TOPIC: Meta: 8k auctions - how much does the auctioneer keep?

I've been watching some of the 8K order auctions, and have bid in a few, but I've been wondering about the mechanics behind it. Is there some standard rule of thumb about what the auctioneer keeps out of the order, and how much to value those at? Are people usually placing these orders to get one or two special tokens (e.g. the Wish Ring or the Orb of Dragonkind), and selling the rest?

I'd be potentially interested in doing one of these auctions some time, but I would want to make sure that (a) I would be able to get something of value out of it, and (b) I would be setting the target total appropriately for the rest of the stuff.

Good question. I don't know exactly, and I've wondered that myself. I think they usually keep the random URs and the Golden Ticket (if they're lucky enough to get one).

Noodle wrote: Good question. I don't know exactly, and I've wondered that myself. I think they usually keep the random URs and the Golden Ticket (if they're lucky enough to get one).

This is the basics of it. Although auctions vary.

It used to be that the target was 8k, and everything from the bundle that was guaranteed was sold. The auctioneer then kept the 9-10 random URs and the chance at the GT.

It became harder to get to 8k in funding, and so many people lowered the thresh-hold to 7500. This means they still kept the 9 URs (at a price to themselves of $500) and the chance at a GT. This is probably the most popular option, with people like Edwin (who sets even lower targets), Wade, Rachel, and Matthew Hayward (again with lower targets) doing them.

Tyler's was the first of his kind I believe, where he sold everything the bundle contains. He will get nothing, except perhaps a random UR if his bundle contains 10 random URs instead of 9 random URs.

The last two I ran, I threw about 1k worth of my own tokens into the mix to sell, essentially trading URs I didn't want for 9-10 random URs, and a chance at a GT.

Some of the auctioneers (namely Edwin, Wade, myself) will tell you if you are in this for a profit, it's probably not a good way to go about things today. Some of us do it more in the hopes of supporting TD. I don't mean to speak for Edwin (he can chime in for himself here) but I get the feeling he does it more for love of the game than anything else.

You can run the numbers if you like, but it's becoming much more difficult to get to the funding thresh-holds, especially with the loss in value of the teeth. Some believe that it is due to the number/concurrent running of auctions. I've played with the numbers quite a bit, and believe it's more to do with the loss in value of trade goods and teeth in general.

jpotter wrote:

Noodle wrote: Good question. I don't know exactly, and I've wondered that myself. I think they usually keep the random URs and the Golden Ticket (if they're lucky enough to get one).

This is the basics of it. Although auctions vary.

It used to be that the target was 8k, and everything from the bundle that was guaranteed was sold. The auctioneer then kept the 9-10 random URs and the chance at the GT.

It became harder to get to 8k in funding, and so many people lowered the thresh-hold to 7500. This means they still kept the 9 URs (at a price to themselves of $500) and the chance at a GT. This is probably the most popular option, with people like Edwin (who sets even lower targets), Wade, Rachel, and Matthew Hayward (again with lower targets) doing them.

Tyler's was the first of his kind I believe, where he sold everything the bundle contains. He will get nothing, except perhaps a random UR if his bundle contains 10 random URs instead of 9 random URs.

The last two I ran, I threw about 1k worth of my own tokens into the mix to sell, essentially trading URs I didn't want for 9-10 random URs, and a chance at a GT.

Some of the auctioneers (namely Edwin, Wade, myself) will tell you if you are in this for a profit, it's probably not a good way to go about things today. Some of us do it more in the hopes of supporting TD. I don't mean to speak for Edwin (he can chime in for himself here) but I get the feeling he does it more for love of the game than anything else.

You can run the numbers if you like, but it's becoming much more difficult to get to the funding thresh-holds, especially with the loss in value of the teeth. Some believe that it is due to the number/concurrent running of auctions. I've played with the numbers quite a bit, and believe it's more to do with the loss in value of trade goods and teeth in general.

I think the profit motive is still strong enough for many, if they have the time to run the auction. A handful of URs and a possible Golden Ticket is a pretty nice reward. At a different stage in my life I'd have absolutely been running some of those auctions for that reward. Although I'd probably be keeping some of the stuff myself and setting the threshhold correspondingly lower.

I believe the random URs and any GT if they get it is generally enough.

