TOPIC: Factory Sealed

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<br /><br />I'm not sure how much the new player population is shrinking.  There are 30,000 people at GENCON, and I'm sure thousands of them are new each year, so it's not unreasonable to think that there would be a sizeable number of new people each year to try True Dungeon.  It would be interested to see statistics on that, to see if the number of new people is shrinking each year.  <br />

<br /><br />If the new player percentage is shrinking, it's only because there are fewer slots than there are people wanting to get slots - and repeat players are the ones that are most avid about getting a spot.  As a brand new player this year, I thought hard about fighting the 'e-crowd' on the day registration opened, and shelling out over $100 for three of us to play a game that was new to us.  But I'm sure it will be worth it!<br /><br />binia<br />

<br /><br />Welcome.  I hope you think it is worth it, too.  I wish we had more room and time to set up, but someday we can reach our potential.

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<br />Hmm, I've heard it said that pixies can be very persuasive. Although I think its all just exaggeration. <br />

<br /><br />I wish Pixies were only peruasive!!<br /><br />Forsaken--->:violent1:<---Pixie<br /><br />It Hurts!!!<br />

<br /><br />Well if you don't like women to hit on you, do you prefer men to hit on you? Cause I can have that arranged.  :tongue3:

In the past, the percentage of new players was significant.  I seem to recall around 40% in '06?<br /><br />But I can tell you this, if that percentage doesn't shrink, this does not bode well for True Dungeon as this is an indication that there isn't enough player retention and that we are digging into the "reserves" of people that were waiting to play and couldn't.<br /><br />Philosophically, its an interesting dilema because there is a potential untapped token market and volunteer market with new players but at the same time, we want all of the the old players to come back.<br /><br />If only there were a way to expand capacity.  :|

<br />Welcome.  I hope you think it is worth it, too.  I wish we had more room and time to set up, but someday we can reach our potential.<br />

<br /><br />Thanks for the welcome!  By the way, I formally volunteer to give your grandparents a break and do a bunch of sorting for you - for the paltry salary of a few tokens   =D  Of course, particular tokens....<br /><br />Long term, maybe you can buy yourself a half dozen semi trucks and have the rooms set up inside semi-permanently (no pun intended).  Just drive them around to different cons and charge admission.  One small problem, I bet semis are expensive... pop-up campers?

<br />In the past, the percentage of new players was significant.  I seem to recall around 40% in '06?<br /><br />But I can tell you this, if that percentage doesn't shrink, this does not bode well for True Dungeon as this is an indication that there isn't enough player retention and that we are digging into the "reserves" of people that were waiting to play and couldn't.<br /><br />Philosophically, its an interesting dilema because there is a potential untapped token market and volunteer market with new players but at the same time, we want all of the the old players to come back.<br /><br />If only there were a way to expand capacity.   :|<br />

<br /><br />Or possibly there are always a bunch of new players and a bunch of existing players fighting it out for the available slots, and maybe every year a percentage of the slots go to new players.  I don't think we're anywhere near reaching the bottom of the inventory of people that want to play - if anything it seems that there are more people rushing to get those tickets each year.<br /><br />I agree that it would be ideal to expand the capacity somehow - without harming the experience   =)

<br />In the past, the percentage of new players was significant.  I seem to recall around 40% in '06?<br /><br />But I can tell you this, if that percentage doesn't shrink, this does not bode well for True Dungeon as this is an indication that there isn't enough player retention and that we are digging into the "reserves" of people that were waiting to play and couldn't.<br /><br />Philosophically, its an interesting dilema because there is a potential untapped token market and volunteer market with new players but at the same time, we want all of the the old players to come back.<br /><br />If only there were a way to expand capacity.   :|<br />

<br /><br />Douglas,<br /><br />Your statment is a bit misleading.<br />Last year was the first year that we did 2 dungeons - 1 module. <br />In the past there has been 1 dungeon, 05' there were 2 different dungeons and the players wanted to do both and many do mulitple runs.<br />With the introduction of 2 dungeons-1 module the number of runs were cut down by individuals and free space in the player base for the new players. It did not mean that we lost 40% of our players from the year before. But that the players reduced the number of runs they did, allowing new numbers to come into the fold.

