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TOPIC: Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags

Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #13

All very interesting information to be sure! Thanks for the contributions!

I come from the perspective of a relatively new, not top end or even high end player who might not have or had access to a lot of tokens. My builds still see a lot of value in rare and even some of the better uncommon tokens. I have no clue how many top tier players their are out there that would only ever be interested in UR+ at this point or just TG. If they are collectors too they probably either invest in their own CUR set each year or just outright buy a CUR set. But I'd suspect there are hundreds, if not thousands, of players who would benefit from a decent price on a rare or uncommon bag.

That being said, if a rare or uncommon bag of tokens was available on auction I myself believe they are WAY more cost effective than a $250 order. I mean think about it. If a person were to get a deal where they spent $90 on a rare bag, $50 on a UC bag, and $110 on a PYP (all prices I've seen these go for), They get 4x as many rare and uncommon tokens without the chaff and are not out any more money. Again, as a new player IMHO this is a value no brainer.

There is wisdom in the opinion that the value is ultimately what an individual places on them. So yes, it's never going to be the same for each person. Thus, why token auctions work! HA!

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #14

Casey Wren wrote: There is wisdom in the opinion that the value is ultimately what an individual places on them. So yes, it's never going to be the same for each person. Thus, why token auctions work! HA!


Absolutely. We all place different values on different tokens. Just like we all have different ways we play the game.

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #15

Casey Wren wrote: That being said, if a rare or uncommon bag of tokens was available on auction I myself believe they are WAY more cost effective than a $250 order. I mean think about it. If a person were to get a deal where they spent $90 on a rare bag, $50 on a UC bag, and $110 on a PYP (all prices I've seen these go for), They get 4x as many rare and uncommon tokens without the chaff and are not out any more money. Again, as a new player IMHO this is a value no brainer.


IMO, a rare bag can be the single cost effective way to outfit a new group of 10 players. But it's really dependent on the quality of the rare set year to year.

One of the challenges is that class staples tend to get spread across multiple years. Melee characters almost always have a good number of weapons, armors, and helpful items. Starting in 2016, casters tend to get 1 item per year that adds to healing/damage... except in 2019, where they got nothing in standard packs :(

Reminds me that Rare staff/baton of focus should probably get brought up for reprints. Last printed in 2016/2017 respectively. They're still relatively available from the usual sellers, but I'm always a fan of availability from primary sources.

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #16

David Harris wrote: Agree with all the posters. I have an excel worksheet build that does the calculations just the way Dave posted above. My observation is it takes near to a $4k order worth of 120 rare bags to begin to get close to the standard distribution, and even then there will be 2-3 outlier on each side (low or high number). So with a single 120 bag you are betting your distribution is near enough to standard to make the expected value.


I ALSO have a spreadsheet...which will come as no surprise to most.
~Rebecca

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #17

jedibcg wrote: I am going to offer an alternative, though I am not saying previous posters are incorrect. The value is whatever people will pay for them. Period.


Yes... but the OP was asking "what methodology do you, gentle reader, use to determine what you'd pay for a bag of tokens" not "what is the value of a bag of tokens."

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #18

Matthew Hayward wrote:

jedibcg wrote: I am going to offer an alternative, though I am not saying previous posters are incorrect. The value is whatever people will pay for them. Period.


Yes... but the OP was asking "what methodology do you, gentle reader, use to determine what you'd pay for a bag of tokens" not "what is the value of a bag of tokens."


He also asked what we thought of this concept. I provided what I thought of the concept...and I also provided how I personally would value them.
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #19

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If it helps anyone my spreadsheet for trade goods per pack is here: truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=5&id=246175

Just take column E or F and multiply by the price of each trade good.
Classes Played: Barbarian (32 times), Monk (27), Ranger (20), Rogue (18), Cleric (13), Fighter (10), Dwarf Fighter (7), Druid (7), Paladin (7), Bard (4), Elf Wizard (2), Wizard (2)

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #20

I had some system, which may or may not be something like this, but this is what I'd use:

Assign a value to *me* for each uncommon or rare. That will likely involve mulching some of the tokens so means how much I would buy trade goods for, which might be $0 for something like DP due to getting enough through other ways. Total for a complete set. Divide by 40 to get average uncommon or rare value. Multiply by 240 or 120.

Note that this will change based on availability of singles, changes in trade good needs/valuations, etc. So, it's pretty tedious.

While forumites should be able to get single rares insanely cheap, I doubt they do. It's too much effort for people like me who have more rares and uncommons than they know what to do with to list them. I'd happily give away various stuff to people who would value it or sell for nominal amounts, like $1 for good rares, but it's too much effort. Putting something like "Have rares you might want for $1." in trade thread is also too much work on a buyer's part to chase when can go to one of the stores or do something like hunt for a bag of rares, as rare as those are.

Too much effort because the audience is wrong. The people who don't use the forums who give Gaming Etc. or whoever several bucks or $5 or $10 or whatever it is that I've never done are the audience that would love this stuff. Lot of us on the forums don't have use for hardly any uncommons or rares or will just get them in treasure, anyway. I wanted a rare bag from a few years ago, couldn't find one for a reasonable price, got everything I wanted through treasure, anyway. Meanwhile, not having to deal with sorting, storing (weight is a big deal with TD), transporting/shipping, packaging a bunch of stuff I don't want is preferable.

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #21

Part of the issue is there are so many groups of players that behave very differently.

First main group Those of us constantly on the forum. Mostly high end builds, most of us sale some tokens, likely playing all the VTD events. We see tokens very different than all other players, but we are also the ones most likely to run or bid on things in a auction most of the year.

Second group is players with high end builds but really only pay attention to TD close to cons (often only gencon). I’m sure these players do affect the auctions on either side of the cons they like to go to but most of the year they are doing other things.

3rd group is hardcore players. Players with very few if any URs but mostly rare builds. Most of these people are not on the forums most of the time. I think this group would value the rare bags a lot but a auction would need to be timed right to take advantage of them paying attention.
A few years ago I busted down rare bags to groups of 40 tokens for a auction shortly after gencon, new players loved them, but I think if I did a auction right now it would be a disaster.

4th group is new players or barley hardcore players. I would say this group is only going to buy within a month either said of a large convention, likely looking for a smaller assortment of tokens, may never buy into the game very much. This group would buy a 120 rare bag if they are in a group but not as an individual.

Just my opinions

TLDR
I think rare bags will sale better closer to conventions

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #22

Wayne Rhodes wrote: I think rare bags will sale better closer to conventions

I think this probably true of all token secondary sales.
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

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