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TOPIC: Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes?

Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes? 3 months 5 days ago #25

I think part of the issue with the current year is that the tokens aren't that attractive. The Ancients set started as a stat bumping set to align with changes to Int/Wis/Cha that never materialized. The set was redesigned and while it offers a solid way for some classes to get to level 5, it provides only a handful of tokens that more veteran players would be interested in. Next year's tokens look more interesting for veterans and offer some BiS items, but you can't print new BiS every year (or at least I am not sure you should).

Long term though I don't think that the collectors market will recover to previous highs. VTD+Skull Con was a unique moment in the game where new players were entering the market and veterans were motivated to spend a little more.

I don't know what the future will look like but I don't think the current 8K model is necessarily the right way to go. I think TD needs a more consistent ways for new players to start building up their characters that doesn't take finding token reseller websites or taking part in auctions. I would like to see a change where the $250 order came with 2 PYPs. Maybe an evergreen list of class specific URs that are always available directly from TD (along with maybe a few of the UR sets that get you to +1 level). The game needs to be focused on newer players joining and feeling like there is a clear path forward.

If you grow the player base the secondary market can be more focused on relic and above which I think is more sustainable. Right now if you try to liquidate relic or legendary you are selling to the existing veterans and demand is not there. You need a pipeline of new players that are looking to play nightmare and epic to keep the market stable.

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Last edit: by OrionW.

Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes? 3 months 5 days ago #26

Kirk Bauer wrote: I don't know what is causing the values of many tokens, including URs, to drop. But it is definitely happening. And it doesn't just affect resellers like Mike (and me).

It also affects players looking to exit the game for one reason or another. There are builds that I might have purchased for $2k five years ago that I might offer $300 for today. For everybody here who, mostly, is not trying to liquidate their collection, imagine if your build that you spent $5k to $10k on is only worth $500-$1,000 in 5 years if you decide to stop playing.

And I understand that's a "future self" problem. But I think it can have an impact now. When I first got into collecting tokens, one of the ways I rationalized it was with the knowledge that I could recoup most of the money I spent if I ever needed to. I imagine that more players today have less confidence that tokens will maintain their value. I think that, for at least some people, that will limit or eliminate their interest in spending money on tokens today.

This of this another way. What if was impossible to ever sell tokens. Once you bought or otherwise obtained a token, you would never be able to sell it. How many players would have 10x Charms of Avarice? Builds full of legendaries? I imagine a lot fewer. The resale market matters to everybody. And, in my opinion, having a number of strong retailers who are willing and able to buy collections at reasonable prices is important. We may be on a path where that will no longer be the case.

I have no idea what impact, if any, treasure draws have on this, though.


+1
"Many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our point of view" - Obi Wan Kenobi

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Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes? 3 months 5 days ago #27

Wade Schwendemann (Dr. Uid) wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Grizwald wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

kurtreznor wrote: Why are you so intent to raise the price of URs? If anything should be removed from the treasure boxes, it should be the transmuted items (all levels). Replace them with new treasure box only items.
Then there would be distinct treasure pull items, distinct transmuted items, and the base set (which is also available in the treasure box...including URs).


To me, I see the ongoing drop in value of URs as a danger sign of the health of TD in general. Ultra Rares (PYP and Random "00" URs) are a pretty big part of the $8K package, and if they drop in value too much, it might negatively impact token sales. I don't think True Dungeon can survive in it's current form without a significant amount of token sales. I think lower UR values already made it harder for $8K auctions to fund. We're well behind last year's pace, and I think the only $8K auctions that are currently running are on Trent's website.

And again - I'm not saying treasure boxes would revert just to U/R/MB tokens, I'm saying URs (and maybe Relics/Legendaries) would be replaced by Dungeon only tokens like the Idols of similar value.

I'm totally fine if TD doesn't want to move that direction, I'm just tossing the idea out there for consideration.


If an $8K funds with URs at $200 a piece, how much does TD make? $8K
If an $8K funds with URs at $20 a piece, how much does TD make? $8K

TD doesn't really care about the value of URs. Unless they are willing to start directly selling URs to the public and having control on the price the values will change. The only people who care are 3rd party vendors.


I think what matters to TD is how many $8K auctions fund (and the total token sales of course), and it looks like there are less funding this year than last, which would be a drop in revenue for TD if that trend continues.