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<br /><br />I'm not sure how much the new player population is shrinking.  There are 30,000 people at GENCON, and I'm sure thousands of them are new each year, so it's not unreasonable to think that there would be a sizeable number of new people each year to try True Dungeon.  It would be interested to see statistics on that, to see if the number of new people is shrinking each year.  <br />

<br /><br />If the new player percentage is shrinking, it's only because there are fewer slots than there are people wanting to get slots - and repeat players are the ones that are most avid about getting a spot.  As a brand new player this year, I thought hard about fighting the 'e-crowd' on the day registration opened, and shelling out over $100 for three of us to play a game that was new to us.  But I'm sure it will be worth it!<br /><br />binia<br />

<br /><br /><br />Excellent Point.  Thank you for that viewpoint, Binia.<br /><br />JKW

<br />Douglas,<br /><br />Your statment is a bit misleading.<br />Last year was the first year that we did 2 dungeons - 1 module. <br />In the past there has been 1 dungeon, 05' there were 2 different dungeons and the players wanted to do both and many do mulitple runs.<br />With the introduction of 2 dungeons-1 module the number of runs were cut down by individuals and free space in the player base for the new players. It did not mean that we lost 40% of our players from the year before. But that the players reduced the number of runs they did, allowing new numbers to come into the fold.<br />

<br /><br />Joyus,<br /><br />(grrr... second time I am typing this).  It would be interesting to analyze the new vs. old player distributions and track trends but alas I don't have access to the data base by year so I just go by the XP database.  Having said that, I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying.  I am not saying that we lost 40% of our players.  That would assume that all of the returning players were able to get tickets which we know not to be true.  And while the decision to go to 1 module did impact dual runs, I think the impact might be smaller than you may think.  There are many people that go on multiple runs because of the subtle dungeon differences, the Normal vs. Hardcord options, and just based on different friend groups.  <br /><br />Based on the XP database, we have had 6339 total players.<br /><br />Level 1 - 973<br />Level 2 - 4346<br />Level 3 - 909<br />Level 4 - 111<br /><br />Clearly the level 4s and most of the level 3s are the die hards but that is only ~15% of the total players.  A random sampling of the level 2s shows that about 1/2 of the Indy '06 players were new.  Beyond that its all speculation on players that weren't able to get tickets vs. didn't try.<br /><br />But the point is, if the percentage of new players doesn't shrink below 40% then this is an indication that retention isn't where it should be and we are consuming a finite pool of players that are willing to spend $35 on a 2-hour event. 

Are you also factoring in the people that just can't get to the convention for whatever reason? (job, pregnancy, etc)<br />Doesn't mean they wouldn't play TD if they were able to make it to the con.<br /><br />I'd play a lot more often if I could, but I didn't want to buy up three or four runs and take away the chance of a new player getting to try TD.  I figure I'll be in the tavern a lot anyway, and if there is an open spot that comes up, then I'll take it.

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<br />Douglas,<br /><br />Your statment is a bit misleading.<br />Last year was the first year that we did 2 dungeons - 1 module. <br />In the past there has been 1 dungeon, 05' there were 2 different dungeons and the players wanted to do both and many do mulitple runs.<br />With the introduction of 2 dungeons-1 module the number of runs were cut down by individuals and free space in the player base for the new players. It did not mean that we lost 40% of our players from the year before. But that the players reduced the number of runs they did, allowing new numbers to come into the fold.<br />

<br /><br />Joyus,<br /><br />(grrr... second time I am typing this).  It would be interesting to analyze the new vs. old player distributions and track trends but alas I don't have access to the data base by year so I just go by the XP database.   Having said that, I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying.  I am not saying that we lost 40% of our players.  That would assume that all of the returning players were able to get tickets which we know not to be true.  And while the decision to go to 1 module did impact dual runs, I think the impact might be smaller than you may think.  There are many people that go on multiple runs because of the subtle dungeon differences, the Normal vs. Hardcord options, and just based on different friend groups.  <br /><br />Based on the XP database, we have had 6339 total players.<br /><br />Level 1 - 973<br />Level 2 - 4346<br />Level 3 - 909<br />Level 4 - 111<br /><br />Clearly the level 4s and most of the level 3s are the die hards but that is only ~15% of the total players.  A random sampling of the level 2s shows that about 1/2 of the Indy '06 players were new.  Beyond that its all speculation on players that weren't able to get tickets vs. didn't try.<br /><br />But the point is, if the percentage of new players doesn't shrink below 40% then this is an indication that retention isn't where it should be and we are consuming a finite pool of players that are willing to spend $35 on a 2-hour event.  <br />

