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TOPIC: Treasure creep constructive ideas

Treasure creep constructive ideas 2 months 1 week ago #1

Since 2012, we've gone from 10 draws for max TE to max TE's of 25 next year. Of the 25, all but 8 are out of print (base 3, level 6 +1, and +4 with in-print TE's.)

TE's are huge sellers for TD because it brings in sales from both established veteran players and new players. Re-prints of TE's would likely not sell as well since vets wouldn't necessarily need duplicates (though, many big collectors would likely buy quite a bit to generate COAs (or equivalents) since they seem to have good resale value above transmute costs.

Adding more and more TE's has a financial drawback for TD of putting more URs+ into distribution through random treasure draws (meaning those wouldn't be sold in $250 orders, etc..) if treasure distribution never changed. However, we have seen dilution of draws pace pretty closely with added TE's.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IF_HSFz7AaPHdxPOlOMoaMY4iR-RRIlDMduCVyQ_XLA/edit#gid=51146011

Over the past several years, we've also seen dilution of the treasure draws themselves. Depending on how you measure it, we went from 1% to 1.25% of draws being UR's or higher dating back to 2015 to today's 0.7% to 0.8%. While we get more draws, the relative value of the draws is diluted. Doing the math, the added TE's since 2016 seem to be only marginally better than draw value pre-dilution. Our treasure draws went up from 17 in 2015 to 23 in 2022 (a 27% increase) while UR+ draw rate dropped between 22% to 40%. We do get more UC and Rares that value trade good value plus MB's, etc so it isn't completely apples to apples but it looks like the added TE's seem to result in fairly similar nominal draw value despite the added draws.

The challenge is that anyone who isn't at max treasure is getting less value from draws as more TEs are printed and more dilution comes into play. This particularly negatively impacts newer players. Remember, to get to max TE next year, best case is spending $2,500 to get the set of TE's that are out of print (likely spending more) plus 2 more TE's in-print (or recently in print.) The gulf between max TE veterans in treasure draws and newer players is getting bigger and bigger with the value of draws for the new players being lower because of TE inflation. I keep seeing that gulf discourage new players from collecting because it seems insurmountable for draws to become really valuable for them.

Ideas/Solutions:
New Variant CoA recipe - using TE's starting with the 2023 bead. That recipe could include some older tokens like the AoTF, etc as variant components as well (like using the point system.) Announce it in 2023 using 4 tokens released between 2023 and 2026 (1 new one each year.) This could make CoA's available at or less than $1,000.
Change treasure composition to have more non-standard items with fewer standard URs (ie include more volunteer URs, etc..) so that dilution isn't needed (keeping the value per draw stable by having more new items in the mix.) Having alternate components for the Totem in 2023 and 2024 out of draws would be a huge step in that direction. Non-diluted draws means only having 8 draws is still a big deal.
Include OOP TE's in treasure draws
Cap treasure draws at 25 - Option 1 - Keep creating new TE tokens but in a variety of slots. People already at 25 may buy the new ones to free up slots like Ioun Stones and Beads depending on where the new ones appear. Some slots aren't as important to builds today (shins, neck for bard/paladin, feet for those without BoFW, etc..) Option 2 - Cap at 25 but let overage be shared with other players to get them to max. Option 3 - Cap at 25 but let overage be exchanged for in-game bonuses (such as +1 draw = +1 to hit or damage, or +1 saves, etc..)

Thoughts?

Fred
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Treasure creep constructive ideas 2 months 1 week ago #2

The last three TE URs and the next one are all +2 Chips each. That works out to +1 Chip per year. Is that a problem that really needs to be solved, or is that an acceptable rate of increase? Not everyone will be getting max chips if the older TE tokens aren't reprinted. A new +2 TE UR every other year will continue to generate significant revenue for True Dungeon, moving to a cap or to reprints might reduce TD revenue.

I think it's possible that allowing a new way to make CoA might have a bigger impact on treasure pulls than creating new +2 Chip TE URs will have. A new recipe with in-print TE URs for CoA would result in far more people having CoA tokens and getting the +13 pulls per dungeon from it.

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Last edit: by Mike Steele.

Treasure creep constructive ideas 2 months 1 week ago #3

In addition to the value of individual draws, there's also the glut of trade goods to consider. As discussed on the transmute recipe thread, there are a lot of trade goods out there, and TD wants to sop them up with more expensive recipes. This again hurts the newer players who don't have oodles of tokens to transmute, as it makes it harder for them to get their first transmutes, much less ever get to a legendary. The more tokens people get to draw, the more trade goods there will be floating around, and the more TD will need to increase the recipes in order to drive demand for 8k orders.

