jedibcg wrote:
Jamie Campbell wrote: ...
I will say it again. I don't know that we have enough data to know if there is treasure inflation. At the UR level only I would say there is a trend for the 3 data points we have. The fourth data point we don't know if it valid or not. At OTHER (non pack rares, non pack uncommon, non monster bits). The 3 valid point show NO trend.
Jedi - I'll clarify a bit as I both agree and disagree with you.
What we know:
1. We know that the percent of UR's and similarly higher value items is lower than it has been in the past. The data gathered very clearly demonstrates that change over the past 4 years.
Just looking at GenCon:
2019 .30% on 7417 draws (a 25% decrease from the prior year)
2018 .41% on 5604 draws (a 36% decrease from the prior year)
2017 .64% on 9554 draws (a 63% decrease from the prior year)
2016 1.65% on 5507 draws
- My guess is the 2016 the UR rate was higher than TD intended as it is such as big variance from other years. We probably shouldn't treat that as a norm. It is also the first year we appear to have tracked the data. The UR rates are generally slightly higher at non GenCon conventions but the change delta for where we have a lot of data (Origins and GenCon) remains similar.
2. We know, from Jeff, that the total amount of treasure distributed is more (in terms of raw number of tokens given out as treasure) than it has been going from 2018 to 2019. We don't know if that is a function of more players or from the TE's.
-We can infer it is a mix of both. We know that most veterans are now getting more treasure pulls on each run. It is possible that vets have decreased the number of runs or ghosts they have, though. We also know more tickets for runs sold each year since 2016 (with one year somewhat flatlining because of fewer runs at GenCon than the prior year).
3. The percent of treasure that is only uncommons and rares has increased by 11% and 12% respectively (Uncommons: 35.26% to 39.70% and Rares: 35.54% to 39.98%). The prior 2 years, I believe (please correct me if I am recalling the data incorrectly), saw similar increases in the uncommons/rares as an overall percent of treasure (though, by smaller % increases).
4. Monster bit rates have floated a bit since 2016 from 23% to 34% with 2019 being an outlier at 17% that was an accident. It is also likely that 2018 was an outlier because we had more different monster bits that year than was normal probably resulting in that increase.
Trying to avoid derailing the original intent of the thread going into too much depth on what is really good for new players to get versus what vets want, we know that the percent of the lowest value items has increased of the overall draws. The odds of a new player (or anyone else) getting a UR has dropped by more than half in 2 years.
The draw inflation is a simple fact. Vets have more TE's. New players getting into UR's are getting more TE's than other tokens (they are the biggest sellers). The maximum draws by vets has increased by 4 over 3 years. We know more draws are done per run than have been done historically unless a huge swath of the vet base has left and not been replaced - there is no evidence that hundreds of vets have quit over the past 3 years. Dozens perhaps but we also see new players jumping in at the UR level in the forums as well.
Heading back to the original point - with the relative value of typical draws being diluted, new players are less likely to get a really valuable token and vets are more likely to get tokens that we'll mulch for trade goods and have more to mulch than in the past in gross amount terms.
I like the idea of capping TE's. I was incorrect at 25 before, 23 is a more likely number because of the next Ioun Stone (unless the transmute Jeff mentioned using AoTF further expands treasure - in which case, 25 may be a good cap). Stick with that cap long-term and let new players have other ways to get to that cap with new tokens. A suggestion was made of a new CoA recipe that might be slotless or slightly better - that's a great idea and may actually drive vets to switch.
-Capped TE's means TD will have a predictable model of how much treasure will be drawn and can balance percentages much more easily of what should be included.
One refrain keeps coming back frequently in this thread. New players should draw something immediately useful for them. There is a great case for having a newer player draw box that only has UCs, Rares, URs, Relics, and Legendaries with no other tokens (no monster bits, no gold UCs or Rares or gold bars, etc.) Every token drawn should be potentially usable in their next run. Maybe even seed it more with rare armor and weapons, healing potions, and scrolls.
It should have a cap on how many draws you can do (maybe 3 per wrist-band?) and a higher percent of URs+ than other boxes. Vets may draw from it some but, without monster bits or similar, they wouldn't do so exclusively.
Solving for the problem of vets getting massive poundage of draws, have the ability for us to save up our treasure draws and just give those to TD in lots of 25 or 100 or some large number for a bag with fewer tokens but similar value (ie trade goods instead of UCs and Rares) where 100 draws might equate to 5 or 10 tokens but would be ones we wouldn't have to transmute. It wouldn't even need to happen at the epilogue. Having this would mean TD would need fewer tokens for conventions (by a pretty significant amount - likely 20% or 30% fewer) and epilogues would go faster (and we'd not have to spend time and effort doing unnecessary transmutes).
Fred