<br /><br />Douglas,<br /><br />I look at the same data you do, and come up with the opposite conclusion.  I think it's healthy that there are so many new players trying True Dungeon, and that increases the base of players out there that have played True Dungeon and may play it again.  I think there are many reasons why someone might play True Dungeon one year and not play the next, including not attending this year of GENCON, not being able to get tickets, or just wanting to do something different this year and maybe go back to True Dungeon next year.  I have friends that enjoy True Dungeon but that aren't going to play it every year.  There is so much to offer at GENCON they want to try different things, but they will come back to it in future years.<br /><br />If the statistics were reversed, and 85% of the people were level 3 or 4 - THAT would worry me.  That would indicate that there are few new people wanting to play, and that once the existing base stopped playing there might not be new people to take their place.  I think a large influx of new people each year is VERY positive.  <br /><br />I think the fact that True Dungeon is selling out faster and faster every year indicates that the number of people wanting to play is increasing each year, not decreasing.  And the only reason all those new people are rushing to get tickets is the good word of mouth of the event from people that play.  I think True Dungeon is healthier each year, and it's building a large pool of people that will want to get tickets to play - maybe not everybody every year, but certainly many more each year than there is the capacity for. <br /><br />It's not accurate to say that there is a finite pool of possible people either.  True Dungeon can accomodate maybe 10% of the total GENCON attendees - less than that when you take into account repeat runs.  I would venture a guess that there are more than 3000 new people at GENCON each year, and if that's true then the pool of potential people is replenishing itself faster than True Dungeon could absorb them.  <br /><br />Mike

Mike,<br /><br />Thanks for the feedback.  It’s an interesting philosophical topic.  Here are some more thoughts:<br /><br />Certainly there are many reasons that a person might not come to GenCon from year to year.  That’s taken into account.  But look at the extremes.  It would not be healthy if new players made up 100% of the players in any given year.  This would be extremely concerning as it means that you have zero customer retention.  At the other extreme if 100% of the players were returning players, this would be concerning as well, but less so.  It would mean that there is zero growth and attrition would eventually take its toll on ticket sales.<br /><br />So given that both extremes are not good, this means that there exists an ideal percentage of new players.    A lot of research has been done on this in business schools and the ideal percentage depends on the Business Model for a given company.<br /><br />But ultimately the goal is to grow and then maintain a healthy customer base.  This is done through customer retention (a quality event and availability) and growth of the customer base through a stream of new players (advertising and word of mouth).  True Dungeon is odd though in that there are a fixed number of slots.  So we need to look at the percentages of new customers (among other things) to gauge growth and health of the customer base.  But it is a mistake to draw the conclusion that faster sales means an increase in this customer base.  People hear about quick sales and people are afraid of getting shut out.  So they try harder and earlier to get the slots they and their friends want.  <br /><br />So what is the ideal percentage?  I don't know.  But think of it this way.  As the player base grows, the need for growth decreases.  In the beginning, businesses need rapid growth but when you are producing at capacity like True Dungeon is doing now, it is retention that becomes more important.  <br /><br />So yes, of course True Dungeon wants a player base larger that the capacity provided because there are reasons why a certain percentage of the existing player base will not play each year, can't get time off work, can't afford it, other events going on, etc.  You can also leverage the size of your customer base and increase prices (if Jeff wanted to go that route).  But when there are 10,000 players who want to play True Dungeon, do we need a significant percentage of players to be new?  Only in so much as that it counters attrition to the customer base.  Beyond that, an increasing percentage of new players should be a warning sign.<br /><br />-Douglas<br /><br /><br />

What was this topic about again?  hehehehehe :evil6: