Since VTD started, I've been participating in sealed pack runs just using 10 packs then adding another 10 pack along with 4 treasures and the respective completion tokens.
We've seen a pattern forming that is concerning and seems to confirm feedback about TD we've heard from people who tried it then didn't return.
It appears virtually all runs are set up so that, on normal, barring terrible luck or badly bumbling your way through the dungeon, that you make it to room 7.
However, if it is a combat room in room 7, the pattern of late is that there is very little chance to actually win regardless of how skilled you are as players.
The feedback you hear sometimes from new players is that getting crushed in room 7 where it seems like you didn't dent the opponent left a bad taste in their mouth resulting in them likely not returning.
Take V6 as an example (stop scrolling if you don't want spoilers here.)
Assume a typical 10 pack party will average about +4 to +5 to hit and +5 to +8 damage for melee (these would be unusually lucky 10 packs that worked out that neatly.) With a +4.5 to hit, melee players would hit about 10% of the time. Average damage would be 10-15 per attack (including rage, sneak, etc..). With DR 10 (I recall the beast's being higher), that gives you 0-5 damage per hit. Let's assume 5 net damage and 20% of attacks hit. Each attack would average 1 damage per attack. 8 melee attacks would yield 8 total melee damage per round.
OK - so this isn't a great creature for killing in melee - your spellcasters have to save you. That happens sometimes. The problem this time is that it has DR against almost all spells. Assume no spells were cast to reach room 7 and you make 100% of your skill checks (not terribly realistic but helps for the model.) Your elf wizard uses the spell the creature is vulnerable to but will only have a +2 to +3 damage bonus. Best case, that caster does 9 damage a round. Your other casters (assume another 2 more and the cleric is extending everyone by 1-2 rounds to get to round 5) are doing partial damage. Let's assume 8 damage a round for them as well. Total caster damage would be around 25/round for a net of 33.
The party then averages taking 8-10 damage each (taking into account misses.) Even with healing assuming zero healing spells cast previously, that means a TPK in 5 rounds if the battle isn't won.
Assuming everyone makes their saves and everything lines up nearly perfectly, the party, in 5 rounds could do 165 damage.
The challenge is, with the stars aligning near perfectly, the party gets wiped.
A more realistic scenario doesn't go 5 full rounds and only goes 3. We saw it multiple times - you get crushed at normal difficulty and it wasn't from bad rolls or bad tactics. That has happened in at least 3 of the 5 virtual dungeons so far and had become more common in in-person events previously.
It is completely ok to lose and should probably happen the majority of the time. We are likely pushing new players away when they get obliterated and it seemed like they didn't have a chance.
I would recommend never having a final boss on normal have DR above 5 or an AC above 20 (if it has normal hp - high AC is fine for low hp creatures) so you can have it competitive with an average 10 pack. If it has high hp - give clues for things that any character could have to do much higher damage (sharp versus blunt attacks, etc..) As a creature is wounded, have it display it is somewhat injured (maybe losing a leg or (multiple in the beast's case) when you hit 50% of its hp.)
My suggestion is to have it work out where 20% of groups with 10 packs can win a room 7 combat if they play well and that virtually all of them "bloody" the monster where it was visible that they had a shot to win.
Fred