TOPIC: 3 days, 3.33 hours till tokens go on sale.

That's a good guess - I guess.

I'd bet only 1-2 end up in the hands of people that order 10 bags or less, maybe even none.  I'd think that the total number of bags ordered by people ordering 10 bags or less would be pretty small compared to the total number of bags ordered, since some people will probably be ordering hundreds of bags just by themselves (judging by the orders last year). 

or thousands of bags. 

<br />or thousands of bags.  <br />

<br /><br />Hmmm ... A Thousand Bags = $10,000, Thousands of Bags = $20,000-Infinity....<br /><br />I'd say you are going for the all-time record!  Someone call Guiness!!  =D

<br />I'd bet only 1-2 end up in the hands of people that order 10 bags or less, maybe even none.  I'd think that the total number of bags ordered by people ordering 10 bags or less would be pretty small compared to the total number of bags ordered, since some people will probably be ordering hundreds of bags just by themselves (judging by the orders last year).  <br />

<br /><br />The big question is how many tokens are in this printing.   <br /><br />We know that the people who got rings (You, Smak, Gary, and 2 or 3 more) last year bought at least 25,000 tokens (combined).  <br /><br />(entering the hand waving part of the arguement)<br /><br />I think the next bunch of folks (people like Kim, Raven, Widseth and myself) bought in the range of 250-1500 tokens each.  Say 15,000 tokens spread out among 15-20 folks.  <br /><br />So about 40,000 tokens will go to the large and medium token buyers.  <br /><br />If the printing is 40,000 tokens then the little guys may get not only 0 golden tickets but 0 tokens.  <br />If the printing is 50,000 tokens then the little guys may get 20% of the golden tickets, 3 or 4 tickets.<br />If the printing is 60,000 tokens then the little guys may get 33% of the golden tickets, 5 or 6 tickets.<br />....<br />If the printing is 1,000,000 tokens then Lori has Jeff taken away to the funny farm.  <br /><br /><br />On the other hand, if the printing is 40,000 tokens and Smak buy them all, then we all start begging him for his extra golden tickets.  <br /><br /><br />(just something to think about until tokens go on sale, in 1 day, 23 hours, 20 minutes.)

There's something not quite right about your numbers.  You're saying that if the print run is 60,000, then the smaller buyers (10 bags or less) would buy 20,000 tokens.  That is a third of the print run, and I can't imagine that 1/3 of the print run would be made up of buyers of 10 bags or less.  If you average that to 6 bags per person, that is 333 smaller buyers.  Are there that many?  I suspect that the number of larger token buyers is higher than you're guessing, and the number of smaller token buyers is smaller than you're guessing.  I'll bet as many people as possible are buying at least $250, to get an UR.  I'd guess that the buyers of larger than 10 bags would make up at least 95% of the purchasing, and maybe even more.  That's why I'm guessing 1-2 Golden Tickets for the smaller buyers at most.  Of course it is all speculation, and luck can kick in and sway the number one way or the other larger than the odds would say.<br /><br />What I'm wondering is what happens if one or more people get a Golden Token, and either don't really realize what it is, or aren't interested in participating and aren't hooked up enough with other players to trade/sell it off.  If all 16 Golden Tickets aren't cashed in, I wonder if there is a back-up plan to fill all 16 slots.  Maybe a couple of "Silver Tokens" where they can be the alternates if all 16 Golden Token holders don't make it.  =)

25,000 tokens?  <br /><br />I received a ring.  It was for a each $3000 of total purchased.<br />Not including the "extra tokens" thrown in for buying in quantity, that's 3,000 tokens, not 30,000.  <br />Either that, or I'm about 27 thousand tokens short!  <br /><br />

I think he meant that the total # of tokens purchased by the top buyers together...

that makes sense.  Thank you.  I should have re-read it.  Didn't, as I'm at work.....

My guess was a print run of 50,000.  <br /><br />So 10,000 tokens sold to people buying around 10 bags each would mean 100 people buy small orders of tokens.  I think that number is very possible.<br /><br />With the shipping charge ordered under 10 bags get really expensive per bag.  So I think 10 will be the mininum size of pre-order since that is first level where a free bag is thrown in.  <br />

From what I've read, heard, witnessed, etc.:  <br /><br />"top buyers" Forumites who posted info:  account for roughly 30,000 tokens (not including the free extras)<br />"top buyers" who are either Non-Forumites or never post:  account for (big guess here based upon what I've heard) 10-15,000 tokens or more<br />That means roughly a minimum of 45,000 tokens were sold in 2007.  This includes end-to-end sales, from the beginning until the last token was sold.<br /><br />I haven't garnered a guess at those we don't know or how many tokens the 100 and 250 token purchses add up to, but I'd wager everything combined adds up to about 70,000 or so total for the entire 2007 print.<br /><br />Who knows.  Jeff and Lori may be laughing out our rediculous (low or high) guesses.<br /><br />As for pre-gen con sales, I would guess about 70% of the sales were pre-Con.  <br /><br />Big guesses.  Not much data (at my end) to back it up, other than what I remember forumites posting.<br /><br /><br />JKW<br /><br /><br />Now - all that said - I'm not really that interested in the stats.<br />I figure the changes of getting one of sixteen tokens in say 49,000 tokens is about 1 in 3000 (plus freebies) tokens.<br />Which means, big buyers may get 1 golden ticket for roughly every $3k spent.  <br />Buyers of smaller amounts will be very lucky indeed to get a Golden Ticket.<br /><br />It also all depends upon how the stuffing of the rolls are handled.<br />If the entire shipment of subjected tokens arrives at once, then TD would have the option to divide the lot up into 16 stacks and stuff one golden ticket into each of the sixteen stacks.  Re-shuffel stacks and call it a day.  This would be relatively "random" and "even."<br /><br />well...hope this isn't too much speculation<br />

True, I'll consider myself fortunate indeed to get a Golden Token this year.  But I'll be happy with my tokens regardless of whether there is a Golden one in there  =)