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TOPIC: Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep?

Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep? 2 months 1 week ago #13

Grizwald wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: When I ran numerous auctions that funded last year I sold everything except the random URs and chance at a GT, and they were funded by the bid that pushed the total over 7500.


What are the odds of pulling a golden ticket?


No one knows how that works who doesn’t work for TD - it depends on the number of preorders I assume - also in recent years more golden tickets have been distributed.

I can say over the years for me I’d put the odds between 25 and 50 percent - but it’s a small enough sample that I can’t be confident.

I also speculate that the odds aren’t perfectly even in every pack. Again, pure speculation, but I think TD does something like this: Look at all the preorders, allocate some portion of the GTs randomly in those orders, but hold back some as well. As ticket sales go on, mix in GTs with orders depending on the pace of sales to try to make sure they are fully distributed before Gen Con (or whatever event they will be used at).

So, I think the odds during preorder likely differ than the odds after they are in stock - but that could be wrong.

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Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep? 2 months 1 week ago #14

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Grizwald wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: When I ran numerous auctions that funded last year I sold everything except the random URs and chance at a GT, and they were funded by the bid that pushed the total over 7500.


What are the odds of pulling a golden ticket?


No one knows how that works who doesn’t work for TD - it depends on the number of preorders I assume - also in recent years more golden tickets have been distributed.

I can say over the years for me I’d put the odds between 25 and 50 percent - but it’s a small enough sample that I can’t be confident.

I also speculate that the odds aren’t perfectly even in every pack. Again, pure speculation, but I think TD does something like this: Look at all the preorders, allocate some portion of the GTs randomly in those orders, but hold back some as well. As ticket sales go on, mix in GTs with orders depending on the pace of sales to try to make sure they are fully distributed before Gen Con (or whatever event they will be used at).

So, I think the odds during preorder likely differ than the odds after they are in stock - but that could be wrong.


I've run about 50% of $8K orders overall but have had good luck with GT's (my first was from a $500 order and I had no idea what a Golden Ticket run was until I pulled out the token and googled it.) If you try to buy one - the going price typically starts at about $1,250 right after the first batch are pulled then drops down to $800-$900 as the event gets closer. With a potential in-person (though, not certain) - interest might be higher but could just as likely mean people not wanting to get one just in case it is virtual (I thought Virtual ran amazingly well - almost as good as in-person so I would want to do it either way.)

Every year, I'm fishing to try to get 2 tickets - one for myself and one for a friend. Odds are, I'll be in the market to buy at least one (hopefully, not two, though :) ).

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Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep? 2 months 1 week ago #15

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Instilled wrote: Great post and thanks for the insight, jpotter. I've been curious about the lower value of teeth in recent years and the apparent decrease in the value of trade goods.

Is this because more 8k packs and/or token packs are being purchased, meaning more supply is entering the market? Or are fewer being transmuted? Do people value the teeth lower now because they are unimpressed with the ultimate transmute now that it has been revealed? Are more teeth given out in the 8k packs now than with the early teeth? Or have the teeth always hovered around $25-75 when they are first released?

Sorry if this is a silly question - I've only been at this for a little over a year now.


Re the price of the current teeth, it was this way with the rod segments too. If TD has grown between year 1 and 7 of the cycle there will be a lot more 7 then 1 and a lot more people who've given up on the compete transmute. So unless the 7 does something really cool on its own expect the price to be lower. When the new cycle starts I expect the 1s to go for around a hundred again.
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Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep? 2 months 1 week ago #16

Picc wrote:

Instilled wrote: Great post and thanks for the insight, jpotter. I've been curious about the lower value of teeth in recent years and the apparent decrease in the value of trade goods.

Is this because more 8k packs and/or token packs are being purchased, meaning more supply is entering the market? Or are fewer being transmuted? Do people value the teeth lower now because they are unimpressed with the ultimate transmute now that it has been revealed? Are more teeth given out in the 8k packs now than with the early teeth? Or have the teeth always hovered around $25-75 when they are first released?

Sorry if this is a silly question - I've only been at this for a little over a year now.


Re the price of the current teeth, it was this way with the rod segments too. If TD has grown between year 1 and 7 of the cycle there will be a lot more 7 then 1 and a lot more people who've given up on the compete transmute. So unless the 7 does something really cool on its own expect the price to be lower. When the new cycle starts I expect the 1s to go for around a hundred again.

Rod part 7 was pretty awesome, though, as until very recently it was tough to even out con. The teeth individually kind of... disappoint? They don’t do anything on their own, and even if you have something to activate psionic with a single tooth you get a small heal.

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Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep? 2 months 1 week ago #17

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Endgame wrote:

Picc wrote:

Instilled wrote: Great post and thanks for the insight, jpotter. I've been curious about the lower value of teeth in recent years and the apparent decrease in the value of trade goods.

Is this because more 8k packs and/or token packs are being purchased, meaning more supply is entering the market? Or are fewer being transmuted? Do people value the teeth lower now because they are unimpressed with the ultimate transmute now that it has been revealed? Are more teeth given out in the 8k packs now than with the early teeth? Or have the teeth always hovered around $25-75 when they are first released?

