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TOPIC: Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags

Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #1

I’ve recently had an interesting and quite lengthy discussion with a long time member of this community about what value we could appropriately place on the bags of rare and uncommon tokens you get in a condensed token order.

We kept coming back to differing opinions on what basis one would wish to use to determine this. We discussed two.

One would be from the basis of retail value. If you buy a $250 order of tokens there are quite a few calculations that can be made to determine reasonable “retail” value of both a rare and an uncommon token in this set. Though in many cases that is subjective, the hard set retail price of $250 does break down nicely based on percentage of tokens. And of course the PYP would have value in the $250 order as well so that would obviously need to be subtracted out.

The other method we discussed would be the basis of trade good intrinsic value. In this method one would identify the value of the total number of tokens in the bag determined by what trade goods they would commonly break down into. And the computation of TG value is based on the current after market rate of said TG. In this case year by year it would depend on both the flex of current TG needs based on yearly recipes, but also current supply and demand of said trade goods. While likely more appropriate to true value this method is very subjective indeed.

Note that each of these methods ignore the potential value of chase tokens randomly included in the set. How does that then relate the the overall value of a bg? Given the decades of TCG collectible values as an example, maybe there are theories that correspond here but I sure don’t know.

Again, while each method can be subjective it seems like a correlation could be made.But it got me thinking. What does the TD community think of this concept? What methodology would you use to calculate the value of a random bag of 120 rare or 240 uncommon tokens? And what is your theory behind this?

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #2

If you take TCG boxes into account they tell you that 80% of your rares and 99% of your uncommons have a value of $0. The core value of your card box is the UR+ cards in the box, the box topper card, etc and the remaining rare cards are valued at pennies on the dollar to what a pack costs.

You're likely to get $0.50-$1 for a rare from a pack of MtG if it's not core to a specific deck and that value is likely to be heavily dependent on people wanting to buy that rare, which is far from consistent.

For True Dungeon you have to assume the value of an Uncommon or Rare bag based on the total value of the converted trade goods that bag will turn in to, and allow a small percentage above that for chase tokens.

Most years you're not going to see ANY chase uncommons, so the value of that uncommon bag will be what it transmutes into.

The rare bag will be worth slightly more than it's pure transmute level given the chase rares in the bag, but you also have to take into account the time and effort put in to trade/sell those.

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #3

Assuming a standard distribution of tokens in each bag, for 2021 at the current TG prices, a 120 rare bag transmutes to $144 and 240 UC bag transmutes to $84 of TG. (These values change each year based on token mix)

This is based on the # of the tokens that make a TG in the mix of each type R/UC out of 40 and converted to %. Multiply the % times the number of draws (120/240). This will estimate the # of tokens you should get towards that TG. Then convert to TG points and divide by 25 to get the possible TG number. Take the TG # times the current market value of the TG and you get it’s total theoretical value from the bag.

However, If your draws are not distributed normally, this was all a waste of time.

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Last edit: by dave romanin.

Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #4

I calculate based on the expected value of the trade goods based on recent auction prices.

It is very hard to sell singles at rare and below - it’s hard to sell sealed packs even for more than $5 a piece or so.

There might be a few chase rares that are easy to sell - I recall potion of leaping attack going real fast.

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #5

I concur.

120.rares means 3 of each.

What does that translate to in trade goods?

What do those go for in general?
This year may be a bit different, as most want and don't have a full set of class neck rares (yet)

That'll do it for me.
First ever death in True Horde
"Well, with you guarding 2 players, that means you take 90. Are you dead?"
-Incognito

My token shop/trade thread: Wade's Wide World of Wonder 

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #6

Agree with all the posters. I have an excel worksheet build that does the calculations just the way Dave posted above. My observation is it takes near to a $4k order worth of 120 rare bags to begin to get close to the standard distribution, and even then there will be 2-3 outlier on each side (low or high number). So with a single 120 bag you are betting your distribution is near enough to standard to make the expected value.

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #7

Trade good standard distribution ... only if I want rares from the set.
--
macXdmg
Monk of the Painda Order
Bard of the College of Sick Beats

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #8

I am going to offer an alternative, though I am not saying previous posters are incorrect. The value is whatever people will pay for them. Period.

If someone is looking to convert the enter bag to trade goods they should know they are be taking a gamble that the distribution with be close to standard. Because it is a gamble they maybe willing to pay more or less depending on how they view that gamble. Similarly if someone is wanting the rarity for it value (either to themselves or others) they are alao taking a gamble as they don't know the contents.

Ultimately it will come down to those folks that want to these bags as to how much they want ro pay for them. I think we are too small of a market to have an excepted value on them without actual data of purchases, and still would be incorrect because as others have mentioned the tokens change year to year and the value of tokens change year to year.

There was a recent post about the raising price of trade goods which we don't even agree on.

If I wanted the bags, I would be looking to convert them to trade goods and this would value them for myself similarly to previous posters and then subtract some precentage for the gamble and work needed to convert them to trade goods. If I can just buy trade goods at that value then why gwt the bags which require more effort on my part?
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #9

jedibcg wrote: If I wanted the bags, I would be looking to convert them to trade goods and this would value them for myself similarly to previous posters and then subtract some precentage for the gamble and work needed to convert them to trade goods. If I can just buy trade goods at that value then why gwt the bags which require more effort on my part?


I'm basically in this camp. If there are specific Rares I want, I'll just buy them (or wait to draw them). And trade goods I'd rather buy than spend the time sorting through yet more tokens. So, to me I value the Rare and Uncommon bags around half what they tend to go for.

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #10

jedibcg wrote: I am going to offer an alternative, though I am not saying previous posters are incorrect. The value is whatever people will pay for them. Period.

If I wanted the bags, I would be looking to convert them to trade goods and this would value them for myself similarly to previous posters and then subtract some precentage for the gamble and work needed to convert them to trade goods. If I can just buy trade goods at that value then why gwt the bags which require more effort on my part?


Totally agree with your post. For me to prefer a bag over just buying trade goods it would mean I wanted a few of the rares (or uncommons) available. Like this year I might want a specific class neck or Ale Drinker's Bead or maybe I would like a few Scroll Lightning Bolt or Scroll Stone to Flesh. I may be willing to grab a bag hoping to get at least the standard distribution of these items and then mulch the rest.

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #11

I'd actually put the value at a bit below the value of the trade goods. If I order trade goods then I pay shipping once and I have them. If I get a bag then I pay a higher shipping rate for more tokens, then I have to spend an hour or two sorting and packing them, then I'm paying shipping again to send them into TDHQ.

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Theorycrafting the Value of Rare and Uncommon Token Bags 1 month 1 week ago #12

I have a bit of a different perspective, having a token store. I'd probably be keeping a larger percentage of them to add to the store than many would, and would correspondingly mulch fewer of them. But I do agree that more and more, except for a few exceptions each year, Rares and Uncommons aren't big sellers.

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