This is true, and almost certainly because.of no new TE token this year.

Compare to this year to 2 years ago And 2026 for a better comparison.


I also think it's because some of the bigger players have gotten out.
"Many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our point of view" - Obi Wan Kenobi

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Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes? 3 months 5 days ago #28

How about instead of random URs, they seed a token that can be used in place of a UR in a relic/legendary recipe? I would think it would command a slight premium over a new UR, especially if you needed an OOP UR token to complete an older Legendary recipe. Maybe allow it for anything other than a TE transmute so it won't mess with the CoA recipe. They could even replace maybe half the URs they seed now with the redeemable token so it could help prop up the price of the URs if their inclusion in the treasure mix is really causing an issue.

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Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes? 3 months 5 days ago #29

Wouldn't that just be an omni orb or cube?
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Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes? 3 months 5 days ago #30

Didn't realize that was even a thing, yikes!

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Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes? 3 months 5 days ago #31

I’ve seen a few people refer to Chad selling off his collection as a “fire sale” - and in this thread I’ve seen someone claim Chad and Ed’s combined collections would total around a million dollars in value.

Can anyone corroborate either or both of those characterizations?

For me a “fire sale” would have to be at a discount of at least 30%, probably more like 50%, and possibly reaching as high as 90%.

Was Chad selling tons of legendries under $600, and URs in the $20-50 range?

Here is one way Chad and Ed's liquidated collections could have come to $1,000,000:

* 500 legendries or Skull of Cavadar at around $650 each
* Plus 1,300 relic, Shirt of the Arcanum and Kilt of Dungeonbane tokens averaging $250 each
* Plus 4,400 URs at around $75 each

This seems extremely implausible to me. Back when Chad had a forum store, I don't ever recall him listing more than a few hundred URs. When he ran eBay sales, I don't recall him ever listing more than a dozen or so legendaries and a few dozen total listings at a time.

Trent and Kirk’s stores today seem to offer a combined total of around 120 legendaries for sale, with a retail value of around $120k.

Note: I care about the accuracy of this because "$1,000,000 of retail value high end tokens was sold over the last 2 years or so at 30-90% discount" probably does a good job of explaining a lot about price movements over that time period. But if that didn't happen, then it doesn't explain it.

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Last edit: by Matthew Hayward.

Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes? 3 months 5 days ago #32

Matthew Hayward wrote: I’ve seen a few people refer to Chad selling off his collection as a “fire sale” - and in this thread I’ve seen someone claim Chad and Ed’s combined collections would total around a million dollars in value.

Can anyone corroborate either or both of those characterizations?

For me a “fire sale” would have to be at a discount of at least 30%, probably more like 50%, and possibly reaching as high as 90%.

Was Chad selling tons of legendries under $600, and URs in the $20-50 range?

Here is one way Chad and Ed's liquidated collections could have come to $1,000,000:

* 500 legendries or Skull of Cavadar at around $650 each
* Plus 1,300 relic, Shirt of the Arcanum and Kilt of Dungeonbane tokens averaging $250 each
* Plus 4,400 URs at around $75 each

This seems extremely implausible to me. Back when Chad had a forum store, I don't ever recall him listing more than a few hundred URs. When he ran eBay sales, I don't recall him ever listing more than a dozen or so legendaries and a few dozen total listings at a time.

Trent and Kirk’s stores today seem to offer a combined total of around 120 legendaries for sale, with a retail value of around $120k.

Note: I care about the accuracy of this because "$1,000,000 of retail value high end tokens was sold over the last 2 years or so at 30-90% discount" probably does a good job of explaining a lot about price movements over that time period. But if that didn't happen, then it doesn't explain it.


I'd bet a million dollars that their combined collections were nowhere close to a million dollars. I have a decent data point. I bought Ed's collection.

EDIT - Most of his collection
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Last edit: by Rob F.

Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes? 3 months 5 days ago #33

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Matthew Hayward wrote: I’ve seen a few people refer to Chad selling off his collection as a “fire sale” - and in this thread I’ve seen someone claim Chad and Ed’s combined collections would total around a million dollars in value.

Can anyone corroborate either or both of those characterizations?

For me a “fire sale” would have to be at a discount of at least 30%, probably more like 50%, and possibly reaching as high as 90%.

Was Chad selling tons of legendries under $600, and URs in the $20-50 range?