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Treasure creep constructive ideas 2 months 1 week ago #4

Zorblak wrote: In addition to the value of individual draws, there's also the glut of trade goods to consider. As discussed on the transmute recipe thread, there are a lot of trade goods out there, and TD wants to sop them up with more expensive recipes. This again hurts the newer players who don't have oodles of tokens to transmute, as it makes it harder for them to get their first transmutes, much less ever get to a legendary. The more tokens people get to draw, the more trade goods there will be floating around, and the more TD will need to increase the recipes in order to drive demand for 8k orders.


The treasure maps worked well to soak up excess trade goods - it doesn’t have to extend to bigger transmutes. Of course, that means more treasure draws but at a lower number of draws than what caused the gluts (10% as many.)

I agree the current transmute recipes are unappealing for newer players.

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Treasure creep constructive ideas 2 months 1 week ago #5

I'm going to dust off my "How to never discuss UR TEs again while most of those currently commenting are still alive."

Step 1: Set a treasure cap of something like 28 (assuming CoA2 gives 11. Adjust cap dependent on what CoA2 actually gives).

Step 2: print the necessary 2023, 2025, and 2027 UR TEs to make the CoA2. Allowing a cheaper recipe using 2023, 2025 and AoTF.

Step 3: for the next 48 years print a new unique slotless +1 Treasure UR every other year. Every 8 years offer transmutes to consolidate the past 4 years tokens to make a +4 slotless UR to cut down on weight/storage. Every 24 years open up a grand legendary (or whatever name makes sense beyond Legendary) that combines the three +4 Treasure slotless Legendaries into a +12 Treasure slotless Grand Legendary.

Step 4: (stolen somewhat from Hayward) For the +1 tokens (and maybe the 2023, 2025, and 2027 as well), in addition to offering them as URs, make them a timeless transmutable item so they are always available.

Benefit 1: This provides multiple ways for people to get to max treasure.
Benefit 2: Vets will have a reason to keep buying TEs (to free up slots).
Benefit 3: People that have held onto the AoTF get a benefit for doing so, while others are not shut out
Benefit 4: as vets hit max treasure and want to free up slots, things like the nuggets re-enter circulation at a higher rate, and even CoAs eventually are likely to regularly re-enter circulation as people shift to their slotless TEs.
Benefit 5: Treasure dilution should stabilize
Benefit 6: we don't have to talk about TEs again for 50 years or so.

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Treasure creep constructive ideas 2 months 1 week ago #6

2077 is going to a brutal year on the forums, but otherwise love the idea of a predictable TE schedule going forward. They tend to be the least interesting of the tokens.

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Treasure creep constructive ideas 2 months 1 week ago #7

Fiddy wrote: I'm going to dust off my "How to never discuss UR TEs again while most of those currently commenting are still alive."

Step 1: Set a treasure cap of something like 28 (assuming CoA2 gives 11. Adjust cap dependent on what CoA2 actually gives).

Step 2: print the necessary 2023, 2025, and 2027 UR TEs to make the CoA2. Allowing a cheaper recipe using 2023, 2025 and AoTF.

Step 3: for the next 48 years print a new unique slotless +1 Treasure UR every other year. Every 8 years offer transmutes to consolidate the past 4 years tokens to make a +4 slotless UR to cut down on weight/storage. Every 24 years open up a grand legendary (or whatever name makes sense beyond Legendary) that combines the three +4 Treasure slotless Legendaries into a +12 Treasure slotless Grand Legendary.

Step 4: (stolen somewhat from Hayward) For the +1 tokens (and maybe the 2023, 2025, and 2027 as well), in addition to offering them as URs, make them a timeless transmutable item so they are always available.

Benefit 1: This provides multiple ways for people to get to max treasure.
Benefit 2: Vets will have a reason to keep buying TEs (to free up slots).
Benefit 3: People that have held onto the AoTF get a benefit for doing so, while others are not shut out
Benefit 4: as vets hit max treasure and want to free up slots, things like the nuggets re-enter circulation at a higher rate, and even CoAs eventually are likely to regularly re-enter circulation as people shift to their slotless TEs.
Benefit 5: Treasure dilution should stabilize
Benefit 6: we don't have to talk about TEs again for 50 years or so.


One flaw in that design is that in a few years people will be complaining that they missed out on the first few slotless +1 TE Tokens, and want them reprinted. In 10 years you'd have people very vocally complaining every design cycle that TD should let them catch up on the 10 that they missed.

I also am not sure you're correct that vets will buy these as PYPs in order to free up slots that current TE tokens are taking. I know that I wouldn't buy any of these for my group, I'd stick with the TE tokens I've got rather than spending more money on PYPs. The COA alone would cost me 130 PYPs for my group to replace, and take 13 years of buying PYPs to do so.

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Last edit: by Mike Steele.

Treasure creep constructive ideas 2 months 1 week ago #8

OrionW wrote: 2077 is going to a brutal year on the forums, but otherwise love the idea of a predictable TE schedule going forward. They tend to be the least interesting of the tokens.


