Welcome, Guest
Username: Password: Remember me

TOPIC: 2015 Treasure Chip Market

2015 Treasure Chip Market 7 years 7 months ago #13

All we know is what has been in the past.

"Past performance does not guarantee future results."

2013 was clearly an anomaly.

We can guess the 2014 distribution is the norm. But it could all change.

Jeff posted the 2014 distribution in May. Assuming he posts again for 2015, doing anything before then is sheer speculation.
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Last edit: by Harlax.

2015 Treasure Chip Market 7 years 7 months ago #14

Raywind wrote: I'm... not entirely certain what I think of this idea. It's yet another step in the direction of TD being completely controlled by financial motives, I feel.


This is the reason I'm always so vocal about capping treasure draws.

But the math is wrong. As Henwy pointed out in other threads, $1/$3 isn't valid post-GenCon. It's a valid average for retail prices pre-Con, perhaps, but by the time you draw them the vast majority of tokens are only worth what you can get by converting them to trade tokens. For every exception (Ioun Stone Beryl Prism) there are a dozen $1 rares (almost any previous-year weapon or armor).
barkley.neo.rr.com -->see my trade thread HERE , my eBay store HERE or my web store HERE
"Ceci n'est pas une pipe" - Magritte

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

2015 Treasure Chip Market 7 years 7 months ago #15

After trying to determine the value of a chip last year, I am pretty sure my values were high. The average rare won't be $3. Yes, there will be the few chase rares, but the average weapon or armor will be worth 1/25th of an Aragonite. The Mushroom may skew the numbers, but we will have to wait and see. Who knows, Jeff may change ratios or the bulk of the pulls may not be current year tokens like they have been in past.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

2015 Treasure Chip Market 7 years 7 months ago #16

Yep, the average Rare won't be $3, and the average Uncommon isn't $1. And the more treasure token draws there are, the lower the monster ingredient token values will be. 2013 is an exception since there were far fewer monster ingredient tokens drawn, but I'd guess that monster ingredient tokens will continue to drop in value year by year.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

2015 Treasure Chip Market 7 years 7 months ago #17

Mike Steele wrote: Yep, the average Rare won't be $3, and the average Uncommon isn't $1. And the more treasure token draws there are, the lower the monster ingredient token values will be. 2013 is an exception since there were far fewer monster ingredient tokens drawn, but I'd guess that monster ingredient tokens will continue to drop in value year by year.


I agree that monster bits will drop in value. Before it was know about the good box (2013) we pulled Thursday all from the monster bits box and got 14 sets of bits. This last year since there was only one mix we ended up with 25 monster bit sets with about the same amount of pulls. I expect we will see 20-25 sets (80-100 bits) per year with around 400 pulls.
You don't have to outrun the monster, just the guy next to you - The buddy system.

Cranston's Character Generator for iDevices or Character Generator for Android

Amorgen's Excellent Excel Character Generator

Have you checked the Token DataBase ?

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

2015 Treasure Chip Market 7 years 7 months ago #18

Brad, Balthasar -

I agree with you both, the value of the token would drop significantly post-GenCon. I didn't think of that.

I guess we could always consider tokens for their value according to transmute recipes - what are your thoughts on this formula?

If:
Rare = 6 pts
Uncommon = 3 pts
Common = 1 pt

That means every 10 pack of tokens has 19 points of value. Call it $9 to be even per pack.

So:
$9/19 = $.47
Rare = 6 * $.47 = $2.82
Uncommon = 3 * $.47 = $1.41
Common = $.47

That would place an Aragonite at $70.50 but it would at least give a fair, baseline value.

balthasar wrote: Who knows, Jeff may change ratios or the bulk of the pulls may not be current year tokens like they have been in past.


Side question: What does happen to all of the tokens that are sent in for transmutes?

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

2015 Treasure Chip Market 7 years 7 months ago #19

joshua baessler wrote: What does happen to all of the tokens that are sent in for transmutes?

Jeff and his minions use them to construct the giant token golem he's working on. It will eventually be the guardian of Castle Carbondale.
Have you looked it up in the TDb ?
Please post TDb corrections/suggestions in this thread .
If I write something in teal, it should not be taken seriously

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

2015 Treasure Chip Market 7 years 7 months ago #20

Raywind wrote: I'm... not entirely certain what I think of this idea. It's yet another step in the direction of TD being completely controlled by financial motives, I feel.


For me, thinking about economic structures is a lot like puzzle solving - so it's a fun real world experiment I can run.

I can see how you feel though. If there is overwhelming community concern that this commoditization of treasure tokens is not fun or good for the community, I'll drop it. The only "grind" I want in true dungeon is 'True Grind.'

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

2015 Treasure Chip Market 7 years 7 months ago #21

Druegar wrote:

joshua baessler wrote: What does happen to all of the tokens that are sent in for transmutes?

Jeff and his minions use them to construct the giant token golem he's working on. It will eventually be the guardian of Castle Carbondale.


Good to know - I had assumed they were making scale mail with them.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

2015 Treasure Chip Market 7 years 7 months ago #22

There's nothing wrong with what you're doing. It's a question of the business model.

But Aragonite goes for $30. Trade tokens go for $2.50 - 10. The average is much lower than $9, probably half that.

I'm at work. Someone else can look on Lazlo's thread for current prices and the token list for the probability and work it out for reals.

@baessler - No. Tokens are simply not worth anywhere near $9/10-pack post-GenCon, unless a PYP comes with it. It'll be some work, but get a list of the 2015 tokens and work it out by trade token. I'd be curious to see the answer :)
barkley.neo.rr.com -->see my trade thread HERE , my eBay store HERE or my web store HERE
"Ceci n'est pas une pipe" - Magritte

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

2015 Treasure Chip Market 7 years 7 months ago #23

FWIW here is my current estimate:

High estimated value of a pull: $3.16
Uncommon valued at .50
Rare at $2
Trophy at $7
Special at $60 (based on a whole lot of guess work and Jeffs vague statements)

Without the special factored in : $2.56

If you drop the value of a rare to $1 and leave out the special it drops to: $2.18


I'm guessing that last number is the most realistic of the bunch.
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Last edit: by Harlax.

2015 Treasure Chip Market 7 years 7 months ago #24

I have a bunch of 2014 tokens that I did not get to use due to a family emergency. Do you want to purchase those?
Team Legacy
Yes I'm an Arneson you do the math.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Time to create page: 0.219 seconds