Here is one way Chad and Ed's liquidated collections could have come to $1,000,000:

* 500 legendries or Skull of Cavadar at around $650 each
* Plus 1,300 relic, Shirt of the Arcanum and Kilt of Dungeonbane tokens averaging $250 each
* Plus 4,400 URs at around $75 each

This seems extremely implausible to me. Back when Chad had a forum store, I don't ever recall him listing more than a few hundred URs. When he ran eBay sales, I don't recall him ever listing more than a dozen or so legendaries and a few dozen total listings at a time.

Trent and Kirk’s stores today seem to offer a combined total of around 120 legendaries for sale, with a retail value of around $120k.

Note: I care about the accuracy of this because "$1,000,000 of retail value high end tokens was sold over the last 2 years or so at 30-90% discount" probably does a good job of explaining a lot about price movements over that time period. But if that didn't happen, then it doesn't explain it.


I have an old spread sheet from Laz, but it's a good but into him selling off his collection. If what I was told was to be believed he had already sold the majority of his collection by the time I asked for prices.

From a quick glance it's total is about 400k remaining (including TGs) when I inquired, and when I bought from him I got I think 55% off list price at the end of it all iirc. I know my Widseths I was $500

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Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes? 3 months 5 days ago #34

I am with Rob on this one. I too would bet a million that their combined collections were not.

I saw Chad's sheet as well. I know his wasn't even close to half when I saw it.

He also didn't "fire sale." He sold things for what he had paid for them, not trying to make a profit. Source was a direct conversation.

I think we have multiple things impacting current pricing, and treasure mix probably is about 4th on that list.

1. Not enough new players to drive demand, which probably includes a lot of loaning of tokens in VTD.

2. More 8K purchases by the same small groups, as people are preparing to build things like safeholds. This includes other new rewards like marks, path fragments,etc.

3. Newer conventions often having 4 room dungeons where you can't use outside tokens (return to origins, San Japan I believe)

4. More treasure and the UR+ they bring.

5. Recent large sales of old collections at the price they were purchased for.


Maybe I have these out of order, and I'm sure there are some I didn't think of.
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Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes? 3 months 5 days ago #35

Matthew Hayward wrote: According to docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k9QxmpnSR57RtdrhXnL2hiNd43Rh1N7MrhO2B8olsZ4/htmlview ultra rares make up 0.78% of treasure.

A virtual TD has about 100 runs, with 1,000 tickets total.

Assuming the average treasure per ticket is 20 pulls, one VTD weekend distributed around 20,000 treasure, which will include around 156 total URs.

It looks like you used 1 VTD to determine the % instead 3, which is .69%. On your theoretical 20k it is 138 pulls. I am saying that invalidates or validates your argument as I am not stepping into this one because we don’t have enough data, imo, nor has a clear problem been defined , again imo. I just want there to be cleaner data when we do have it.
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Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes? 3 months 5 days ago #36

Wade Schwendemann (Dr. Uid) wrote: I am with Rob on this one. I too would bet a million that their combined collections were not.

I saw Chad's sheet as well. I know his wasn't even close to half when I saw it.

He also didn't "fire sale." He sold things for what he had paid for them, not trying to make a profit. Source was a direct conversation.

I think we have multiple things impacting current pricing, and treasure mix probably is about 4th on that list.

1. Not enough new players to drive demand, which probably includes a lot of loaning of tokens in VTD.

2. More 8K purchases by the same small groups, as people are preparing to build things like safeholds. This includes other new rewards like marks, path fragments,etc.

3. Newer conventions often having 4 room dungeons where you can't use outside tokens (return to origins, San Japan I believe)

4. More treasure and the UR+ they bring.

5. Recent large sales of old collections at the price they were purchased for.


Maybe I have these out of order, and I'm sure there are some I didn't think of.


I think you've got the right 5 things and I definitely agree with the order of the top 2. I don't disagree with the others, but think you could build an argument for shifting the priority of those a little.

Like any other market, it comes down to supply versus demand. I think another reason is that with Safehold and future Mythic transmutes, there has been a slow migration toward higher level transmutes that create more and more demand for trade goods. Demand for URs haven't kept pace because URs are not currently part of those recipes. We'll have to see what impact Mythic Core will have, but depending upon how many of those are required, that will generate more demand for URs. I personally know of 100s of URs that have already been set aside just on the prospect they will be needed for Mythic Core.

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