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TOPIC: Transmutation Costs

Transmutation Costs 2 years 5 months ago #1

In the interest of reviewing transmutation costs I went ahead and recorded them as best I could. I have a separate post for Story Arc, Relic, Legendary, and Eldritch - some are still being compiled. Please be patient.

Ed
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Transmutation Costs 2 years 5 months ago #2

I believe I got all the Story Arc but someone please correct me if I got it wrong.

2008 Medallion of Greyhawk (3 year Arc)
2010 Dragon Tooth Amulet (2 year Arc)
2012 Draco-Lich Claw Charm (2 year Arc)
2015 Icecrag Hero's Earcuff (3 year Arc)
2019 Bead of the Lucky Traveler (4 year Arc)

Interesting notes:
  • Conceptually the items have required a bit from each monster for each year (note the first few did not but the number of bits was the same starting in 2010
  • The Monster Bits required went from 7, 8, 8, 12, to 18 for the draft of 2019. A steady increase with a 50% between 2012 (2 year Acr) and 2015 (3 year Arc) and 50% between 2015 and 2018 (4 year Arc). So actually bits for 2019 would be less than average when you consider the additional year to the Arc.
  • Uncommon and Commons were dropped from the recipe starting in 2015
  • 2012 was the only year to require a trade good (Philosopher's Stone)

Ed
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Last edit: by MasterED.

Transmutation Costs 2 years 5 months ago #3

Historical Transmutation Cost for Relics

A couple of notes on the process I used. First Relics varied widely on which items they needed to craft. Meaning that sometimes an ingredient like Darkwood Plank was needed then for others it wasn't. I figured it would be better to create categories of approximate value to compare the recipe cost. I created these categories:
  • Trade Good 1 (TG1) = All ingredients defined by the TokenDB as Trade Good 1 (AI, AP, DP, DS, EM, MH, MS, and PS)
  • Trade Good 2 (TG2) = All ingredients defined by the TokenDB as Trade Good 2 (EB, OE, and 1K bars) and I added Aragonite at a 1.5 weighted factor (i.e. an AG would equal 1.5 OE or 1.5 EB)
  • Golden Fleece

I understand these categories don't address the market fluctuations when say Mystic Silk was so popular you could have used it for Kleenex. What this is trying to do is determine if approximately the same/more/less ingredients are required for Relics.

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Conclusions
  • Trade Good 2 has been pretty steady although the increase of gold required recently (5K) has been offset by less EB, OE, and AG.
  • There would be more Trade Good 1 ingredients needed this year (67) than the last 3 years on average (55).
  • In 2018, two UR were needed (CoAS) instead of the normal of 1. Although no 2019 recipe currently calls for 2 UR.
  • In 2018, the CoAS also needed 1 Golden Fleece which had never happened before. The TG1 ingredients (23) were much lower then the previous few years average (55).

Note - I have already sent my findings to TPTB for review. Can't say if they will make any changes but they are aware of them.

Ed
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Last edit: by MasterED.

Transmutation Costs 2 years 5 months ago #4

Legendary's started in 2012. I have averaged the quantity of the trade goods so with only one 2013 legendary it may be an abnormality (also excluded CoA). Here is what I found.
  • UR started to become a part of the recipe in 2014 (with 1 recipe requiring it), and starting in 2015 they almost always needed 2 UR. This is an increase in the Legendary cost.
  • Golden Fleeces were always required but staring in 2018 the requirement moved up to 2.
  • Aragonite has sleadly increased and is now up to an average of 4


The average's (not counting 2019) for the following trade goods are:

Alchemists Ink - 5.0 (2019 draft is 10)
Alchemists Parchment - 11.7 (2019 draft is 6)
Aragonite - 2.8 (2019 draft is 2)
Darkwood Plank - 13.8 (2019 draft is 18.3)
Dwarven Steel - 14.7 (2019 draft is 8)
Elven Bismuth - 2.3 (2019 draft is 2)
Enchanters Munition - 3.8 (2019 draft is 8.3)
Golden Fleece - 1.1 (2019 draft is 2)
Minotaur Hide - 6.0 (2019 draft is 2)
Mystic Silk - 14.9 (2019 draft is 16.7)
Oil of Enchantment - 2.3 (2019 draft is 2.0)
Philosphers Stone - 8.2 (2019 draft is 15)

Conclusion
2019 is above average in AI (5), DP (4.5), EM (4.5), MS (1.8), and PS (6.8)
2019 is average on Golden Fleece with the increase last year and UR with the increase in 2015
2019 is below average on AP (5.7), Aragonite (.8 but really more), DS (6.7), EB (0.3), MH (4), OE (0.3)

Seems inline with average legendary costs.