Depending on how they setup the auction they also get dibs on a few items putting in a max bid first and for as much as they want. It isn’t always successful, though I’m sure the auctioneers are happy when it does happen. I would assume they’re happy when it just works also, if they wanted the arginite for $25 and it ends up at $35 and out of their interest range (hypothetically) the auction is probably going well!

The auctioneers also can get paid more too, when there isn’t a hard stop (7500 instant auction or whatever) and there are “final bids” and the like an auction could go over the $8000 to initiate the order. Hypothetically, it could pay you for the effort, and you’d have to report taxes and the like as opposed to a loss of ... say $500 on an $8000 investment. I’m not a tax advisor.

When I ran numerous auctions that funded last year I sold everything except the random URs and chance at a GT, and they were funded by the bid that pushed the total over 7500.

Other auctions in the last few years have had higher totals to be funded - some have even exceeded 8000.

Many auctioneers also put reserve prices on most / all items and count those prices against the goal - so if no one tops those bids the auctioneer ends up buying items at those prices.

If you want to run an auction and keep specific things for yourself I’d just look at what they sold for in other recent auctions, and withhold them from the listing but offset the total needed for the auction to be funded by that amount.

As many have said (on a 7500 funded lightning style auction):
Auctioneer pays the $500 and then odds and ends of any shipping overage, any packing supplies they can't get for free, insurance they feel they need that the purchaser may not cover, and time.
Auctioneer receives 9 random URs from current year and may receive another random UR and a Golden ticket, so worst case they're probably paying 65 ish per random UR, best case they're getting a GT.
There is a decent chunk of time, coordination, and some risk (dealing with possible package loss), given the state of our mailing services atm, so it's not like the auctioneers are raking in the dough, frankly (but they do have a chance for pretty good rewards if the GT happens).

jpotter wrote: I've played with the numbers quite a bit, and believe it's more to do with the loss in value of trade goods and teeth in general.

Yeah, there's been a pretty significant drop off in many trade item prices this year compared to the last two.

Great post and thanks for the insight, jpotter. I've been curious about the lower value of teeth in recent years and the apparent decrease in the value of trade goods.

Is this because more 8k packs and/or token packs are being purchased, meaning more supply is entering the market? Or are fewer being transmuted? Do people value the teeth lower now because they are unimpressed with the ultimate transmute now that it has been revealed? Are more teeth given out in the 8k packs now than with the early teeth? Or have the teeth always hovered around $25-75 when they are first released?

Sorry if this is a silly question - I've only been at this for a little over a year now.

Matthew Hayward wrote: When I ran numerous auctions that funded last year I sold everything except the random URs and chance at a GT, and they were funded by the bid that pushed the total over 7500.

What are the odds of pulling a golden ticket?

Keep in mind that $8k packs aren't the only way to get Teeth. And that public auctions aren't the only way people do $8k orders.

I think something that often gets overlooked in the Tooth and trade good discussion around auctions is what appears to be a common progression of buying habits from tokenholics. People often start out by buying what they need from auctions and stores. Some portion of those people move to getting their own $1k/$2k order. They may even progress at some point to coordinating with others to do a private $8k order that doesn't show up on the forums.

Obviously, not everyone follows that pattern. And even those that do may still buy some pieces from auctions. But when they do, Teeth and Trade goods are often not what those people are bidding on, since they're already set from their private purchases.

We sometimes see a forum post along the lines of "anyone want to buy 1/4 of an $8k?" (which we saw at least a few threads we saw this year). But from personal experience as well as some discussions I've had, it is not uncommon that once those groups start coordinating, they often simply continue in future years, with no public mention unless the group has someone drop out and they want a replacement. Those groups represent other ways that demand in auctions gets reduced.

In short, some information is visible and some is not. It is quite possible that the information that isn't visible may play a larger and larger role over time.

Grizwald wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: When I ran numerous auctions that funded last year I sold everything except the random URs and chance at a GT, and they were funded by the bid that pushed the total over 7500.

What are the odds of pulling a golden ticket?

Depends on the number of token sales, as the number of golden tickets is fixed, but the number of tokens sold is not. My notes say a little less than 50% per 8k order, but that was from 2018. Not sure if that has changed.