @ 1.75.

This requires trust in the Auctioneer, but I don't think its really any more trust than any other scenario.

Note, in the way things work now in most auctions, its possible to manipulate the auction to a certain degree to close it.

Example auction:
Auction is at 7475/7,500. I have 4 PYPs currently at $90, which is a fantastic price that I would really like to lock in. I see someone with the entire lot of a trade good at a very good price (say 125 mystic silk at .50). I can bid $1.25 on 1 mystic silk, hoping the bidder has bid at least .75 on all 125 silk. If they have bid .75 on all of them, my single bid will raise the price of the auction 31.25 and close it, thus "locking in" my 4 pyps at 90 each

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$8k Super Condensed Auction - CANCELLED 10 months 3 weeks ago #50

Endgame wrote: For some reason that I don't really follow why people think its a good idea, the logical flow is this.

Bidder B "effectively" bids 2.00 on each item, just in case they can win with a bid of $2. When this does not occur, Bidder B then bids 2.25 on each item, just incase they would win with 2.25. This continues until they have raised the price on the entire lot to 3.50. Bidder B then submits a bid for 3.75 and wins 1 unit.


The reason people think it's a good idea is because the way auctions get presented on the front end is a pool of equally interchangeable goods instead of 700-ish individual lots. Many auctions include some form of the disclaimer that: "Your bid will always apply to the lowest priced items."

Since the auctions don't have a sense of individual lots, at least in the posts, I have no way of knowing with of the items in the pool my bid applies to. I can't say "I want to bid on items DS.1 - DS.5, DS.16 - DS.20, and DS.91 - DS.100". I'm at the mercy of the auctioneer to apply my bids with some form of intelligence. Specifically, the intelligence detailed in their rules, where my bid applies to the "lowest priced items."

So, this becomes an algorithm then. I submit 20 bids for DS. The auctioneer takes the bid for the first item, 1 DS. They apply it to the first item with the lowest price. Bid is current bid + increment. Did that bid win? If Yes, stop and process next bid. If No repeat. Apply the bid to the lowest priced item, which is no longer the first item, but rather one of the remaining 99 at the same price...

I do get why it's frustrating to have a huge lot double in price overnight. And, yeah, it can lead to bidding up goods to close out an auction early if it's lighting style. I still think this is better overall than a system where some bidders pay half the price for the same goods because my agent in the bidding - the auctioneer- becomes myopic and only bids for me on a small set of the available tokens, ignoring the other lower priced options.

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$8k Super Condensed Auction - CANCELLED 10 months 3 weeks ago #51

Marc D wrote:

Endgame wrote: For some reason that I don't really follow why people think its a good idea, the logical flow is this.

Bidder B "effectively" bids 2.00 on each item, just in case they can win with a bid of $2. When this does not occur, Bidder B then bids 2.25 on each item, just incase they would win with 2.25. This continues until they have raised the price on the entire lot to 3.50. Bidder B then submits a bid for 3.75 and wins 1 unit.


The reason people think it's a good idea is because the way auctions get presented on the front end is a pool of equally interchangeable goods instead of 700-ish individual lots. Many auctions include some form of the disclaimer that: "Your bid will always apply to the lowest priced items."

Since the auctions don't have a sense of individual lots, at least in the posts, I have no way of knowing with of the items in the pool my bid applies to. I can't say "I want to bid on items DS.1 - DS.5, DS.16 - DS.20, and DS.91 - DS.100". I'm at the mercy of the auctioneer to apply my bids with some form of intelligence. Specifically, the intelligence detailed in their rules, where my bid applies to the "lowest priced items."

So, this becomes an algorithm then. I submit 20 bids for DS. The auctioneer takes the bid for the first item, 1 DS. They apply it to the first item with the lowest price. Bid is current bid + increment. Did that bid win? If Yes, stop and process next bid. If No repeat. Apply the bid to the lowest priced item, which is no longer the first item, but rather one of the remaining 99 at the same price...

I do get why it's frustrating to have a huge lot double in price overnight. And, yeah, it can lead to bidding up goods to close out an auction early if it's lighting style. I still think this is better overall than a system where some bidders pay half the price for the same goods because my agent in the bidding - the auctioneer- becomes myopic and only bids for me on a small set of the available tokens, ignoring the other lower priced options.

When you bid, the auctioneer should sort based on max bid and apply your bid to the lowest max bid in the lot. That way he never ignores lower priced options that you could actually win.

Making a half dozen to a dozen bids per item in descending order by one bid increment each achieves the same functional goal for the bidder, but I think it ends up being more work for both the auctioneer and bidder in the end.

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$8k Super Condensed Auction - CANCELLED 10 months 3 weeks ago #52

When I do it, I follow the logic recently described.

My rationale is, person bidding wants what they want, and are willing to pay for it. I should not judge whether they would rather have fewer items at a lower bid.

I agree there could be gamesmanship, particularly with the "lightning style" when combined with my style.

There are definitely other ways to do it.

This thread has me at least considering changes to my next auction. Definitely not guaranteeing the rules will change, as doing so would go against several auctions worth of precedent at this point.

Either way, its a fun thought exercise.

It is important to keep in mind that running an auction is a LOT of work. Be kind to your auctioneers.
First ever death in True Horde
"Well, with you guarding 2 players, that means you take 90. Are you dead?"
-Incognito

My token shop/trade thread: Wade's Wide World of Wonder 

My Current Paladin Build 

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$8k Super Condensed Auction - CANCELLED 10 months 3 weeks ago #53

Endgame wrote: Example auction:
Auction is at 7475/7,500. I have 4 PYPs currently at $90, which is a fantastic price that I would really like to lock in. I see someone with the entire lot of a trade good at a very good price (say 125 mystic silk at .50). I can bid $1.25 on 1 mystic silk, hoping the bidder has bid at least .75 on all 125 silk. If they have bid .75 on all of them, my single bid will raise the price of the auction 31.25 and close it, thus "locking in" my 4 pyps at 90 each


You’re post reveals a little bit about you.

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$8k Super Condensed Auction - CANCELLED 10 months 3 weeks ago #54

Miathan wrote:

Endgame wrote: Example auction:
Auction is at 7475/7,500. I have 4 PYPs currently at $90, which is a fantastic price that I would really like to lock in. I see someone with the entire lot of a trade good at a very good price (say 125 mystic silk at .50). I can bid $1.25 on 1 mystic silk, hoping the bidder has bid at least .75 on all 125 silk. If they have bid .75 on all of them, my single bid will raise the price of the auction 31.25 and close it, thus "locking in" my 4 pyps at 90 each


You’re post reveals a little bit about you.


First, I think the whole point of the post is to show how a particular auction type could be exploited. I didn't see him saying he would or has done this.

That said, there is likely an exploit like this in virtually every auction style.
First ever death in True Horde
"Well, with you guarding 2 players, that means you take 90. Are you dead?"
-Incognito

My token shop/trade thread: Wade's Wide World of Wonder 

My Current Paladin Build 

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