Sorry if this is a silly question - I've only been at this for a little over a year now.


Re the price of the current teeth, it was this way with the rod segments too. If TD has grown between year 1 and 7 of the cycle there will be a lot more 7 then 1 and a lot more people who've given up on the compete transmute. So unless the 7 does something really cool on its own expect the price to be lower. When the new cycle starts I expect the 1s to go for around a hundred again.

Rod part 7 was pretty awesome, though, as until very recently it was tough to even out con. The teeth individually kind of... disappoint? They don’t do anything on their own, and even if you have something to activate psionic with a single tooth you get a small heal.


I hope the next series has individual powers again rather than an activator model, it would also be ideal if the strongest/most desirable power was at the end of the series.
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Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep? 2 months 1 week ago #18

Interestingly, like the rod pieces, it isn't the 1st tooth that goes for the most money right now. It's the second or third. The rod had the same thing happening. I'm not exactly sure why that keeps happening - especially without the teeth having unique powers.

I agree the next set should each have unique powers. I recommend it be a longer cycle though with 1 piece for each class - it would make putting the final item together something of a feat as you'd need to stick with it for either 10 or 12 years (10 years if wizard/elf wizard were lumped together and fighter/dwarf fighter were lumped together - something I don't recommend, I'd prefer those 4 classes become more unique from each other rather than sharing items/powers.)

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Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep? 2 months 6 days ago #19

Fred K wrote: Interestingly, like the rod pieces, it isn't the 1st tooth that goes for the most money right now. It's the second or third. The rod had the same thing happening. I'm not exactly sure why that keeps happening - especially without the teeth having unique powers.

I agree the next set should each have unique powers. I recommend it be a longer cycle though with 1 piece for each class - it would make putting the final item together something of a feat as you'd need to stick with it for either 10 or 12 years (10 years if wizard/elf wizard were lumped together and fighter/dwarf fighter were lumped together - something I don't recommend, I'd prefer those 4 classes become more unique from each other rather than sharing items/powers.)

Fred


I heard on both Teeth and Segments that there was a drop in token sales on the second year in the cycle due to big reductions in spending by one (or a few) big token spenders. I'm wondering for the Teeth if there might have been a surge in token buying to get the first token in the cycle, and it might have dropped off a bit after that. It will be interesting to see if that repeats the next cycle, because I do expect the first token in the next cycle will sell at a premium price, and that might spark an increase in sales. But who knows, maybe there will be a surge in sales for the second (and maybe third) in the set also since that has been the most valuable in the Rod and Cavadar cycles.

I'd actually like it to be the same or shorter cycle. It seems like one reason (probably the main reason) the later tokens are worth less than the earlier ones is because token buying has increased and there are a glut of later tokens (teeth, segments) as compared to the earlier ones. It seems like a longer cycle would just make that glut worse.

I agree that it would be nice if the individual tokens were more desirable, and that the best bonuses be saved for the later tokens in the cycle (if there are differences in the bonuses, like there were with segments. I was equipping our group with the individual segments as soon as we got them, but I haven't bothered equipping any of the individual teeth. For Cavadar I'm just waiting to equip everyone with the completed Eldritch Token.

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Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep? 2 months 6 days ago #20

Well, many of us have needed the teeth and the auto will save pass, or incorporeal hit.

I'm of the opposite opinion, I like the payoff of a long term item.

The 3 and 4 year cycles in UR transmutes fills the smaller bill for me.
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Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep? 2 months 5 days ago #21

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I think part of the reason for the 2nd tooth being more costly is the relatively low number of early year teeth and more 1st teeth being created by coins because people assumed those would be most rare.

There is also no real reason for the cycle to be 7 years (other then the precedent set by the rod).
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Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep? 2 months 5 days ago #22

I would also bet that things like stock markets and job security in late 2015 and mid 2016 had to do with low 2 tooth numbers as well. It’s been a minute but that 2016 was the first gencon I skipped, 2020 being the second.
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Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep? 2 months 5 days ago #23

Picc wrote: more 1st teeth being created by coins


What are you referring to with this statement?

If you are talking about Mithral Count of Fate, no appreciable number of 1st Tooths would have been created by that method - there has never been a time when a 1st tooth has been worth considerably more than a Horn of Plenty, so there would be no reason to use a MCoF on that.

If anyone wants to trade me a Mithral Coin of Fate for a tooth of some kind, let me know...

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Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep? 2 months 5 days ago #24

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Matthew Hayward wrote:

Picc wrote: more 1st teeth being created by coins


What are you referring to with this statement?

If you are talking about Mithral Count of Fate, no appreciable number of 1st Tooths would have been created by that method - there has never been a time when a 1st tooth has been worth considerably more than a Horn of Plenty, so there would be no reason to use a MCoF on that.

If anyone wants to trade me a Mithral Coin of Fate for a tooth of some kind, let me know...


I know from first hand account that at least a two coins were turned in for 1st teeth towards the end the transmute period (I assume there were probably others) when they were not available from any other source. I know that at least one individual also turned in a coin for a second tooth. I'll let those people decide if they want to say anything beyond that. Other then those two individuals I have no knowledge of the number of coins turned in or what they were used for.
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