Ed
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Last edit: by MasterED.

Transmutation Costs 2 years 5 months ago #5

Eldritch - there have been 2 Eldritch items prior to the Kilt of the Dungeonbane. In both cases they were identical recipes for a 4 year story Arc, each requiring 4 UR and one of every trade good except for Golden Fleece.

The Kilt is a 3 year story Arc with an identical recipe except for requiring 3 UR and adding a 1 Golden Fleece.

I will let you draw your own conclusions there.

Ed
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Last edit: by MasterED.

Transmutation Costs 2 years 5 months ago #6

Reserved - in case I missed one
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Transmutation Costs 2 years 5 months ago #7

Thanks for your hard work, Ed. It's always good to see analysis like this.

I'm just glad that everything was -1 fleece in the 2nd draft.

I'm curious to see what the recipes will look like in 2021, as Jeff already mentioned the Fleece requirement would go down.
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Transmutation Costs 2 years 5 months ago #8

We can debate whether it is "right" or "Fair" that recipes include 2 Fleece at legendary.

We should have done that last year.

The precedent was set

The cost didn't go up.

I'm of the opinion that the kilt, by virtue of being eldritch and requiring only 3 URs, as we knew it would, adding in a golden fleece doesn't feel unfair to me.

I missed both Origins and GC this year, so I will be scrambling for monster bits.

I also traded 19 monster bits for a PYP this year. I would like that decision back please.

Sometimes things happen. I think the newer costs are fair.

I like that we are using more DP, EM, MS, and PS. Those are definitely the minor trade goods I have the most of lying around.
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Transmutation Costs 2 years 5 months ago #9

MasterED wrote: Eldritch - there have been 2 Eldritch items prior to the Kilt of the Dungeonbane. In both cases they were identical recipes for a 4 year story Arc, each requiring 4 UR and one of every trade good except for Golden Fleece.

The Kilt is a 3 year story Arc with an identical recipe except for requiring 3 UR and adding a 1 Golden Fleece.

I will let you draw your own conclusions there.

Ed


If this is the case due to a three year transmute, then it is almost okay. that being said if it turns back to four will the fleece remain? Reminds me of the TD run prices going up.

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Transmutation Costs 2 years 5 months ago #10

MasterED wrote: Legendary's started in 2012. I have averaged the quantity of the trade goods so with only one 2013 legendary it may be an abnormality (also excluded CoA). Here is what I found.

  • Aragonite has sleadly increased and is now up to an average of 4


The average's (not counting 2019) for the following trade goods are:

Aragonite - 2.8 (2019 draft is 2)

Conclusion
2019 is below average on AP (5.7), Aragonite (.8 but really more), DS (6.7), EB (0.3), MH (4), OE (0.3)


Thanks for doing this, it's pretty neat.

I'm not sure I understand the Aragonite discussion here though?

When you say Aragnoite's average has gone to 4, what period or set of tokens is that over?

And when you say 2019 is below average on Aragonite (0.8 but really more) what does the "really more" part mean - the average is really more than 0.8 below the running average?

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Last edit: by Matthew Hayward.

Transmutation Costs 2 years 5 months ago #11

Wade Schwendemann wrote: We can debate whether it is "right" or "Fair" that recipes include 2 Fleece at legendary.

We should have done that last year.

The precedent was set

The cost didn't go up.

I'm of the opinion that the kilt, by virtue of being eldritch and requiring only 3 URs, as we knew it would, adding in a golden fleece doesn't feel unfair to me.

I missed both Origins and GC this year, so I will be scrambling for monster bits.

I also traded 19 monster bits for a PYP this year. I would like that decision back please.

Sometimes things happen. I think the newer costs are fair.

I like that we are using more DP, EM, MS, and PS. Those are definitely the minor trade goods I have the most of lying around.


I agree - my recollection was that last year when Charm of Awakened Synergy required a Golden Fleece at relic was that people took it in a stride.

I think that the 2018 increase to 2 Fleece at Legendary and 1 fleece at relic in a chase token that was highly desirable, showed that there isn't enough demand from Relic and Legendary tokens to soak up all the extra fleece being generated.

Hopefully the Eldritch transmute demand will do so.

There are already signs it's working, the only place I see selling fleece has upped the price from 59 to 69, and I'm offering 45 in the forums ($10 more than I bought one on eBay last month for) with no takers.

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Last edit: by Matthew Hayward.

Transmutation Costs 2 years 5 months ago #12

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Matthew Hayward wrote:
There are already signs it's working, the only place I see selling fleece has upped the price from 59 to 69, and I'm offering 45 in the forums ($10 more than I bought one on eBay last month for) with no takers.


In fairness that might be us over correcting since we've just been given the news.
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