If I’m still doing this when I’m 87…. I think my wheel chair will be decked out with cem lights, and a token cannon ( to shoot my arrows out of )… maybe a fog machine for special effects X-D

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Treasure creep constructive ideas 2 months 1 week ago #9

Mike Steele wrote:

Fiddy wrote: Step 4: (stolen somewhat from Hayward) For the +1 tokens (and maybe the 2023, 2025, and 2027 as well), in addition to offering them as URs, make them a timeless transmutable item so they are always available.


One flaw in that design is that in a few years people will be complaining that they missed out on the first few slotless +1 TE Tokens, and want them reprinted. In 10 years you'd have people very vocally complaining every design cycle that TD should let them catch up on the 10 that they missed.


You either missed Step 4 or I'm misunderstanding your concern.

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Treasure creep constructive ideas 2 months 1 week ago #10

Fiddy wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Fiddy wrote: Step 4: (stolen somewhat from Hayward) For the +1 tokens (and maybe the 2023, 2025, and 2027 as well), in addition to offering them as URs, make them a timeless transmutable item so they are always available.


One flaw in that design is that in a few years people will be complaining that they missed out on the first few slotless +1 TE Tokens, and want them reprinted. In 10 years you'd have people very vocally complaining every design cycle that TD should let them catch up on the 10 that they missed.


You either missed Step 4 or I'm misunderstanding your concern.


I probably missed it, but also don't understand it. Is the proposal that each +1 TE token is available as a PYP, but also as an eternal transmuted token? So in year 6, you can buy a new one as a PYP and somehow still transmute the other 5? If they never go out of print, then there will be zero of them bought as "extras" for resale or trading, which I suspect is a large part of the sales.

I suspect sales would be pretty low, none would be bought beyond what people are actually going to use, and there are probably a lot of people like me that would just keep using the TE tokens they have rather than buying 25 different +1 TE URs over a 25 year time period to replace them.

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Treasure creep constructive ideas 2 months 1 week ago #11

Fiddy wrote: I'm going to dust off my "How to never discuss UR TEs again while most of those currently commenting are still alive."

Step 1: Set a treasure cap of something like 28 (assuming CoA2 gives 11. Adjust cap dependent on what CoA2 actually gives).

Step 2: print the necessary 2023, 2025, and 2027 UR TEs to make the CoA2. Allowing a cheaper recipe using 2023, 2025 and AoTF.

Step 3: for the next 48 years print a new unique slotless +1 Treasure UR every other year. Every 8 years offer transmutes to consolidate the past 4 years tokens to make a +4 slotless UR to cut down on weight/storage. Every 24 years open up a grand legendary (or whatever name makes sense beyond Legendary) that combines the three +4 Treasure slotless Legendaries into a +12 Treasure slotless Grand Legendary.

Step 4: (stolen somewhat from Hayward) For the +1 tokens (and maybe the 2023, 2025, and 2027 as well), in addition to offering them as URs, make them a timeless transmutable item so they are always available.

Benefit 1: This provides multiple ways for people to get to max treasure.
Benefit 2: Vets will have a reason to keep buying TEs (to free up slots).
Benefit 3: People that have held onto the AoTF get a benefit for doing so, while others are not shut out
Benefit 4: as vets hit max treasure and want to free up slots, things like the nuggets re-enter circulation at a higher rate, and even CoAs eventually are likely to regularly re-enter circulation as people shift to their slotless TEs.
Benefit 5: Treasure dilution should stabilize
Benefit 6: we don't have to talk about TEs again for 50 years or so.


+1 AS WRITTEN....I think if we would stop tweaking every idea to fit our mindset, we could then settle. I for one like this as-is.
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Treasure creep constructive ideas 2 months 1 week ago #12

Mike Steele wrote:

Fiddy wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Fiddy wrote: Step 4: (stolen somewhat from Hayward) For the +1 tokens (and maybe the 2023, 2025, and 2027 as well), in addition to offering them as URs, make them a timeless transmutable item so they are always available.


One flaw in that design is that in a few years people will be complaining that they missed out on the first few slotless +1 TE Tokens, and want them reprinted. In 10 years you'd have people very vocally complaining every design cycle that TD should let them catch up on the 10 that they missed.


You either missed Step 4 or I'm misunderstanding your concern.


I probably missed it, but also don't understand it. Is the proposal that each +1 TE token is available as a PYP, but also as an eternal transmuted token? So in year 6, you can buy a new one as a PYP and somehow still transmute the other 5? If they never go out of print, then there will be zero of them bought as "extras" for resale or trading, which I suspect is a large part of the sales.


That assumes that the recipe is set to roughly the same cost as a PYP. That doesn't have to be the case. The recipe could be targeted at a cost somewhere around 1.5x a PYP. And since this is treading somewhat new ground not necessarily covered by precedent, you could even have the recipes adjust over time (with some amount of proper advance notice).

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